At the end of the May Day holiday, A-Shares rebounded before the holiday, which augured well for the market in May.
When the Fed raised interest rates overnight, Powell said that the next step was to raise interest rates by 50 basis points. Originally, the market generally expected the “King bombing” of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June. Now the “King bombing” is gone, and US stocks rose sharply, creating a good peripheral market environment for today’s a shares.
At the same time, A-Shares also withstood the pressure of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) sharp decline today, ushering in a good general rally pattern. If it were not for these two “thunder”, today’s market would be better.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price plummeted, which is expected. The daily turnover of 22.2 billion yuan today shows great differences.
Those who are optimistic about “ningwang” think that this is like Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) on October 29, 2018. The share price fell by the limit because the performance was lower than expected. Now it seems that the profit released in the third quarter of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2017 resulted in a relatively high performance base, resulting in the year-on-year data of the third quarter of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 2018.
It is also a difficult time for the consumer index to fall to the bottom of the ice in 2018, but it is also a difficult time for the market to see that the correction of the leading performance index is less than the top of the ice in 2018.
By comparison, the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) decline this time is due to the decline in gross profit margin caused by the sharp rise in the price of upstream lithium carbonate, but the market share is gradually increasing. The Institutional Interpretation believes that the low growth rate of performance in the first quarter will not change the long-term pattern.
Those who are not optimistic about “ningwang” believe that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the case of price increase in the upstream, the cost is not smoothly transmitted to the downstream, which shows that the company’s competitive barrier is not as strong as expected. Although the market share is high, it may be a historical high. After that, the market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may gradually fall back to a new equilibrium point.
It is also difficult for DAGO to assert which view Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) prefers. Looking back on the rise of “ningwang”, there has always been controversy, and there are different opinions on the performance. There is no need to rush to a conclusion now. Just look at the performance of “ningwang” in the second quarter. If the company is still a reliable and good company, the gross profit margin and performance in the second quarter will be repaired.
Since there is a fundamental analogy between Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) at that time, the third quarterly report of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) was not as expected, and the stock price adjusted for two months. Now Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) wants to return to trillion market value at once, I’m afraid it’s difficult.
Another episode is the Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) limit. I won’t say much about the reasons here. This has caused concerns in other sectors, and several cro stocks also fell as a result.
Under the background of great changes that have not been seen in a century, it is not surprising that technology companies such as Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) which account for a relatively high proportion of overseas business and have a high profit margin encounter obstacles overseas. The road for large companies to expand outward is relatively difficult, but this is also a road they have to take. For such companies with stable performance, falling share prices is not a bad thing. There is no need to be discouraged by a temporary decline.
On the disk, those leading the rise are familiar faces. One is mainly agriculture, medicine, retail and infrastructure. These stocks were relatively strong before and made up for the decline recently; Now it is a strong sector following the market rebound, stimulated by policy support or news. The other is the high boom sector, which has a large decline recently and continues to rebound now, mainly including national defense and military industry, auto parts and semiconductors.
The two directions together constitute the main pattern of this round of market rebound. The core question now is which direction will become the mainstream. To be honest, it is difficult to maintain the strength of the middle line, but it is still unknown whether the follow-up index can win in these two directions. To follow the index rebound, the boom sector with good performance may be more elastic. “Only children can make choices, and adults can have them all”. The layout in both directions is more stable.
Technically, the two directions also constitute two different trend structures. The boom sector structure is mostly similar to the market. Individual stocks and sectors can use whether they can pass the pressure level near 3100 point of Shanghai stock index on April 22 as a reference, which is also the method used before; The structure of the strong sector is a box shock, which needs to wait for the opportunity of callback. There is also an obviously weak structure, mainly brokerage stocks. DAGO said in his notes yesterday, so I won’t comment more.
But also because today is a general rise pattern, the main line is difficult to see clearly. If we have to find a clear main line for today’s market, it is oversold rebound. The random oversold rebound is juxtaposed with the oversold rebound supported by performance. Speaking of oversold rebound, the most classic is Hengli Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(000622) , October 2018.
However, so far, the market has not come out with high recognition stocks like Hengli Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(000622) at that time. From another perspective, it is also a good thing that the “real dragon” has not appeared, which means that there is still trading space next. Therefore, the next focus is only one, to find the sector direction that is sustainable and ahead of the market.
Yesterday, it was said that the Shanghai stock index was under pressure near 3100. From today’s index, this sign is still very obvious. In the next few days, the Shanghai stock index may fluctuate around the range of 3000 points to 3100 points, and then there will be pressure to attack 3100 points. In the process of left to right outburst, the callback should be treated as an opportunity. If the callback range is too deep, or the upward attack is always weak above 3100, the range of this round of market rebound will be doubted.
Generally speaking, it is normal for an effective rebound to last for 3-4 weeks. Now it is in the early stage of the rebound, so there is no need to worry for the time being. It is estimated that in the next 1-3 trading days, the main line will see the true chapter in the process of index shock. General inflation will change from disorder to order, from random to logical. Wait for the market to gradually emerge its main line. Just don’t worry.
Today is the beginning of summer. After the beginning of summer, the temperature will gradually rise, and the temperature of A-Shares may also gradually warm up. Looking ahead, the overall situation we are facing in May is that the restorative profit is better than the bad news of continuous fermentation, and the rebound can be viewed positively. Make bold assumptions and trade cautiously.
