China News Agency, Beijing, May 4 (reporter Chen Kangliang) – following the good performance last year, the performance of China’s A-share coal listed companies in the first quarter continued to boom and achieved a “good start”.
According to the statistics of Huajin securities, in the first quarter of 2022, 29 A-share listed coal companies achieved a total revenue of about 385.6 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 30% year-on-year; The net profit was about 60.9 billion yuan, an increase of 87% year-on-year.
Among them, the industry leader China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (hereinafter referred to as China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ) has realized a net profit of nearly 19 billion yuan China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) the first quarterly report showed that the company achieved an operating revenue of 83.902 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%; The net profit was 18.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.3%.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) analyst Zhang Xixi said that the sharp rise in profits of listed coal enterprises including China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) in the first quarter was mainly due to the strong market demand and the rise in the average sales price of coal.
In this regard, Yang Jie, a researcher of Yimei Research Institute, also holds similar opinions. According to Yang Jie’s analysis, the overall high coal price since this year is due to the surge in coal demand due to the increase in the number of days available for inventory of inland power plants under the policy requirements. Since February, the cold wave has driven the daily consumption to a new high in the same period in recent years. In addition, international geopolitical conflicts and other factors have also led to the rise of energy prices. The rise of overseas coal prices is higher than that of China’s coal prices, and imports are limited.
According to the official data released by China, China imported 16.42 million tons of coal in March 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9%; 51.81 million tons of coal were imported in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) analyst Zu guopeng pointed out that import reduction and supply constraints are the main logic for the good performance of listed coal enterprises. Since this year, although the overall performance of coal demand has been flat, the performance of coal prices has continuously exceeded expectations, indicating that the supply is tight, and the bottleneck on the supply side mainly comes from the reduction of imports. The main factor of import reduction is that the overseas energy price remains high and the advantage of imported coal price disappears under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Zu guopeng further pointed out that according to the year-on-year decline in the first quarter, China’s annual coal import reduction may be about 78 million tons, accounting for 1.7% of the national coal consumption, which will have an obvious marginal pushing effect on prices. At present, although the overseas coal price has a significant correction from the high in March, there is still a large premium compared with China’s coal price, and the import price is still unattractive.
For the performance outlook of listed coal enterprises this year, Hu Bo, an analyst at Huajin securities, said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reshaped the global coal trade pattern, and the increase of overseas coal prices is higher than that of China, resulting in import restrictions. It is worth noting that the uncertain factors in the second half of the year mainly come from the demand side. The impact of covid-19 pneumonia on the economy exceeds market expectations, and the measures and effects of steady growth will affect the high boom period of the industry. Considering that the average price of coal has increased since the beginning of the year compared with last year, combined with the current supply and import situation, the industry profit in 2022 is expected to be better than that in 2021.
Zu guopeng also held a similar view. He believed that the coal price is expected to move up as a whole in 2022, and the certainty of performance growth of listed coal enterprises is enhanced. According to the average price of each coal type in the first quarter and the seasonal characteristics of coal price, the price of thermal coal is expected to weaken slightly due to the off-season in April and may, but the average price in the second quarter is expected to remain higher than the average level of last year. The average price in subsequent quarters may rise quarter by quarter, and the average price of the whole year is expected to rise by 10% to 12% year-on-year. In addition, with the easing of the epidemic situation and the force of the steady growth policy, the demand for coking coal is expected to usher in a new round of expansion. The annual increase of coking coal price is expected to be 20% ~ 25%. Under this coal price assumption, the performance of mainstream listed coal enterprises is expected to have clear room for improvement in 2022. (end)
