The situation in Russia and Ukraine has attracted much market attention. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the 3rd to take retaliatory special economic measures against the unfriendly acts of some countries and international organizations. Ukrainian news agency quoted Ukrainian President Zelensky as saying on the 3rd that Ukraine can seek neutral status only if the Ukrainian people pass a referendum on the premise of obtaining international security and Russia’s recognition of security.
EU plans to replace two-thirds of natural gas imported from Russia within this year
On May 3 local time, European Commissioner simsson, who is responsible for energy affairs, said that the European Commission would submit a plan to replace Russian natural gas later this month.
Simsson pointed out at the plenary session of the European Parliament that day that the EU plans to replace two-thirds of the natural gas imported from Russia by the end of this year.
She said that in order to find alternative sources of natural gas, the EU has contacted all major suppliers. The plan also includes the use of more renewable energy to replace natural gas and a series of energy-saving measures.
EU officials say they are formulating the sixth round of sanctions against Russia
On May 3 local time, the EU high representative for foreign and security policy Borrell said that the EU is formulating the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, which will target the banking, media and oil fields.
Borrelli said on social media that day that relevant measures would be submitted to EU Member States for approval.
According to EU rules, any sanctions proposal needs the unanimous consent of 27 member states to take effect. Hungary, Slovakia and other countries have previously made it clear that they are opposed to further sanctions against Russia in the field of energy.
Ukrainian officials: Lvov was attacked by missiles on the evening of the 3rd, and several substations were damaged
In the early morning of May 4 local time, the head of the military and political administration of Lvov Prefecture, Ukraine, announced that six missiles attacked on the evening of the 3rd, two of which were shot down by local air defense forces over Lvov, the other three hit three substations and one hit a substation in outer Carpathian Prefecture. The missiles are believed to have been launched from the Caspian Sea.
Earlier, mayor Lvov said that three local power stations had been seriously damaged and the local power supply had been affected. The attack also injured two people.
affected by the situation, 4.5 million tons of grain have been trapped in Ukrainian ports
On May 3 local time, the Ukrainian Association of industry and entrepreneurs said that Ukraine needs the help of international organizations to establish channels to transport grain trapped in the port.
The news pointed out that due to the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, about 4.5 million tons of grain are trapped in Ukrainian ports. At present, only roads and railways can be used for export transportation to the West. However, the transportation capacity of these modes of transportation is limited. Previously, the grain transfer volume in Ukrainian ports reached 160 million tons per year, while the railway transfer volume was only 12 million tons per year.
traffic accident in Northwest Ukraine, killing at least 17 people
According to Xinhua news agency, a three car collision occurred in Rovno state in Northwest Ukraine on the 3rd, killing at least 17 people.
The Ukrainian national police issued a document on social media on the 3rd, saying that at about 7:20 that night, a fuel transport vehicle collided with two buses on the Kiev chopp highway in Rovno state, and a fire was lit at the scene. At present, the incident section has been closed, and the local police and fire department personnel have gone to the scene for disposal.
Preliminary investigation showed that a bus drove into the reverse lane and collided with a fuel truck, which then collided with another bus. At present, the accident has caused 17 deaths and many injuries, and the number of casualties may increase.
Ukrainian President Zelensky sent a message on social media on the 3rd, expressing condolences to the families of the victims of the accident and instructing relevant departments to provide necessary help to the injured.
Putin signs economic measures to respond to foreign unfriendly acts
On May 3 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree to respond to foreign unfriendly acts with economic measures.
The presidential decree includes: prohibiting the Russian Federation and local authorities and organizations and individuals governed by Russian law from signing any agreements, including foreign trade, with legal persons and individuals of unfriendly countries and organizations subject to sanctions; Prohibit the transportation outside the Russian Federation of products and raw materials originating in Russia that are conducive to sanctioned organizations and individuals; It is prohibited to perform transaction obligations and financial transactions against organizations and individuals sanctioned by the Russian Federation. In addition, the presidential decree also requires the federal government to determine the list of sanctioned organizations and individuals within 10 days.
Putin and macron exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine
On May 3 local time, the Kremlin website announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President macron had a telephone conversation on the same day.
Putin congratulated macron on his victory in the recent presidential election and his re-election as head of state.
The two sides continued to exchange views on the situation in Ukraine. Putin briefed on the progress of the special military operation, including the situation in Mariupol and the implementation of the agreement on evacuating civilians in the Asian speed steel plant reached during Putin’s meeting with UN Secretary General Guterres on April 26.
Putin also introduced the principled position of the Russian side in conducting negotiations with Ukrainian representatives, stressing that although Kiev was inconsistent and was not ready for serious work, Russia was still willing to hold dialogue.
The French side is concerned about emerging global food security issues. In this regard, Putin stressed that the situation was first complicated by the sanctions measures of western countries, and pointed out the importance of the smooth operation of global logistics and transportation infrastructure.
