Brothers, the holiday is over, and the tense and exciting A-Shares will finally open tomorrow. Let’s take a look at the summary of important news of the holiday and the latest views of securities analysts.
holiday affects the opening of A-Shares
3 top-level meetings in 4 days! The latest tone set by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee! The platform economy ushered in a new statement, and the capital market was also highlighted
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work and review the national talent development plan during the 14th Five Year Plan period. General secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping presided over the meeting. The meeting made clear the areas concerned by the market, such as real estate, monetary policy, capital market, infrastructure construction, stabilizing foreign trade, platform economy and so on. Affected by this news, on April 29, the RMB of A-share and Hong Kong stock soared across the board. The gem index once rose by more than 3%, the Shanghai index rose by more than 2%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by about 3%. Internet services, education, games, media and other sectors led the gains, with more than 4300 stocks rising in the two cities.
Meanwhile, according to Xinhua news agency, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the 38th collective study on standardizing and guiding the healthy development of Chinese capital according to law on the afternoon of April 29. When presiding over the study, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping stressed the need to deepen the understanding of China’s various types of capital and their roles under the conditions of the new era, standardize and guide the healthy development of capital and give full play to its positive role as an important factor of production. In these four days, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the 38th collective study, which not only summarized the current economic situation and arranged the next step of economic development, but also conducted research and development on the development of capital market.
the people’s Bank of China increased the special refinancing line of 100 billion yuan to support the development and use of coal and enhance the capacity of coal reserves
The people’s Bank of China increased the amount of special refinancing of 100 billion yuan to support the development and use of coal and enhance the capacity of coal reserves. The additional 100 billion yuan of special refinancing line is specially used in fields related to coal development and use and enhancing coal reserve capacity. The specific support fields include: first, coal safety production and reserve. Including modern coal mine construction, green and efficient technology application, intelligent mine construction, coal mine safety transformation, coal washing, coal reserve capacity construction and other projects. The second is the field of coal power supply guarantee for coal power enterprises. Financial institutions should give priority to supporting project loans for coal safety production and reserves. In the field of ensuring the supply of electricity and coal for coal power enterprises, working capital loans issued by financial institutions for coal power enterprises to purchase coal can apply for special refinancing support as required.
Tesla will set up a second plant in Shanghai, and the annual output is expected to exceed 1 million
According to China Securities News reported today, multiple sources cross verified that Tesla has made it clear that it plans to build another new factory near the current port super factory of the Shanghai factory to expand production capacity. The new plant is expected to produce model 3 and model y models with an annual capacity of 450000 vehicles. After the expansion of the new plant is completed, it will help Tesla to increase the total capacity of the Shanghai plant to 1 million vehicles per year.
Byd Company Limited(002594) sales soared by more than 300%, but weixiaoli fell sharply month on month
Byd Company Limited(002594) continued to top the sales list. In April, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 106000, up 313% year-on-year. It is reported that the monthly sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) has exceeded 100000 for two consecutive months since March.
In sharp contrast to the surge in sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) is the new car building force. In April, the delivery volume of most new car manufacturing enterprises was affected by the supply chain, showing a downward trend month on month, and collectively fell below 10000 “clubs”.
Liu qiangdong and Shen NANPENG reduced their holdings, and the two giants fell by more than 80 billion
Recently, Liu qiangdong and Shen NANPENG successively reduced their holdings of JD health and meituan. Their share prices fell sharply today, falling by more than 14% and 6% respectively, and the total market value evaporated by more than HK $80 billion. As of the closing, the decline of both narrowed. The total market value of JD health with a market value of 100 billion yuan evaporated about HK $16.2 billion compared with the previous day, and the total market value of meituan with a market value of trillion yuan evaporated nearly HK $50 billion compared with the previous day.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : net profit in the first quarter decreased by 23.62% year-on-year
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) last Friday, the first quarter report was disclosed. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 48.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.62%; The basic earnings per share is 0.6439 yuan. Xiaocai note: the net profit of Q4 in 2021 was 8.18 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 decreased by 81.75% month on month.
the United States starts the review procedure of tariff increase on China
The office of the US trade representative announced on the 3rd that the two actions of imposing tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States four years ago based on the results of the so-called “301 survey” will end on July 6 and August 23, respectively. From now on, the office will start the legal review procedure for relevant actions.
