Today (May 5) is the first trading day of A-Shares in May. Although Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) dragged down the gem, the Shanghai and Shenzhen main board index still ushered in a "good start". The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low in the morning, and then the Shanghai and Shenzhen main board index turned red, and then went up all the way; It fell slightly in the late trading, but the overall trend was stronger than the gem index, continuing the oversold rebound since the end of April.
As of the day's closing of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index rose 0.68% to 306776 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.23% to 1104638; The gem index fell 1.33% to 228840.
From the point of view of the stock market, the stock market is light and the stock market is light, while the stock market is light and the index is more prominent. In terms of industries, pharmaceutical commerce, aerospace, pesticides and veterinary drugs, medical devices, decoration building materials, shipbuilding, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, chemical raw materials, textiles and clothing, food and beverage, traditional Chinese medicine, automobile and other industries led the increase; In terms of subject stocks, covid-19 detection, glyphosate, covid-19 drugs, transgenic, building energy conservation and assisted reproduction led the rise.
In terms of capital, the people's Bank of China announced on May 5 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people's Bank of China carried out RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on May 5, 2022, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%. As 50 billion yuan of reverse repo expired, the people's Bank of China realized a net return of 40 billion yuan in the open market today.
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North Fund
southbound funds
message surface
1. According to the interface news report, the State Administration of foreign exchange recently held a party group (expanded) meeting to deeply study and understand the analysis, judgment and major deployment of the Party Central Committee on the economic situation, and study and implement measures. The meeting stressed the need to deepen the reform of cross-border investment and financing facilitation, facilitate more international capital to invest and start business in China, and support and encourage Chinese capital and enterprises to go global. Promote the implementation of normalized financial supervision over the financial activities of platform enterprises, and promote the standardized and healthy development of platform economy.
2. According to the securities times, after 22 years, the Federal Reserve once again raised interest rates by 50 basis points. On May 4 local time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the federal funds rate to 0.75% - 1.00%, the first significant interest rate increase of 50 basis points since 2000; Starting from June 1, the scale was reduced at the pace of US $47.5 billion per month, and the upper limit of scale reduction was gradually increased to US $95 billion per month within three months.
3. According to the news client of China Central Television, recently, the Ministry of Education issued the labor curriculum standard for compulsory education (2022 Edition). Among them, the objectives of "sorting and storage" and "daily life labor such as family cleaning, cooking and home beautification" are formulated according to different stages, which will be implemented in the autumn semester of 2022.
4. According to China Fund News, recently, the CSRC issued the opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of the public fund industry. The opinions clearly stated that "support the expansion and strengthening of mature index products and accelerate the innovation and development of ETF products", which further stimulated the enthusiasm for the development of equity ETF market. Shortly after the publication of the opinions, all parties took positive action. Fund managers actively arranged the equity ETF product line, and investors made a large-scale bottom reading by using ETF. Within three trading days after the publication of the opinions, 25 equity index products were accepted or approved, indicating that the future market is worth looking forward to.
institutional views
For the current market, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that among the factors driving the market in May, fundamentals liquidity tightness external shocks valuation sentiment. It is expected to repair the market in May this year. The driving factors of the market trend in May from 2005 to now can be seen: first, strong fundamentals drive the market stronger, and it is difficult to go down significantly when other factors are negative, such as 2006, 2007, 2009, 2013 and 2021 when the economy and profits go up.
Second, when the policy or liquidity expectation is tightened, the market trend is often suppressed, such as the split share structure reform in 2005, the strict investigation of "outsourcing" in 2017, the "deleveraging" in 2018, the investigation and allocation of capital in 2019, etc.
Third, when the fundamentals are weak, external shocks have a greater negative impact on the market, such as the impact of the European debt crisis in 2010, the impact of the U.S. sovereign debt default risk in 2011, and the impact of trade friction in 2018 and 2019; Fourth, the valuation sentiment has little impact on the short-term market trend.
Guosheng securities mentioned that in front of strategic buying points, space is more important than time, and A-Shares have entered the value range of long-term allocation. The clarity of the economic growth target and the growth direction of steady growth will effectively calm the previously wavering policy expectations. Although the fundamental reversal of macro expectations and the reconstruction of long-term market confidence still need to be confirmed by more right signals, from the perspective of risk return price ratio of long-term allocation, A-Shares have entered the deep value range at present.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that the stage with the greatest impact of the epidemic is gradually passing, and the market sentiment is expected to be repaired. In the market style of May, the blue chip sector with high dividend and value is recommended. Specific to the industry, pay attention to two main investment lines: first, those benefiting from stable growth policies, such as "banking, real estate and building materials"; Second, some consumer goods benefiting from the marginal improvement of China's epidemic situation, such as "food and beverage".
In addition, looking forward to may, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that after the policy bottom appeared, the risk appetite was continuously improving and the market entered a positive and feasible stage. The factors outside China that affect the risk appetite in the early stage, such as the Chinese epidemic, the interest rate hike of the overseas Federal Reserve and the situation in Russia and Ukraine, all show signs of improvement. The subsequent market will usher in an oversold rebound. There are three main catalytic factors. First, with the three rounds of market decline since the beginning of the year, each index has entered the value range step by step, and the valuation quantile of each major index has been in a relatively cheap position. Cheapness is the last word.
Second, the gradual easing of China's point epidemic is the general trend. After effectively controlling the epidemic, we will focus on economic construction, strive to achieve the expected goal of economic and social development throughout the year, and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range. China is still an economy with rapid growth worldwide this year.
Third, with the sound of the heavy meeting in April, the tone is obviously warm, and with the arrival of the performance window period, the negative factors affecting the market risk appetite will be mitigated, and the market will usher in the repair and enter the feasible stage.
The agency further analyzed that structurally, it is optimistic about the oversold rebound of consumption and growth. In the medium term, the consumption in the bottom grinding stage is dominant, focusing on two sub sectors: first, the food and beverage, catering and tourism, hotel, automobile, household appliances and other industries that have been fully adjusted and benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic; Second, medicine and biology with low valuation. On the other hand, the policy tone is relatively warm. After the sharp decline in the early stage, the configuration value of growth style appears. It pays attention to the opportunities of oversold rebound, and focuses on the Internet, new energy, national defense and military industry, TMT, etc. In May, the preferred industries are household appliances, food and beverage, medicine and biology.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that price is more important than time. High quality assets with valuation adjustment in place and profit expectation correction in place will be the first to stand out from the bottom. In combination with the first quarterly report and the prospect of future prosperity, focus on the following three directions: 1) consumption of core assets (alcohol, tax exemption, aviation, scenic spots and hotels): on the one hand, benefit from the gradual improvement of China's epidemic situation. On the other hand, the share price and valuation of the sector have been at a low level, and the internal and external uncertainties can be attacked and retreated.
2) "steady growth" sector (infrastructure, real estate, banking, etc.): policies continue to increase. At the same time, the global market is still in a chaotic situation of high volatility and low risk preference. Infrastructure, real estate, banking and other sectors are both security and policy driven.
3) in the "new half army", the direction of strong immunity and maintaining high prosperity (new military materials, photovoltaic modules, wind power machine, semiconductor materials, 5g optical fiber and cable, UHV): combined with the certainty of valuation and performance and the judgment of the leading indicators of our "new half Army" timing framework, the science and technology growth sector is expected to usher in a wave of repair window in May.
