After combing the income and profitability of the household, paper, textile and garment industries in 2021 and 2022q1, we believe that the industry has experienced recovery in 21 years, as well as events such as Evergrande black swan and base pressure. Since Q1 of 22 years ago, the external environmental disturbance has made the profits of several major sectors still have to wait for the turnaround.
The overall revenue side of the furniture industry performs well, and the profitability of soft furniture is stable. In 2021, the overall revenue of major enterprises in the customized furniture sector increased by + 27% year-on-year; Net profit attributable to parent company – 37% year-on-year; Excluding the three companies with more provision for credit impairment, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is + 6%. The overall income of major enterprises in the soft furniture sector (Gu Jia, Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ) was + 38% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 27% year-on-year. In 2021, the furniture industry benefited from the recovery of completion and consumption rebound, and the overall income increased rapidly. On the profit side, soft furniture enterprises achieved higher profit growth with strong price raising ability, and the performance growth of customized furniture enterprises was affected by the price rise of raw materials and credit impairment. In 2022q1, the overall revenue growth of the industry remains resilient, the growth rate of profit side software enterprises is high, and customized enterprises are under pressure in the short term. Customization enterprises continue to make efforts in the direction of channel diversification and category expansion, new categories grow rapidly, and the whole packaging channel continues to be in large volume. The prosperity of the soft furniture industry is high, and the leading companies actively expand their stores, which can be expected to grow in the future.
The prosperity of the paper sector was high before and low after 2021, and the profitability margin of 22q1 was improved. In 2021, the revenue of pulp and paper bulk paper sector was + 21% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 40% year-on-year; The revenue of the bulk paper sector of waste paper is + 25% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is – 0% year-on-year; The income of household paper sector was + 2% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 27% year-on-year; The revenue of special cardboard blocks was + 27% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 44% year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the price of pulp and paper products was boosted by the rise of wood pulp price, and the profitability of cultural paper, white cardboard and special paper was particularly bright. In the second half of the year, with the rise in the cost of raw materials and energy for papermaking, the weak downstream demand suppressed the paper price, and the profitability of paper enterprises was generally under pressure. Since the first quarter of 2022, benefiting from the rise of pulp price and the improvement of supply and demand, pulp and paper products have ushered in price increase, while energy costs have fallen month on month, and the profit margin of paper enterprises has improved. In the future, we will pay attention to the further price increase of paper enterprises, transmit the cost pressure, and look forward to the release of demand in the peak season to boost the prosperity of the industry.
The prosperity of textile manufacturing is better than that of clothing, and the sports track still has advantages. 1) In 2021, the performance of clothing and home textile industry was high before and low after. The recovery trend was good in the first half of the year, and there were many base pressure and external disturbance factors in the second half of the year. In 2021, the income of clothing and home textile industry was + 7.79% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 127% year-on-year. The profit recovered significantly. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue of the section was 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.68%, and the net profit was 2.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 31%. The profit pressure was obvious. 2) Textile manufacturing in 2021 shows a boom in domestic and foreign orders as a whole, and raw materials and operating rate are favorable to profit margin. In 2021, the revenue of textile manufacturing industry was + 24% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was + 115% year-on-year, with full profit elasticity. In 2022q1, the revenue of textile manufacturing sector was 29.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12%, which was significantly better than that of clothing and home textile sector. 3) The track advantage of sportswear remains: on the brand side, Chinese companies accelerate to increase their share and pay more attention to operation quality. At the OEM end, the leading share continues to improve, the performance is differentiated, and the future orders are optimistic.
Investment suggestion: recommend leading furniture enterprises that focus on expanding categories and channels, Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) . In terms of papermaking, it is suggested to pay attention to pulp and paper integrated paper enterprises with more definite profit improvement month on month, such as Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , as well as special paper enterprises with better profitability. For textile and clothing, it is still recommended to pay attention to boom track sportswear companies, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, etc; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the resilience under the epidemic and the elastic target after the epidemic, such as Home Textile Leader Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic downturn affects purchasing power, the epidemic development exceeds expectations, and policy risks.
