The latest strategic views of the top ten securities companies are fresh, as follows:
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the four repressive factors turned for the better and the four main lines rose in May
The four major factors affecting the market in the early stage have taken a turn one after another. The pressure of forced selling in the market has been fully released, and the extreme pessimism has been gradually repaired. It is expected that the medium-term repair market lasting for several months will start from May. It is suggested to actively lay out the four main investment lines. First of all, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has improved significantly. The Politburo meeting once again stressed the coordination of economic development and epidemic prevention. Secondly, the decision-making level once again comprehensively set the tone and responded to market concerns in the dimensions of infrastructure development, real estate support, relief of market players and healthy development of platform economy. Thirdly, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reduced its table in May, and the trade friction environment or phased improvement under the heavy pressure of overseas inflation. Finally, the first quarterly report of listed companies landed, and the market entered the performance vacuum period and confidence recovery period. After the adjustment in April, extreme pessimism has been fully released, and the market has passed the period with the greatest pressure of forced selling. Recently, some funds have begun to be actively distributed, and investors are also extremely sensitive to positive signals on the margin. Therefore, with the positive signals of the four major factors affecting the market, the medium-term repair market lasting for several months is expected to start in May.
It is suggested to actively lay out the four main lines of modern infrastructure, real estate, resumption of work and production and consumption restoration. For the whole year, it is suggested to focus on modern infrastructure and real estate layout, focusing on undervalued construction leaders, power grid, data center and cloud infrastructure in the infrastructure field, and high-quality developers, property management and building materials in the real estate field. In the quarterly dimension, it is suggested to actively increase the relevant industries that return to work and production, focusing on smart cars and parts, semiconductors, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc. In the monthly dimension, it is suggested to focus on aviation, hotels, duty-free, food and beverage and department store supermarkets related to consumption repair. It is expected that these industries will also usher in phased recovery under a package of policies such as the regression of large-scale epidemic, the relief of market players and consumption stimulation.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : keep the target of steady growth unchanged and grasp the opportunity of oversold rebound
On April 29, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee continued the growth target of 5.5%, and the relevant policies were further strengthened and accelerated, which will guide the market to unify its expectations of the economy and policy strength. At noon on April 29, after the release of the communique of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, A-Shares rebounded and recovered 3000 points, the RMB exchange rate stopped falling and rebounded, and the risk appetite of A-Shares recovered significantly. It is suggested to seize the opportunity of oversold rebound.
Pay attention to three main line opportunities: the steady growth market continues, the effect of promoting consumption can be expected, and the growth main line is worth looking forward to. We believe that in combination with the driving point of the stable growth policy of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the three main opportunities deserve attention. ① Stable growth chain has strong certainty and over allocation value. Focus on the investment opportunities brought by Comprehensively Strengthening the regulation and control policies of infrastructure and real estate, as well as the allocation opportunities of upstream and downstream building materials and banking sectors. ② The promotion fee policy is expected to be introduced one after another, the superimposed epidemic prevention and control is expected to gradually achieve results, the economic cost of epidemic prevention is expected to decline, and the certainty of residents’ consumption recovery is gradually emerging. Pay attention to the valuation and repair of food and beverage, medicine and Biology, grasp the price rise of mandatory consumer goods and the “rush” opportunities related to the recovery of service travel chains. ③ There is a need for valuation repair after oversold on the main growth line. In addition, pay close attention to the positive boosting effect of the policy released by the “introduction of specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy” after the “completion of special rectification” of the platform economy.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : Policy intensive statement to stabilize the military heart of the market and ensure the positive layout of fundamentals
The short-term sentiment is too pessimistic, the policy is positive, the market sentiment is stabilized, the medium-term fundamentals support the bottom range, and the peripheral factors may also show positive changes. First, the most serious stage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have passed; Secondly, China EU and China US relations have shown positive changes since the summit; In addition, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table is relatively sufficient; Finally, the current outflow of foreign capital does not have a macro environment similar to that in 2015, such as the continuous sharp depreciation of the RMB and the continuous downturn of the economy.
It is preferred to underestimate the value under the defensive idea, but when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, A-Shares may usher in a growth moment. At present, the core difference for new energy and other tracks lies in whether the performance is at an inflection point. In the track investment, the research and judgment of the inflection point of the growth curve is the most critical. For example, in 2017, apple mobile phone shipments ushered in a downward inflection point, and the relevant sectors obviously continued to adjust. Take new energy vehicles as an example. Since 2019, the continuous excess return of the sector has been accompanied by the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. The inflection point of the growth curve of the new energy sector is still difficult to see in the short term, and the medium – and long-term logic is difficult to falsify.
Industry configuration: photovoltaic and other new energy sectors stabilized and rebounded; TMT sector with high cost performance is arranged on the left; Pay attention to the allocation value of securities companies; Gradually pay attention to the sectors benefiting from the epidemic mitigation: the expectations of business consumption such as high-end Baijiu are quite poor.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : it is expected to rebound in the short term. Tactically, it pays attention to switching rather than attack
With the catalysis of short-term marginal factors, the orderly opening and resumption of work in Shanghai and the landing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, it is expected that A-Shares will rebound in the first half of May. However, as the profit outlook and the path of credit easing are still vague, we believe that the stock market has not yet had the opportunity to reverse, and the rebound is still dominated by weak index consolidation and structural opportunities. In the rebound, we believe that the tactical focus is not on attack, but on style switching, from growth to value, and growth rebound should be switched. The correction of supply chain supply capacity is not the core contradiction of the current market. The core of the market lies in the necessity of demand recovery and the trend of inflation. The growth style will still face the downward revision of profit expectation and crowded trading structure in the future. Investment focuses on stocks with low-risk characteristics, layout and stable growth related cycles and consumption.
