Brokerage institutions said that the impact of external factors on the A-share market may be limited during the "May Day" period, and the A-share market as a whole is still at the bottom stage. It is expected that there will be a rebound in mid to early May, and the investment opportunities in steady growth, consumption and growth fields (new energy, semiconductor and military industry) are worth actively grasping.
external factors have limited influence
From the performance of overseas markets during the May Day holiday, the European stock market as a whole was weak and volatile, while the US stock market rebounded slightly after a continuous correction; The Hong Kong stock market, which preceded the opening of a shares, fell slightly, led by technology stocks.
How will overseas market performance and disturbance factors affect the post holiday trend of a shares? At present, investors are most concerned about the progress of the Fed's interest rate hike. It has become the consensus of all parties in the market to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department's overseas macro group believes that if the Fed shrinks the table and raises interest rates as expected, the risk of external monetary tightening will be released to a certain extent, and the external adverse factors affecting the A-share market have taken a turn.
According to Yi Yi, the Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) chief macroeconomic economist, although the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 50 basis points twice in May and June, there is little room for further increase in market interest rate expectations. Although the Fed's monetary policy will still accelerate tightening in the short term, there may be a turnaround in the second half of the year.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist Wang Hanfeng believes that the marginal impact of external factors on the A-share market may be limited during the "May Day" period, and the future trend still needs to pay attention to the marginal changes of the main contradictions. Whether China's foreign economic growth will gradually converge and simultaneously decline in the future, or whether China's economy will continue to take the lead and take the lead in recovery, is an important macro variable affecting China's asset price performance. At present, the probability of the latter is relatively high.
5 expected to rebound in early may
From the recent performance of the A-share market, the market experienced a shock for more than a month after the sharp decline on March 15. Although it fell sharply before the May Day holiday, it rebounded significantly after the release of positive signals on the policy side, and the Shanghai composite index recovered the 3000 point mark. Compared with the Fed's interest rate hike, the market pays more attention to the relevant contents of the Politburo meeting.
According to Fang Yi, chief strategist of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, the statement of the Politburo meeting and the statement of the central financial and Economic Commission meeting on April 26 focus on clarifying the "bottom line thinking". A positive statement will help alleviate the current tension of investors to a certain extent, but considering the downward pressure on export growth and other factors, investors should not underestimate the complexity of the current macro environment. "In early May, A-Shares are expected to rebound to a certain extent, but the market has not yet had the opportunity to reverse. After the rebound, the index will still be weak, focusing on structural opportunities." Fang Yi said.
By contrast, Qin Peijing, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief strategist, is relatively optimistic about the future market: "The decision-making level has fully responded to market concerns in the dimensions of infrastructure, real estate, relief of market entities and platform economy. After the adjustment in April, extreme pessimism has been fully released, and the market has passed the period of maximum selling pressure. With positive signals from factors affecting the market, it is expected that the market will usher in a trend of resonance repair of value stocks and growth stocks for several months in May."
Since this year, the A-share value sector has performed better, while the growth style has been significantly restrained. For the interpretation of the aftermarket style, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) chief strategist Dai Kang reiterated the judgment that the market value stocks were at the bottom, and believed that the tightening of the Fed's policy would still restrain the stocks with high valuation of a shares.
seize structural opportunities
For the future layout, Wang Hanfeng believes that in the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure and real estate related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, home appliances, home furnishings), etc; In addition, investors can also choose stocks from the middle and lower reaches of consumer industries with more early adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.
Qin Peijing suggested actively laying out the main lines of modern infrastructure, real estate, resumption of work and production and consumption restoration. "From the perspective of the whole year, it is suggested to focus on the layout of modern infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure field focuses on undervalued construction leaders, power grids, data centers and cloud infrastructure, and the real estate field focuses on high-quality developers, property management and building materials. From the perspective of the quarter, it is suggested to actively allocate relevant industries to resume production, focusing on smart cars and parts, semiconductors, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc. from the monthly dimension, it is recommended to Focus on aviation, hotels, duty-free, food and beverage, department store supermarkets related to consumption restoration. " Qin Peijing said.
Will the science and technology growth sector still have layout opportunities in May? Combined with factors such as valuation and performance certainty, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) chief strategic analyst Zhang Qiyao judged that the science and technology growth sector is expected to usher in a wave of repair market in May. It is suggested that investors focus on the direction of strong immunity and maintaining high prosperity in the "new half army" (new energy, semiconductor and military industry), such as new military materials, photovoltaic modules, wind power machines, semiconductor materials, 5g optical fiber and cable, UHV, etc.
