Viewpoint: after four consecutive months of recovery, the leading economic indicators fell below the boom and bust line, confirming the judgment of anti pumping we mentioned earlier. In this case, the pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. Under the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming. In the short term, the bottom of the second policy has been consolidated again, the Fed's interest rate hike "boots landed", the bottom of individual stocks has gradually risen, and the foundation for the overall good of the market is strengthened. In the process of forming the market bottom, there are still repetitions in the short term, but the time for medium-term allocation has come, and bargain hunting can be carried out in batches.
On the first trading day of May, although Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) dragged down the gem, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets still had a "good start". In the morning, the two cities opened slightly lower, then turned red, and then went up all the way. It fell slightly in the late trading, but opened low and went high as a whole, continuing the oversold rebound since the end of April. On the disk, the national defense industry led the rise, with household appliances, basic chemicals, textiles and clothing, automobiles and building materials leading the rise, while beauty care, computers, real estate and coal fell.
Today's market is quite interesting. The first is the "boot landing" of overseas fed interest rate hikes, and US stocks rose sharply overnight. I thought that A-Shares would also open higher, but it was a pity to open lower. However, since then, the performance has slightly exceeded expectations, at least opening low and going high, and the upward movement of most sectors still brings vitality to the market; In addition, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) opened down sharply, dragging down the gem index. As the largest power of the gem, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once fell by more than 10%, which directly inhibited the rise of the gem. Therefore, the three indexes ushered in differentiation, and the market did not show a certain consistency.
However, with the landing of the Fed's interest rate hike and the continuous efforts of recent policies, the end of the second policy has been consolidated. On the basis of the first efforts of heavyweights, track stocks have also performed second since the end of April, the overall sentiment of the market has rebounded, and the most difficult period has passed. On the one hand, although the Fed's interest rate hike is expected by the market, it is still an important force to suppress the market before it is implemented. Now, although the interest rate hike cycle has been started, the impact is also gradually weakening; On the other hand, recently, the central high-level has focused on economic development three times in four days to pulse the capital market, releasing the strongest signal of stability and boosting the overall market. The market is gradually coming out of the most difficult and strong pressure.
Looking forward to may, the overseas geopolitical influence has weakened, and the epidemic is still suppressed. However, the prevention and control is well under way. With the gradual resumption of work and production of enterprises in Shanghai, the market is also gradually recovering, and the confidence of economic boost begins to regain. As we said before, the most important thing in the current market is the lack of confidence, which is gradually improving. Therefore, with the improvement expected by many parties, we say that after the end of the market policy, the market bottom is also in the process of rapid formation. Although there are still repetitions in this process, the trend of improving in the medium term is gradually reaching a consensus.
Therefore, the market in May is worth looking forward to, especially if the epidemic can be effectively controlled, the market may have a greater boost. Before that, the market still had repeated. From the perspective of "falling value", middle line investors can continue to bargain hunting for strategic allocation, while short-term investors can also appropriately play individual stocks. Of course, for prudent investors, it is recommended to wait until the market bottom is established before making a new decision.
