2021q4 / 2022q1: year on year revenue + 7% / + 0.3%, net profit attributable to parent company – 55.3% / – 21.1%.
We selected CS machinery as the sample. In 2021q4 / 2022q1, the revenue of the sector was + 7.0% / + 0.3pct year-on-year, the growth margin slowed down, and the net profit attributable to the parent of the sector was – 55.3% / – 21.1% year-on-year, showing a significant negative growth.
Revenue side: photovoltaic lithium battery equipment continues to increase, oil and gas, mining equipment inflection point, a new round of shipbuilding cycle may have been started, the service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) is stable, and only high-altitude operation platform in construction machinery is strong. From 2021q4 to 2022q1, lithium battery equipment (+ 150.4% / 144.1%) and photovoltaic equipment (+ 45.5% / 90.4%) increased year-on-year, oil and gas equipment (+ 25.3% / 11.2%) achieved double-digit growth year-on-year, showing signs of improvement, and the growth rate of mining metallurgy accelerated month on month (+ 3.4% / + 14.5%) China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) revenue growth accelerated year-on-year (+ 21.0% / + 30.4%), inventory and advance revenue continued to increase, and a new shipbuilding cycle may have started; Service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) revenue growth (+ 37.9% / + 25.7%) was relatively stable; The aerial work platform achieved high growth (+ 95.5% / + 49.0%).
Net profit attributable to the parent company: most sectors have negative growth, lithium photovoltaic continues to maintain strong growth, the growth rate of mining metallurgy exceeds that of revenue, the service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) is stable, and the aerial work platform fluctuates highly. In 2021q4 / 2022q1, lithium (+ 1565.1% / + 55.9%), photovoltaic (+ 36.8% / + 56.2%) was still the strongest sector, the growth rate of mining and metallurgy profit (+ 36.1% / + 39.0%) exceeded the growth rate of revenue, the growth rate of service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) was steady (+ 31.3% / 15.1%), the growth rate of aerial work platform fluctuated highly (+ 252.6% / + 15.1%), and the profitability of other sectors decreased for at least one quarter. Among them, the construction machinery, forklift and elevator sectors have declined for four consecutive quarters, 3C equipment Railway transportation equipment, instruments and meters, plastic processing equipment and lifting and transportation equipment fell for three consecutive quarters, while laser processing equipment, shipbuilding and basic parts fell for two consecutive quarters. There is not only downward pressure on revenue growth, but also disturbance from cost side factors such as rising prices of raw materials and rising sea freight.
The valuation quantile of 7 sub sectors is less than 5%, and that of 13 sub sectors is less than 25%. At present, among the 21 sub sectors of machinery, 7 are valued within the 5% quantile, including aerial working platform (0.2%), industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and industrial control system (0.5%), service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) (0.9%), lithium battery equipment (2.4%), laser processing equipment (3.8%), etc; There are 6 quantiles within 5% – 25%, including mine metallurgy (13.6%), photovoltaic equipment (14.2%), nuclear power equipment (16.4%), machine tool equipment (16.7%), etc.
Investment suggestion: raw material pressure and epidemic situation are repeated, and the machinery standard is still under pressure. We think we need to pay attention to certainty in the near future. We suggest to refer to several directions for layout: 1) under the background of upstream inflation, the layout of mining machinery benefiting, such as Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , etc; 2) With the change of anti epidemic policies, the steady growth of Tuoji construction real estate is clear, and the benefit margin of construction machinery is expected to reverse, such as Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , etc; 3) The cost of raw materials affects the detection sector of desensitization, such as Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) , Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) etc; 4) The leading advantage in the subdivided track has been established, and the invisible champion with steady growth, such as Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187) , Warom Technology Incorporated Company(603855) , Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , etc; 5) Companies with long-term competitive advantages in new energy equipment. Such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , etc.
1) repeated epidemic situation is lower than expected, leading to macro-economic recovery risk; 2) The continuous rise in the price of raw materials leads to the continuous downward risk of gross profit margin; 3) Risk of continued upward sea freight
