May allocation view: the deduction of steady growth may enter a new stage
Review: our view in April is extremely peaceful. We believe that although the fundamental factors that suppress the upward trend of the market are difficult to eliminate in the short term, it also further strengthens the expectation of stable growth of policies. In terms of macro clues, we can focus on the combination layout of real estate + inflation + medicine in the early stage, and the oversold growth represented by electronics, military industry and new energy in the later stage may be dominant. At present, the interpretation of stable growth by the market may enter a new stage. At the index level, the market generally fell sharply in April, and the median rise and fall range of the whole market was - 16.7%. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and China Stock Exchange 100 were relatively resistant to decline, and gem and China Stock Exchange 1000 led the decline. At the industry level, food and beverage and consumer services closed up, while the rest closed down, with computers, power equipment and new energy, media, light industry, machinery and other sectors leading the decline. Our gold stock portfolio fell by 8.72% in April. Since its establishment in February 2017, the cumulative portfolio return of China Thailand gold stock portfolio has been 194.5%, and the excess return relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 175.9%. Among the gold stock portfolio in April, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (+ 1.20%), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (+ 0.16%), Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) (- 0.50%), etc.
At present, the opportunities of A-Shares outweigh the risks. Overseas, the market mainly focuses on the Fed's table contraction, and the differences mainly focus on two points. First, the Fed's action lags behind the yield curve, and the attitude of raising interest rates and table contraction may become increasingly tough under inflationary pressure. The market expects the Fed's policy interest rate to be around 2.25% by the end of the year. Second, the marginal tightening of monetary policy and high inflation have begun to curb demand, and the risk of downward revision of GDP growth expectation may slow down the Fed's tightening. For the equity market, this pattern has been reflected since the beginning of the year. The continuous rise of interest rates suppresses the overall valuation of the market, and the market style value leads the growth. However, the matching degree between the two valuations and profits gradually converges. This situation may continue until the US bond yield is really confirmed to peak. With the slowdown of interest rate action and the gradual easing of inflationary pressure, the growth style may gradually dominate. From the perspective of China, the market mainly focuses on the epidemic situation and the change of steady growth policies. After the Politburo meeting, the change of Internet platform and real estate policies and the expectation of resumption of work and production have boosted the market risk appetite. The overall market valuation is becoming more and more attractive to absolute return funds. We believe that the opportunity of A-Shares in the current position is greater than the risk.
The interpretation of steady growth may enter a new stage. The main directions of the market in the near future can be divided into three categories: high growth of quarterly performance, steady growth game and oversold rebound. The overall performance of Baijiu, coal and other sectors maintained a high growth rate in the first quarter, and the recent excess return was obvious. However, with the disclosure of the first quarter report, the subsequent trend of performance beneficiary stocks may be differentiated. The State Council issued its opinions on further releasing the consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption, and the recognition of short-term funds for large consumption sectors may be higher; In terms of steady growth direction, the management said that it would introduce more vigorous policies to stabilize the GDP growth in the second quarter, which strengthened the market's expectations for infrastructure investment. At the same time, all localities have gradually loosened the restrictions on the demand side of real estate, and the expectation of the reversal of the plight of the real estate industry has further increased. However, after a long time and substantial rise, the game characteristics of this direction are becoming stronger and stronger; The oversold rebound direction is mainly around the track sectors such as new energy, semiconductor and military industry, which have heavy institutional positions. The internal differentiation of track stocks is obvious. The lower than expected performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the first quarter may hinder the recovery of market risk appetite again, but we prefer that this is an unexpected attack. On the premise that there are no major problems in the company's operation, the final impact on the market should be controllable. Looking ahead to the market in May, the deduction of steady growth may enter a new stage. It is suggested to pay more attention to the growth of Listed Companies in the allocation direction. For absolute income funds, the current valuation of many high-quality companies has both winning and losing odds.
Gold stock portfolio in May:
From top to bottom, combining with our industry's monthly portfolio, from top to bottom, and combining with our industry's monthly portfolio, the gold stock recommendations for the Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.Ltd(600639) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) and consumption 50ETF.
Risk tips:
The monthly research opinions and key recommended targets are based on the judgment of each industry group on the fundamentals and profitability of the next month. Each industry has its economic and policy premise before making the final recommendation, and there may be economic and policy inconsistencies with our expectations.
