The performance of emerging directions has been fulfilled, and the value of high-performance targets has been highlighted. Through the classified statistical analysis of 555 targets in the machinery industry, this paper analyzes the operation of the machinery industry in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 (for details, refer to the summary of 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter report of the machinery industry issued on May 5: the performance of emerging directions is realized, and the value of high-performance targets is highlighted). In 2021, the machinery industry achieved a total revenue of 212456 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, accounting for 2.8% of the revenue in a shares, and ranking 14th in Shenwan class The revenue growth rates of internal combustion engine, lithium battery equipment and photovoltaic equipment were 98.5%, 78.8% and 61.6% respectively, ranking among the top three. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the machinery industry totaled 139.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company accounted for 2.4% of the A shares, and ranked 11th in the shenwanyi sector The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of agricultural machinery, lithium battery equipment and printing and packaging machinery was + 963.2%, + 173.4% and + 160.4% respectively. The performance growth rate ranked among the top three. In 2021, the average gross profit margin of the machinery industry was 22.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3 percentage points. Among the 23 segments of the machinery industry, the gross profit margin of 5 segments increased year-on-year and that of 18 segments decreased year-on-year. In 2021, the average net interest rate of the machinery industry was 6.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. Among the 23 segments of the machinery industry, the net interest rate of 14 segments increased year-on-year in 2021, and the net interest rate of 9 segments decreased year-on-year. In 2022q1, the machinery industry achieved a revenue of 457511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a month on month decrease of 22.9%. Lithium equipment (+ 110.3%), photovoltaic equipment (+ 101.3%) and semiconductor equipment (+ 45.9%) ranked among the top three in the year-on-year growth of revenue in 2022q1. In 2022q1, the machinery industry realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5% and a month on month increase of 122.7%. Abrasives and abrasives (+ 180.9%), textile and garment machinery (+ 140.8%), lithium battery equipment (+ 78.7%), and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 ranked among the top three.
The differentiation and evolution of photovoltaic cell technology under different application scenarios, and pay attention to the investment opportunities of module series welding equipment.
At present, the capacity of perc battery equipment is relatively sufficient, and n-type battery is expected to become the mainstream choice of centralized power stations in the future. Comparing the two technical routes of TOPCON and hjt, hjt is in-situ doping realized by coating and junction, which is easy to achieve higher mass production conversion efficiency; The advantage of TOPCON is that it is easier to realize steep process curve and yield improvement based on the existing perc process experience. At present, the two technical routes are still in the game period.
Under the condition of photovoltaic installed capacity growth, the production capacity of TOPCON with lower static system cost is the best choice in the short term, and the cost intersection of hjt and TOPCON determines the opportunity cost of starting the iteration cycle of TOPCON. The profitability of the module segment is expected to improve and is expected to attract additional capital expenditure based on the growth of photovoltaic installation. Serial welding has the highest technical iteration frequency in the component subdivision link. High precision serial welding is a necessary option for multi main grid technology and is compatible with a variety of metallization processes for a long time. At present, the iteration of high-precision serial welding technology is superimposed in the same direction with the growth of component capacity demand, and the demand for component serial welding equipment has a high probability of excessive release.
Pay attention to the changes of industrial environment and optimize high barrier links. The demand for lithium battery equipment broke out in the second half of 2020, which led to the priority locking of the production capacity of high-quality lithium battery equipment, and even demand overflow. The main bottleneck of the leading operation of lithium battery equipment is the transfer of production capacity. At the same time, the market concentration shows a downward trend. Observing the changes in the industrial environment, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other first-line manufacturers may gradually transition the new production capacity to the large production capacity mode, so as to put forward higher requirements for the production rate of equipment manufacturers, and the concentration of equipment manufacturers with high technical barriers will be improved. In 2022, lithium battery equipment procurement is still in the business cycle, but we should still pay attention to the negative impact of the contradiction between upstream supply and demand on the profit distribution of the industrial chain, and beware of delayed turnover and weak cash flow.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations, policy reform, lower than expected capital expenditure, intensified industry competition, and less than expected progress of localization and technological transformation.
