this May Day holiday, the “little sunny spring” of the real estate market, which was expected by developers in previous years, did not appear
Affected by the epidemic and other factors, the property market in many cities was depressed during the May Day holiday this year. Although the previous rescue policies were frequent, the overall effect was limited.
China index monitoring data show that from April 30 to May 4, the transaction area of new commercial houses in key monitoring cities decreased by 52.3% compared with last year’s May Day holiday.
multi city trading volume decline
The data show that except for the year-on-year increase in the trading volume of Beijing and Qingdao, the other cities have declined to varying degrees, especially in some cities in South China and the Yangtze River Delta
For example, in Shenzhen, the transaction area of the city during the May Day holiday this year was 17900 square meters, down 21% year-on-year. After the resumption of work and production in April, the Shenzhen property market showed signs of recovery, and the number of people looking at the market also increased during May Day. In the first round of land supply just now, the eight residential land sold by the city have been photographed to the upper limit of land price. In the view of the Chinese Academy, this is a sign of the restoration of the confidence of the city.
In terms of cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the transaction areas of Suzhou and Nanjing during May Day were 20700 square meters and 40600 square meters respectively, both down 67% compared with the same period in 2021; The transaction area in Hangzhou was 11700 square meters, a year-on-year decline of 75%, and that in Wenzhou was even more than 80%.
The transaction situation in Shanghai is also not optimistic affected by the epidemic, Shanghai entered the closure period in April, and the property market was almost shut down Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate data show that in April, the transaction area of new commercial houses in Shanghai was only 97200 square meters, a month on month decrease of 82.86%.
According to the chief analyst of Shanghai Centaline real estate, the closed control state of Shanghai will continue in the short term, and the trading volume is expected to remain low in May.
favorable policies occur frequently
Since the second half of last year, the property market began to enter the downward channel. Affected by the repeated epidemic, the downward pressure on the industry has intensified.
According to Kerui data, in April this year, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 key monitoring cities decreased by 18% month on month and expanded to 58% year-on-year. The monthly performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in April decreased by 58.6% year-on-year and 16.2% month on month, with a month on month decline greater than that in the same period in recent years
The recession of the industry has also promoted the introduction of policies to stabilize the real estate market.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, in the first four months of this year, nearly 120 cities across the country have issued real estate policies, and the number of various real estate regulation policies is as high as 238, much higher than 186 in the same period last year.
among them, the policy “blowout” in April set a new record. More than 70 cities, including Quzhou, Qinhuangdao, Mianyang, Lanzhou and Dalian, have issued loose real estate policies, which mainly involve adjusting the purchase restriction policy, reducing the proportion of down payment, issuing house purchase subsidies, modifying the sales restriction policy, encouraging multi child families to buy houses, and providing financial support for real estate enterprises
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, pointed out that the current policy content is mainly to promote rigid demand and improve the release of demand. However, from the perspective of policy effect, the confidence of home buyers has not been restored, and the market activity is still insufficient.
april 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to emphasize the need to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and support all localities to improve real estate policies, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market
In the view of many people in the industry, the meeting is to set the tone for the easing of real estate policy. Yihan think tank said that although some cities had previously adjusted their real estate policies, the number of cities that really implemented substantive easing was still small and the strength of the policies was weak.
Zhang Dawei also said that the setting of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 is conducive to the introduction of policies by provinces and cities in accordance with the principle of “implementing policies according to cities”. in the future, more cities may introduce policies, and the strength of policies is expected to be strengthened
However, he also stressed that the current trend of the real estate market is not only the policy market, but also depends on the epidemic control. “The change of the epidemic has a great impact on the market, especially in the silent area, and it will take a long time for the market to gradually adapt”.