Xinhua review: strive to achieve the expected goal of economic and social development throughout the year
In the face of many risks and challenges, China’s economy made a smooth start in the first quarter of this year. However, the “triple pressure” superimposes some “unexpected” factors, and the downward pressure on the economy can not be ignored. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 29 set the tone for the current economic work and stressed the need to “strive to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range”. We will fully implement the major policies of the CPC Central Committee, make good use of strategic advantages, pool the joint forces of steady growth, and promote steady and healthy economic development in tackling difficulties.
Vice Minister of Finance Xu Hongcai explained in detail the active fiscal policy: strengthening the rescue and solving difficulties and making efforts to stabilize the economy
Since this year, the Ministry of finance has issued more than 20 tax support policies. It mainly includes: the implementation of large-scale retention, credit and tax rebate policy, and the full refund of the stock retention and tax credit of relevant industries. We will continue to implement the policy of reducing taxes and fees to support manufacturing, small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, increase the scope of reduction and exemption and expand the scope of application. Introduce tax policies to support the relief and development of industries with special difficulties.
The central bank’s credit policy is stable and the real estate market is supported in a timely manner
On April 29, the people’s Bank of China held a special meeting. The meeting held that in the face of the complex situation of the superposition of Centennial changes and century epidemics, the Party Central Committee clearly required that “the epidemic should be prevented, the economy should be stable and development should be safe”. The people’s Bank of China should firmly study and implement it in close combination with the actual work to ensure that the major policies of the Party Central Committee are implemented in place.
We should accelerate the precise implementation of various policies and measures that have been determined, make good use of various monetary policy tools, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and guide financial institutions to better meet the financing needs of the real economy. Optimize financial services, support the release of consumption potential and promote the sustained recovery of consumption. We will promote the increase of financing volume, expansion of areas and price reduction of small and micro enterprises, support the rescue of difficult industries such as foreign trade, service industry and civil aviation, and increase financial support for scientific and technological innovation, specialized and new enterprises. Strive to improve the level of financial development of the supply chain, support the production and supply of grain and energy, ensure smooth logistics and promote the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain. We should step up the planning of incremental policy tools, support stable growth, employment and prices, and create a good monetary and financial environment for coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.
The meeting stressed that under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the battle to prevent and resolve major financial risks has achieved important phased results, and financial risks tend to converge and be controlled as a whole. We should scientifically study and judge the international and China situation, accurately grasp the key areas and key objects that may bring systemic financial risks, further effectively control financial risks, and resolutely hold the bottom line of no systemic financial risks. Support the smooth operation of the capital market. Implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, timely optimize the real estate credit policy, maintain the stability and order of real estate financing, and support the rigid and improved housing demand.
The meeting proposed that we should deeply understand and resolutely implement the spirit of the important speech of Xi Jinping general secretary, summarize experience, grasp laws, explore and innovate, comprehensively improve the efficiency of capital governance, and promote the completion of special rectification of financial business of platform enterprises. We should implement normalized financial supervision over the financial activities of platform enterprises and promote the standardized and healthy development of platform economy.
China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: do not blindly withdraw, cut off and suppress loans, and keep real estate financing stable and orderly
Recently, the CBRC held a special meeting to deeply convey and study the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the spirit of the important speech of Xi Jinping general secretary at the 38th collective study of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, and study and deploy specific implementation measures.
The meeting pointed out that banks and insurance institutions should be urged to adhere to the positioning of “houses are for living, not for speculation”, implement differentiated housing credit policies according to urban policies, support the demand for first and improved housing, and flexibly adjust the repayment plan of individual housing loans for people affected by the epidemic. We should distinguish between project risks and enterprise group risks, do not blindly withdraw loans, cut off loans and suppress loans, and maintain the stability and order of real estate financing. In accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law, we should do a good job in the financial services of mergers and acquisitions of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises. We should give full play to the advantages of long-term investment of insurance funds, solve the problem of “long money and short allocation”, and further reduce the proportion of non-standard assets. Establish and improve the long-term assessment mechanism of insurance funds, enrich the channels for insurance funds to participate in capital market investment, encourage insurance asset management companies to increase the issuance of portfolio insurance asset management products, and guide insurance institutions to allocate more funds to equity assets. To complete the special rectification work of large platform enterprises, the red light and green light should be set well, the normalized supervision should be implemented, and the standardized and healthy development of platform economy should be supported. We should pay close attention to studying and improving relevant laws and regulations and institutional arrangements, further enrich the financial stability guarantee fund, give full play to the positive role of insurance guarantee fund and trust guarantee fund in risk disposal, and build a strong financial safety net.
