In 2021, the sales volume of electric vehicles exceeded the market expectation. In 2022q1, China’s demand was strong and not weak in the off-season.
In 2021, 6.31 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide, with a year-on-year increase of + 119%, of which China (including exports) and overseas electric vehicles sold 352 / 3 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 158% / + 78%; In 2022q1, China and overseas sold 1.26/83million vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 139% / + 39%. China’s terminal demand was strong and maintained a year-on-year increase. The total revenue of the 95 enterprises we selected in 2021 was 2313.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 124.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 95%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 35.9 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 14%; The revenue of 2022q1 was 666.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 33% and – 6.55% month on month. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 50.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 108% and + 42% month on month. Among them, the leaders in all links performed prominently, and the profits of the upstream and middle reaches of lithium batteries with price elasticity increased significantly.
In 2021, the performance of the sub section increased year-on-year, the performance of the middle reaches of lithium battery was brilliant, and the performance of the upper reaches of 2022q1 increased month on month, Pressure on the profit of battery end: the year-on-year growth rate of net profit deducted from non parent in 2021 is copper foil (120359%) positive electrode (897.44%) upstream material (399.62%) lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte (322.73%) structural parts (260.95%) lithium battery equipment (241.17%) negative electrode (231.11%) battery (165.70%) diaphragm (148.75%) core parts (49.78%) whole vehicle (37.98%). The sequence of the month on month growth rate of net profit deducted from non parent company in 2022q1: whole vehicle (419.70%, excluding Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ) upstream materials (113.89%) core parts (79%) lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte (55.20%) positive electrode (54.61%) negative electrode (26.99%) copper foil (21.26%, excluding Zhongyi Technology) diaphragm (11.13%) structural parts (5.07%) lithium battery equipment (- 2.48%) battery (- 76.77%). The month on month growth rate of the whole vehicle is high because the depreciation, amortization and impairment are mostly accrued in Q4.
In 2021, the industry’s profitability increased year-on-year, with the growth rate of price elasticity leading. In 2022q1, the profitability of upstream materials, electrolyte and other price elasticity links further improved month on month: in 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the sector was 15.06%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.65pct, among which the growth rate of diaphragm, upstream materials, copper foil and other links took the lead; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 5.38%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.78pct The off-season of 2022q1 is not light, and the gross profit margin is 17.22%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.51pct and a month-on-month increase of 3.24pct, of which the upstream materials and electrolyte links have increased significantly month on month; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 7.64%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.76 PCT and a month on month increase of 2.60 PCT; During the period, the expense rate was 6.07 PCT, a year-on-year decrease of 1.17 PCT and a month on month increase of 0.29 PCT.
The operation capacity of the industry will be improved in 2021; In 2022q1, due to the demand for goods preparation, the inventory increased significantly compared with the beginning of the year, and the cash flow decreased significantly compared with the month on month: the overall accounts receivable of the sector at the end of 2021 was 289647 billion yuan, an increase of 21.30% compared with the beginning of the year; The amount received in advance was 97.971 billion yuan, an increase of 45.51% over the beginning of the year; The inventory reached 345286 billion yuan, an increase of 37.97% over the beginning of the year. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from operating activities of the sector was 236722 billion yuan in 2021 and 155843 billion yuan in the same period in 2020. In 2022, the accounts receivable of Q1 sector was 319862 billion yuan, an increase of 10.43% over the beginning of the year; The inventory was 413608 billion yuan, an increase of 19.79% over the beginning of the year, mainly due to the rise of raw materials. The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 93.11% and a month on month decrease of 98.79%,
Investment suggestion: the valuation of core companies has fallen back to 12-30 times this year and 9-22 times next year, which is at the bottom of history. Although the growth rate of Q2 has slowed down due to the epidemic, it still continues to rise, and generally maintains a high growth of 70-100% throughout the year. We are optimistic about the reversal of the electric vehicle sector. Watch the battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , followed by Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , and pay attention to the second line Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ; Followed by the global leading diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ), negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ) and undervalued electrolyte ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ); Thirdly, the high nickel ternary cathode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ), lithium iron manganese phosphate ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The fourth is the upstream resource lithium (focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), copper foil (recommended Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ), etc.
Risk tips: price competition exceeds market expectations, raw material prices fluctuate, and investment growth declines