The two sides agreed to continue contacts at all levels.
due to its withdrawal from business in Russia, BP lost nearly US $20.4 billion in the first quarter
On May 3 local time, BP reported a loss of nearly US $20.4 billion in the first quarter of this year due to its decision to withdraw from its Russian business during the Russian Ukrainian conflict.
The company reported a loss of $24.4 billion due to its decision to withdraw its 19.75% stake in Rosneft. Affected by this, the British energy giant lost $20.38 billion in the first quarter of this year, while its profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 was $2.33 billion.
macro environment superimposed the impact of weak demand, and LME nonferrous metals fell under pressure
Yesterday, LME copper and LME aluminum both fell to three-month lows, of which LME three-month copper fell 2.50% to US $952550/ton, hitting the lowest level of US $9505 / ton since January 31; LME three-month aluminum fell 2.74% to US $2969 / ton, hitting its lowest point of US $2967 / ton since February 2.
Market participants said that the overall weakness of the non-ferrous metal sector was due to the expected response of the market to the Fed’s upcoming tightening policy and the impact of weak global demand.
\u3000\u3000 “The annual rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter and March of the United States released on the last day before the holiday still maintained a strong growth rate, which consolidated the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table in order to resist inflation. According to CME’s’ fed observation ‘tool, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May is 97.1%. In order to deal with high inflation, the Fed may adopt stronger tightening policies. The market responded to expectations in advance, and the macro repression continued to strengthen, which contained some risks The trend of non-ferrous metals, copper price pressure is particularly obvious. ” Chen Xiaobo, industrial products analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute, said.
Liu Peiyang, a non-ferrous metals researcher at Zhongyuan futures, said that the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate resolution in May this week. The market is expected to announce a 50 basis point interest rate increase, but the market is very concerned about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming table reduction plan. The tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has pushed up the dollar sharply in the short term, thus suppressing the price of non-ferrous metals.
In addition to the impact of the macro environment, Chen Xiaobo believes that the continued weakness of non-ferrous metals is also affected by the weakening global demand. He said that affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, covid-19 epidemic and other factors, the demand growth of major economies in the world slowed down month on month. The PMI of manufacturing industry in China, the United States and the euro zone fell to varying degrees in April, and the prosperity level of manufacturing industry decreased. The latest data show that China’s official manufacturing PMI index in April was 47.4%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest level since March 2020.
“From the sub index and the change of industry PMI, the impact of short-term factors such as the multi-point spread of China’s epidemic and international geopolitical conflict is still continuing, which has a great impact on logistics and employment, the price of raw materials continues to rise, the triple pressure of manufacturing industry increases, and the growth rate of middle and upper reaches industries drops significantly.” Liu Peiyang said.
At present, the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than two months, and the disturbing factors for the non-ferrous metal market are still. In Liu Peiyang’s view, the expectation of supply side tension has been basically digested by the market, and the tension of LME metal inventory has not further deteriorated as a whole. Relatively speaking, the demand side has a greater impact on the price of non-ferrous metals, especially the market’s concern about economic weakness is mainly reflected from the demand side. In the current context of high global inflation, economic growth is facing great downward pressure. From the perspective of economic cycle rotation, the global economy is expected to gradually enter the stagflation cycle from the overheating cycle. Many people even expect that the U.S. economy may enter recession in advance. Therefore, the overheating sentiment of the whole market is in a process of gradually cooling down.
“The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and covid-19 epidemic still affect the supply and demand of non-ferrous metals. The supply side is mainly worried about the reduction of supply caused by overseas energy problems, and the demand side is mainly due to logistics and transportation interference and shutdown. On the whole, it is difficult to say which side has a greater impact, which should be treated in detail: overseas, the current supply problem is more urgent (especially zinc) , although the demand has dropped, the performance is still strong, and low inventory still supports the price. As far as China is concerned, the demand side problem may be more prominent due to the unexpected development of the epidemic and the impact of the dynamic clearing and epidemic prevention policy, plus the recent depreciation of the RMB. However, in the context of the steady growth of the government, the expectation of demand recovery is still strong. The current uncertainty mainly comes from the epidemic situation and the duration of prevention and control policies. ” Chen Xiaobo said.
For the future, Liu Peiyang believes that a core concern of the market is whether the current round of rising peak of non-ferrous metals has been determined since the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic in 2020. “From the macro market point of view, the Fed’s announcement of raising interest rates officially marks a major change in its monetary policy. Under this background, global economic growth will face certain difficulties, and the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will increase the degree of difficulties. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of the non-ferrous metal market will also change due to the influence of the macro market, and the focus of the future market will gradually shift from the supply side to the demand side. If the global economy Can maintain a certain toughness, non-ferrous metal prices may run at a high level for a long time. ” He said.
