The policy of loosening the property market in Baicheng still failed to be transmitted to the development end. On May 5, shell found a house and released the financing report of real estate enterprises in April. According to the report, the domestic and overseas bond financing of real estate enterprises totaled about 235 billion yuan in the first April of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, and the decline was significantly accelerated. Just a day ago, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the central bank simultaneously expressed their support for the reasonable financing needs of real estate and maintained the stability and order of real estate financing. In the view of the industry, from the local deregulation to the central position, the policy environment is gradually becoming more friendly to the property market, but it will take some time to be truly effective.
financing scale accelerated decline
According to the statistics of the shell Research Institute, from January to April 2022, the domestic and overseas bond financing of real estate enterprises totaled about 235 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41%, 2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of this year. Since the high level in 2018, the cumulative financing scale in the first April has declined significantly year by year, and the decline has accelerated significantly in 2022.
In April 2022 alone, there were 63 domestic and overseas bond financing issues in the real estate sector, a decrease of 23 over the previous month, and the issuance scale was equivalent to about 61.7 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 30% and a year-on-year decrease of 34%. Among them, the domestic bond financing in April was 53 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 25.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.7%. Overseas, overseas financing was equivalent to about 8.7 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 47.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 41.2%, and the scale of overseas financing accounted for less than 15% in a single month.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises are not optimistic: in the first quarter, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 3815.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%. China's loans amounted to 552.5 billion yuan, down 23.5%; The utilization of foreign capital was 1 billion yuan, down 7.8%; Self raised funds amounted to 1239.5 billion yuan, down 4.8%; Deposits and advance receipts amounted to 1225.2 billion yuan, down 31.0%.
"The policy transmission process really needs time." Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, analyzed this. Both policies and bank loans have not been substantially transmitted to real estate enterprises. It is expected that there is little possibility of a significant increase in the financing data of real estate enterprises in the first half of the year.
In 2022, the central government repeatedly mentioned the protection of the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate market. Banks in more than 100 cities across the country have independently lowered the mortgage interest rate according to market changes and their own business conditions, and more than 60 cities issued more than 100 real estate related policies in the first quarter.
Just one day ago, the central bank, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and other departments took place at the same time to support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises, including supporting the normal financing activities of real estate enterprises, allowing high-quality real estate enterprises to further expand the use of bonds to raise funds, encouraging high-quality real estate enterprises to issue corporate bonds, merge and purchase risky real estate enterprise projects, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry.
"Since the beginning of this year, the risks and challenges caused by covid-19 pneumonia and the crisis in Ukraine have increased, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of China's economic development environment have increased, which has deeply affected the real estate industry." Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the shell Research Institute, said that with the release of active policies by Chinese government organs at all levels, the repair of China's economy and real estate market is expected to speed up, and the cycle transmitted to the recovery of investor confidence will also be shortened.
domestic debt dominates
According to the data of Shell Research Institute, from January to April 2022, the scale of overseas bonds was about 44.2 billion yuan (RMB), a year-on-year decrease of 65%, and its scale proportion further fell to 19%, a decrease of 13 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021. The domestic financing scale was about 190.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30%, and its scale proportion increased to 81%.
"The current fluctuation of the overseas bond market is relatively large. The current situation of domestic bonds is related to a series of loose policies issued by the central bank and so on. On the whole, it is guiding the concentration of financing channels of real estate enterprises in China." Yan Yuejin analyzed this.
According to pan Hao, from the perspective of financing structure at home and abroad, 2020 is an obvious watershed. It is expected that the financing channels of China's real estate enterprises will be dominated by China in the long term in the future.
Pan Hao also analyzed that the later policy orientation will also affect the choice of financing channels for real estate enterprises. With the government's continuous efforts to stabilize the market and focus on the list of 12 real estate enterprises provided by the financial regulatory department to several major AMCs and 18 banks in the middle of the month, which will help prevent and resolve the debt risk of real estate enterprises. At this time, the financing direction of computer room enterprises may deviate from the direction of bank loans and borrowings. In addition, M & a related financing measures are still the focus of attention in the next step.
real estate enterprises' ability of "self hematopoiesis" is the key
According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, in April 2022, the scale of domestic and foreign bond financing matured debt was about 101.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.8% over the previous month and 26.3% year-on-year. The net matured debt was 39.6 billion, and the debt repayment gap rebounded to 40 billion. The debt pressure of real estate enterprises is still not small.
Pan Hao said that the key to the recovery of the debt service gap of enterprises to 40 billion is to test the "self hematopoietic" ability of real estate enterprises. In the seven days from April 29 to May 5, major cities across the country publicly issued encouraging and relaxing regulation policies 22 times, which was the same as the level of the whole month in March. The positive adjustment of urban regulation and the hope of warmer sales in the real estate market were also ignited. 2022 is a key year for real estate enterprises, The ability of "self hematopoiesis" of real estate enterprises will also accelerate the repair in a series of positive environments.
For the future, pan Hao expects that with the release of active policies of Chinese government organs at all levels, China's economy and real estate market are also expected to accelerate the repair with the policy.