Russia announces permanent ban on 63 people including Japanese Prime Minister entering Russia
The website of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 4th, announcing that 63 Japanese citizens, including Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Chief Cabinet Secretary Boyi Matsuno, foreign minister Lin Fangzheng and other government officials, will be permanently banned from entering Russia.
The statement said that the Japanese government launched an anti Russian campaign to allow unacceptable remarks against Russia, slander and direct threats against Russia, which was endorsed by Japanese public figures, experts and the media. This line of the Japanese government aims to undermine the good neighborly relations between Russia and Japan and damage Russia’s economy and international reputation. Considering the above situation and the personal sanctions imposed by the Japanese government on Russian citizens, Russia decided to permanently prohibit some Japanese citizens from entering Russia.
The list published in the statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry also includes officials such as Japanese finance minister Junichi Suzuki and defense minister Nobuo Kishi, as well as personnel, experts and scholars from many Japanese media institutions such as Sankei Shimbun and Yomiuri Shimbun.
top ten securities companies latest research and judgment
1, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : it is expected that the medium-term repair market will start for several months from May, and it is suggested to lay out four main investment lines
The four major factors affecting the market in the early stage have taken a turn one after another. The pressure of forced selling in the market has been fully released, and the extreme pessimism has been gradually repaired. It is expected that the medium-term repair market lasting for several months will start from May. It is suggested to actively lay out the four main investment lines.
First of all, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has improved significantly. The Politburo meeting once again stressed the coordination of economic development and epidemic prevention.
Secondly, the decision-making level once again comprehensively set the tone and responded to market concerns in the dimensions of infrastructure development, real estate support, relief of market players and healthy development of platform economy.
Thirdly, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reduced its table in May, and the trade friction environment or phased improvement under the heavy pressure of overseas inflation.
Finally, the first quarterly report of listed companies landed, and the market entered the performance vacuum period and confidence recovery period.
After the adjustment in April, extreme pessimism has been fully released, and the market has passed the period with the greatest pressure of forced selling. Recently, some funds have begun to be actively distributed, and investors are also extremely sensitive to positive signals on the margin. Therefore, with the positive signals of the four major factors affecting the market, the medium-term repair market lasting for several months is expected to start in May. It is suggested that investors should actively layout the four main lines of modern infrastructure, real estate, resumption of work and production and consumption repair.
2. Haitong strategy: the market is in the middle stage from the end of policy to the end of performance
From the end of policy to the end of performance is a complex bottom building process. In this process, if the policy is strong, the market center will rise slowly. Similar to 2005, 16 and 19, the policy turned to the end of performance for the first time, and the range of Shanghai Composite Index rose or fell by 7.6%, 0.6% and 15.8%; If the policy is not strong enough and the market focus is slightly lower, similar to 2008 and 12, the policy turns to the bottom of performance for the first time, and the range of Shanghai composite index rises or falls by – 4.3% and – 13.3%.
Since the beginning of the policy shift, it indicates that the market has entered the layout period. Looking at the long-term, the market has entered a very considerable rising market after previous adjustments. In terms of the range, the rise in the later period is much greater than the slight adjustment in the layout period, and the adjustment range is actually very low compared with the later income. This policy shift began in December last year, marking that the central economic work conference set the tone for comprehensive and stable growth. Then, on March 16, the golden stability conference held a special meeting to emphasize “actively introducing policies conducive to the market”. On April 26, the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission continued to emphasize comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction and building a modern infrastructure system. On April 29, the Politburo meeting proposed to “strive to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range”, requiring “accelerating the implementation of the determined policies” and “stepping up the planning of incremental policy tools”. We expect to add more stable growth policies on the basis of accelerating the promotion of existing policies. It can be seen that the current policy bottom has been very clear. The market is in the middle stage from the policy bottom to the performance bottom, focusing on the long term and entering the layout period.
