Food and beverage are still the main configuration. The actual proportion of the track is the third, and the excess proportion is the second. We made statistics of four types of funds: common stock funds, partial stock mixed funds, peaceful mixed funds and flexible allocation funds, representing the positions of active equity funds, and analyzed the changes of positions in the food and beverage sector. 22q1 food and beverage sector active equity fund heavy holdings accounted for 12.60%, a decrease of 1.24pct compared with 21q4; The over allocation ratio was 5.85%, with a decrease of 0.85 PCT month on month; During the reporting period, the actual allocation proportion ranked third in CITIC’s first-class industry, and the over allocation proportion ranked second in all industries. The industry boom and configuration demand remained high.
Each sub circuit in the sector: the positions are concentrated in Baijiu, beer and dairy products, and Baijiu continues to be oversupplied.
From the change of the proportion of the total market value of holdings: in 22q1, except for quick-frozen food (accounting for 0.14%, with a month on month change of 0.05pct, the same below) / meat products (0.07%, 0.04pct) / dairy products (0.92%, 0.02pct), the proportion of fund holdings increased, and other sectors were reduced, The order of reduction degree from high to low: Baijiu (10.67%, -1.00pct) / other liquor (0.10%, -0.10pct) / beer (0.38%, -0.09pct) / other food (0.10%, -0.08pct) / snack food (0.09%, -0.06pct) / condiment (0.10%, -0.02pct) / non dairy beverage (0.04%, -0.004pct). The reduction of Baijiu shares was mainly due to the outbreak of local epidemics in China since March and the market expectation that the terminal sales were blocked. The increase of quick-frozen food holdings may benefit from the demand driven by the epidemic. From the proportion of positions in the food and beverage sector: from high to low:
Baijiu (84.6%) / dairy products (7.3%) / beer (3%) / quick frozen foods (1.1%) / other foods (0.8%) / other wines (0.8%) / condiments (0.8%) / snack foods (0.7%) / meat products (0.6%) / non dairy beverages (0.3%). In terms of the proportion of super / low allocation, the four sub sectors are over allocated: Baijiu (5.86%) / dairy products (0.26%) / beer (0.23%) / quick freezing (0.07%), and the rest are under allocated: condiments (-0.34%) / other foods (-0.12%) / snack foods (-0.10%) / meat products (-0.07%) / non dairy drinks (-0.04%) / other wines (-0.001%).
From the top 20 positions of the sector: 10 seats for Baijiu, 2 seats for beer, 1 seat for condiments / other wines / dairy products / quick-frozen food, which is the same as that of 21q4, and there is no change in the specific targets within the sector; In contrast, other foods and meat products will increase by one seat respectively, namely By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) (leader of health products) and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (leader of slaughtering industry); Non dairy drinks and snack foods will be reduced by one seat respectively, namely Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) . It is worth noting that, except for Baijiu, the fund is more willing to allocate food segmentation leaders that benefit from the epidemic, have reasonable valuation and controllable cost.
From the perspective of individual stocks in the sector: Baijiu is differentiated in the high-end, sub high-end and local liquor sectors, and beer may be collectively underweight due to cost side pressure, but it is still over allocated; The position of beverage and dairy products is concentrated to the leader, and most of them are slightly reduced except Yili; The willingness of food allocation decreased, and the actual proportion and over proportion of quick-frozen sector benefiting from the epidemic ranked first.
Investment suggestions: in combination with the above discussion, we believe that the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the long-term trend of structural prosperity of the Baijiu industry, and the sector valuation and fundamentals are certain. We recommend targets with high certainty and the margin is expected to continue to improve: Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ; It’s suggested to focus on the public. It’s suggested to focus on the public. It’s suggested to focus on the following: attention is focused on the following: the Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) etc.
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenarios, the risk of higher than expected rise in raw material costs, food safety risks, etc.