Chen Xiaobo believes that the current market focuses on the guidance of the Fed’s interest rate resolution in May and the monetary policy press conference on the follow-up ways of raising interest rates and shrinking the table. The market has traded most of the expectations. When there is little difference from the expectations, the macro pressure may slow down. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not been alleviated for a short time. Under the pattern that overseas energy prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, the situation of tight supply and low inventory is difficult to improve in a short time.
\u3000\u3000 “In the short term, the macro pressure is still strong, and the non-ferrous metals may fall first and then rise after the festival. The financial attribute of copper is obvious, or there may be large fluctuations; the overseas supply worries and demand recovery expectations supported by the low inventory of the main zinc transaction, if the epidemic situation improves, the upper space still exists; the demand recovery expectations of China’s main aluminum transaction, due to the acceleration of China’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the supply pressure is small, and the upper elasticity may be weaker than that of copper and zinc; the current logic of nickel It is due to tight supply and low inventory support, which is stronger in the short term, but in the medium and long term, under the expectation of loose supply, it may face a greater risk of decline. ” Chen Xiaobo said.
meidou follows the high level of meidou oil
During China’s May Day holiday, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) sector of the outer market continued to weaken. Among them, CBOT soybean closed down 2.27% on Monday, and CBOT soybean oil fell sharply from the previous high of 87.650 cents / pound for two consecutive days, falling 4% on Monday. CBOT soybeans and soybean oil continued to fall on Tuesday.
“The decline of meidou in recent trading days is mainly affected by the decline of meidou oil, but on the whole, it is a normal adjustment.” Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) futures Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) researcher Fu Bo said that there was news that Germany would reduce its biodiesel production to meet the demand for edible oil, which made the market worried that other countries such as Europe would have a similar situation, resulting in an increase in the global supply of edible vegetable oil. In addition, the planting area of American beans may further increase, which also poses a certain pressure on CBOT soybeans. USDA crop growth report shows that as of the week of April 29, the sowing progress of corn in the United States was only 14%, far lower than 33% of the five-year average. If the planting progress of corn in the United States can not catch up significantly in the next two weeks, some farmers will have to switch to soybeans.
In fact, CBOT soybean oil fell sharply after rising. According to Chen Yanjie, oil analyst of Xinhu futures, the main reason for the previous strong rise was that the profits of biodiesel in the United States were good, the output was high, and the demand for soybean oil in the United States was strong.
“Last Thursday, Indonesia officially implemented the ban on palm oil export. The expected expansion of the short-term supply and demand gap of international vegetable oil has increased the attention and discussion in Europe and Malaysia on the use of rapeseed oil and palm oil as food or fuel. Therefore, on Monday, not only CBOT soybean oil, but also Canada Winnipeg rapeseed futures under the Intercontinental Exchange (ice), also fell sharply, and the contract closed down nearly 4% in July.” Chen Yanjie said.
According to USDA’s crop growth report, as of the week of April 29, the sowing progress of American beans was 8%, in line with market expectations, 3% last week, 22% in the same period last year and an average of 13% in five years. At present, the sowing progress is slow compared with the average level of the same period last year and previous years. Among them, the sowing progress of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and other states is obviously slow. Due to the excessive rainfall in the above areas, the soil is wet.
Fu Bo said that the sowing progress of meidou and meicorn is slow, mainly because the accumulated temperature in the main producing areas is low and farmers are waiting for better sowing conditions. The weather forecast shows that the temperature in the central and western regions will rise this week, which is expected to be conducive to the spread of sowing. Meidou still has sufficient sowing time.
“In addition, from the perspective of the current weather outlook, the future rainfall belt may move to the west of the central and western regions, which may also slow the soybean planting progress in North and South Dakota. At present, the soybean planting in these regions has just begun.” Chen Yanjie said.
In fact, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, the return of funds from Europe and other places, and the strength of the US dollar index will put pressure on commodities to varying degrees. In this regard, Chen Yanjie said that although the US dollar continued to strengthen, geographical conflicts also affected the supply of international crude oil, oil, grain and other commodities. With the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, its impact on the global supply of grain, grain, oil and oil will offset the impact of the strengthening of the US dollar to a certain extent.
\u3000\u3000 “Under the background of international sunflower oil trade obstruction, low palm oil production, Indonesian palm oil export ban and uncertain global rapeseed production, the sowing area and weather of meidou new crop are very important. Due to the sharp rise in international fertilizer prices and poor supply, the market generally estimates that the new crop area of meidou will increase by more than 4% year-on-year. Once the final area is less than expected or the weather is poor in the critical growth period, meidou will continue to operate at a high level. Meidou new crop Area and later weather are the key factors affecting the trend of CBOT soybean. ” Chen Yanjie said.
In Fu Bo’s view, inflation and geopolitical concerns have been injected into the price of CBOT soybeans through risk premium in the past six months or so. Therefore, the risk premium in CBOT soybeans will decrease only when inflation concerns and geopolitical concerns really subside. At present, the risk premium of macro factors has been fully priced. If the situation improves, CBOT soybeans may be adjusted to a certain extent.