Investment opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics: undervalued, performance, performance determination. Industry recommendation: 1) the direction of holding physical assets with stable cash flow: coal, chemical resources, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks; 2) Public investment direction dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, wind and solar power; 3) The dilemma reversed, focusing on the in-depth optimization of the supply side: pigs, Baijiu and consumer services. Q2 focused on the emergence of investment opportunities in consumption of building materials and steel.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : continue to track the signal rebounded to reverse
From the perspective of investment clock, stock market valuation and adjustment time and space, the probability of A-Shares has entered the bottom area of a cycle. Learning from history, the signal of rebound to reversal is that about three of the five leading indicators of fundamentals have stabilized. At present, one has appeared and continues to track.
Continue to focus on the main line of steady growth, in which the new infrastructure is more flexible, such as digital economy and low-carbon economy, and gradually pay attention to the consumption related to economic recovery.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : focus on the implementation of policies to stabilize growth and expectations
During the May Day holiday, the marginal impact of internal and external factors on the current market may be limited, and the future trend still needs to pay attention to the marginal changes of the main contradictions.
Looking ahead, we believe that although there are still many uncertainties inside and outside, the market already has the value of the middle line, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market. Structurally, we believe that the undervalued “steady growth” field still has a certain allocation value. We should pay comprehensive attention to the trend of overseas inflation, China’s “steady expectation” measures and the progress of epidemic prevention and control to judge whether the relevant growth sectors have entered the inflection point of repair.
Suggestions on industry allocation: 1) in the “bottom grinding” stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as the industrial chain related to the stable demand of traditional infrastructure and real estate (real estate, building materials, construction, home appliances, household appliances, etc.);
2) for the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
Minsheng Securities: the final layout window period to meet the tide of inflation
Whether in China or overseas, inflation is becoming inevitable under the influence of multiple factors such as limited supply, government expenditure and inventory structure. At present, emerging industries are facing the risk of stagflation turning into recession, while traditional industries are more likely to enter recovery from recession. At present, it is the final layout window period to meet the tide of inflation.
The significance of May is to provide investors with a window for final switching, adjust the layout and meet the tide of inflation. Energy has certainty, metal has demand elasticity, and real estate and banks also have obvious opportunities for industry improvement. The recommended sequence for the next stage is: oil and gas, copper and aluminum, coal, gold, real estate, oil transportation, zinc, banking and chemical fertilizer.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the market is in the bottom area, focusing on three directions
The current market is already at the bottom. Pessimistic expectations have been largely reflected and released. The decision-making level has continuously increased the “steady growth” on many important occasions, stabilized market expectations, and continuously consolidated the “policy bottom”. Combined with the 11 bottom characteristic indicators we built exclusively, most indicators have reached or close to the bottom level of the historical market.
In combination with the first quarter report and the prospect of future prosperity, focus on the following three directions: 1) consumption of core assets (alcohol, duty-free, aviation, scenic spots and hotels) 2) “steady growth” sector (infrastructure, real estate, banking, etc.) 3) “new semi army”, which has strong immunity and maintains high prosperity (new military materials, photovoltaic modules, wind power machines, semiconductor materials, 5g optical fiber and cable, UHV)
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : market sentiment is expected to usher in repair and actively lay out the rebound window
For the market, with the gradual convergence of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and the gradual implementation of the policy of easing the epidemic and stabilizing growth to promote consumption, the rebound window of the A-share market has been opened. In the medium term, with the formation of the valuation bottom, the future market structure performance will be determined by the profit expectation. Investors need to pay attention to the change of market investment style from peg based industry rotation to pb-roe based value investment style under the revision cycle of profit expectation.
From the perspective of structure, focus on three main lines: ① with the gradual rise of inflation expectations, CPI related agriculture and mandatory consumption sectors are still the main line of the year; ② Industries with strong performance recovery expectations after the epidemic, such as express logistics, catering, tourism, airport aviation, media and other offline economy related industries; ③ Traditional consumption sectors such as food and beverage, household appliances and medicine, which are less disturbed by the epidemic, are also expected to usher in a turnaround.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : rebound, adjust structure and grasp certainty
The inflection point of the epidemic drives the short-term rebound. At the same time, pay attention to the potential disturbance of US stocks. Specifically, on the basis of continuous adjustment in the early stage, the inflection point of the short-term epidemic in Shanghai is gradually clarified, and the orderly promotion of resumption of production and work helps to boost short-term risk appetite. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the potential disturbance of US stocks. From May 3 to 4, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is about to be held. Under the background of upside down interest rate spread between 10-year and 2-year maturities of US bonds since the end of March, pay attention to the potential fluctuations of US stocks.
Looking ahead to q2-q3, some investors expect the “three high” track stocks to fight back, but we believe that the “three low” comparative advantage will continue. It is suggested to optimize the structure with the help of rebound and grasp the certainty.
First, the reason why the “Q1” and “Q1” asset valuations are still significantly low; Second, taking history as a mirror, profit fluctuation is the key variable affecting fund position adjustment. The profit pressure of the four track industries (especially electronic and electrical equipment) began to appear in Q1 of 22 years. Under the repeated disturbance of cost side and epidemic situation, it is expected that there will still be pressure in the second quarter. At the same time, the profit of “three low” assets represented by banks and social services will be revised up; Third, the dominant growth needs to wait for the inflection point of economic stabilization to appear, which needs to be gradually clarified in the second half of the year; Fourth, U.S. debt is at a high level to suppress growth style, while the peak of U.S. debt still needs to wait.
