March and April is the time for the launch of the first round of centralized land supply in various cities. In contrast, due to the comprehensive factors such as market financing environment and land supply, the investment pressure of the top 100 real estate enterprises has not decreased since this year, and the scale of land acquisition has shrunk significantly. According to institutional data, from January to April, the total land acquisition of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 362.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 55.9%, and more than 30% of the top 50 real estate enterprises did not acquire land.
However, for some real estate enterprises, under the background of market downturn, high-quality plots in many cities appear frequently, which has become a window period for land acquisition. At present, central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies are still the main forces of transactions, such as CNOOC real estate, China Resources Land, green city China, etc., while private enterprises, including Binjiang and Longhu, also perform well.
Industry insiders believe that in April, affected by the first batch of centralized land supply, the land market in some cities recovered, but it is still limited to high-quality plots and core cities. It still takes time for the overall recovery. Based on the change of policy direction, the recovery trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
the total amount of land acquired by top 100 real estate enterprises in the first four months was 362.6 billion yuan
In the first four months of this year, the investment pressure brought by the downward market and tight funds to real estate enterprises did not improve significantly. In this regard, Kerui said that more than 30% of the top 50 real estate enterprises did not take land.
In addition, according to the data of China Index Research Institute, from January to April, the total land acquisition of the top 100 real estate enterprises was 362.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 55.9%; The total amount of land acquired by the top 100 real estate enterprises through bidding, auction and listing rights and interests accounts for 51.5% of the land transfer fees of 300 cities in China.
From the perspective of single month in April, Kerui data showed that as of April 27, the total transaction construction area of operating land in 300 cities across the country in April was only 65.37 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 60%, and the transaction scale was at a historically low level. It is worth noting that most of the main cities that traded in April were key cities with concentrated local auction, including Hangzhou, Ningbo, Nanjing, Chengdu and Changsha. High premium land transactions occurred in many cities, which led to a slight increase in the transaction premium rate month on month. Due to the increase in the proportion of high-quality land entering the market, the streaming photography rate of key monitoring cities decreased slightly compared with last month.
However, according to Kerui data statistics, under the opening of the first round of centralized land supply in many hot cities, the land acquisition amount of Top50 real estate enterprises in a single month is close to 100 billion yuan. Although it has rebounded month on month, it is still down 69% year-on-year.
Therefore, the investment pressure of real estate enterprises has not improved significantly due to the warming of the land market in some hot cities. According to Kerui data, in the first four months of this year, among the top 10 real estate enterprises with land acquisition amount, only three enterprises increased their land acquisition amount year-on-year, reflecting the current overall downturn of the land market and the cautious land acquisition of enterprises to a certain extent.
At present, the differentiation of real estate enterprises in land acquisition is significant, and central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies are still the main forces of transaction, such as CNOOC real estate and China Resources Land in the first camp, green city China in the second camp, etc. According to Zhang Kai, head of the land business department of the China Index Research Institute, since this year, the willingness of some private enterprises to take land has increased, including private enterprises such as Binjiang and Longhu. For example, in the first round of centralized land supply in Hangzhou, 59 plots were sold, of which Binjiang alone took over 11 plots, accounting for 18%.
the differentiation between cold and warm is obvious, and the soil auction in Shenzhen and Hangzhou is heating up
At present, the layout of real estate enterprises is still "doing something and not doing something". Among them, land acquisition by real estate enterprises in second tier cities is more prominent, especially in the Yangtze River Delta.
According to the data of China Index Research Institute, 50 representative real estate enterprises accounted for the highest proportion of investment area in second tier cities from January to April, reaching 68.4%. From the perspective of layout area, enterprises are keen to get land in the Yangtze River Delta. Only from the top 10 of the total transaction price of residential land in China in April, seven of the listed plots are located in the Yangtze River Delta.
Due to the choice of real estate enterprises, the cold and warm differentiation of urban land auction has always existed. According to Kerui's analysis, from the seven cities that completed the first round of centralized land supply in April, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Ningbo are significantly more popular, and the average premium rate of the first round of transactions is more than 5%. In Shenzhen, in particular, the first batch of eight parcels of land centrally supplied all hit the price ceiling, with an average transaction premium rate of 15%; The popularity of local auction in Hangzhou is also not low. Among the 59 parcels of land traded, 23 parcels hit the top, and only 1 parcel was sold out, with an average premium rate of 6.4%.
The heat of land auction in Nanjing, Tianjin and other cities is significantly lower than that in the third batch of centralized land supply last year, especially in Tianjin. It is reported that only 5 of the 29 residential plots listed in the centralized land auction in Tianjin were successfully sold, of which 1 was sealed and signed, with an overall premium rate of only 0.6% and a flow auction rate of 83%.
property market recovery expectation or increase real estate enterprises' willingness to acquire land
In fact, the recovery of some local auction markets is mainly the result of the "profit transfer" of the centralized land supply cities. For example, compared with last year, the limited selling prices of the first batch of commercial houses with centralized land supply in Shenzhen have increased this year, ranging from 5% to 10%. This is undoubtedly to benefit developers, which will help to improve developers' enthusiasm for land acquisition. For real estate enterprises, the supplement of high-quality and cost-effective plots also optimizes the soil storage structure of enterprises.
Kerui analysts suggest that for enterprises with financial strength, the current is the window period for land acquisition. Choosing appropriate cities and projects and increasing high-quality soil storage against the market will be of great help to the future development of enterprises. For most private enterprises whose funds are still tight, they should continue to seek appropriate cooperation opportunities.
It can be seen that many places have recently introduced a new loose real estate policy, and the warm wind at the policy level will also blow into the land market. According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, "it is expected that the local auction market in some cities will have a positive recovery in May."
In the expectation of the recovery of the property market, Kerui analysts expect that the land market will also recover to a certain extent, but the recovery speed of different cities will be very different. It can be seen that even in the core cities with centralized land supply, there are more serious cases of cold in soil photography.
Analysts of Yihan think tank believe that as of the end of April, the recovery of the land market is still limited to high-quality plots and core cities, and it will take time for the overall recovery. Based on the change of policy direction, with the financing channels of real estate enterprises and the degree of supervision entering the correction process, as well as the effective control of the epidemic, and the loosening of local regulatory policies, the residential transaction market is expected to rebound, The land market is expected to recover gradually in the second half of the year.