3. CICC | A shares: focus on the implementation of policies to stabilize growth and expectations
Judging from the internal and external environment during China’s May Day holiday, the overseas market was relatively volatile, and the US stock market rebounded slightly after a continuous and obvious correction. The ten-year US bond yield hit 3%, continued to hit a new high since 2018, and the US dollar index hovered at a high level; VIX shock climbing; International oil prices continued to consolidate against the backdrop of the stalemate in the international geopolitical situation.
From the perspective of China, Hong Kong stocks had a volatile opening performance earlier than a shares, and the steady growth sector outperformed relatively; In terms of local epidemic situation, the number of new cases in Shanghai continues to decline, and the prevention and control situation in Beijing is still severe, but there is no large-scale spread for the time being; Under the local epidemic prevention and control policies, the high-frequency data during the May Day period showed that travel and offline consumption were affected to a certain extent. On the whole, we believe that the marginal impact of internal and external factors on the current market during May day may be limited, and the future trend still needs to pay attention to the marginal changes of the main contradictions.
When we looked forward to 2022 at the beginning of the year, we judged that the Chinese and foreign cycles were reversed, and the whole may show the characteristics of “internal stagnation and external inflation”, “internal loosening and external tightening”. The negative growth of GDP in the first quarter of the United States was earlier than expected, which may indicate that the sequelae of the super stimulus policy under the epidemic plus the negative impact of the supply shock has begun to appear. Whether China and foreign countries will gradually converge to the synchronous downward trend in the future, or whether China will continue to take the lead and take the lead in recovery, is an important macro variable affecting the performance of global and Chinese asset prices. At present, the latter may be a situation with relatively high probability, which highly depends on the implementation of China’s steady growth policy and the progress of epidemic prevention and control. After the Politburo meeting, if the implementation of the steady growth policy is strengthened, or the probability of this situation is further improved. Looking ahead, we believe that although there are still many uncertainties inside and outside, the market already has the value of the middle line, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market. Structurally, we believe that the undervalued “steady growth” field still has a certain allocation value. We should pay comprehensive attention to the trend of overseas inflation, China’s “steady expectation” measures and the progress of epidemic prevention and control to judge whether the relevant growth sectors have entered the inflection point of repair.
Industry allocation suggestions: the main line of steady growth still has stage allocation value. Pay attention to the growth style according to the progress of global inflation situation and so on
1) in the “bottom grinding” stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, stable demand for real estate and related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.);
2) for the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many adjustments in the early stage, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc;
3) risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of “stagflation” risk, global liquidity and market sentiment.
4, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) strategy: after “golden pit”, slowly figure
● after the “golden pit”, slowly figure it out
We believe that one of the key points for A-Shares to obtain income this year is to grasp the low-level layout. The pre holiday market position meets the bottom conditions, and we think investors can regard it as this year’s “gold pit”.
Looking forward to the next quarter, we believe that we can no longer be pessimistic in strategy and should gradually turn to optimism. The improvement trend of the whole internal and external environment is a high probability event. At the same time, the improvement process of the main contradictions inside and outside the market is likely to be repeated. Investors should be prepared. The market will have a certain stage of shock in the bottom area. They should be patient in operation tactics. They should slowly figure it out and take the low-level layout as the basic principle.
● bargain hunting layout of sports warfare and grasp the post epidemic repair
We believe that the important clue to the bargain hunting layout in May is to grasp the post epidemic repair, and considering the current market sentiment and the scale of this round of epidemic, the relevant epidemic prevention policy signals also deserve attention.
Select from the comprehensive consideration of fundamental elasticity and valuation elasticity, preferably: 1) with valuation elasticity; 2) With fundamental recovery elasticity; 3) Varieties with certainty of fundamental recovery. Comprehensive consideration, suggestions for improving varieties of epidemic situation: express delivery, food, building materials, infrastructure / real estate, hotel and auto parts.
5, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : it is expected to rebound in the short term. Tactically, it pays attention to switching rather than attack
With the catalysis of short-term marginal factors, the orderly opening and resumption of work in Shanghai and the landing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, it is expected that A-Shares will rebound in the first half of May. However, as the profit outlook and the path of credit easing are still vague, we believe that the stock market has not yet had the opportunity to reverse, and the rebound is still dominated by weak index consolidation and structural opportunities. In the rebound, we believe that the tactical focus is not on attack, but on style switching, from growth to value, and growth rebound should be switched. The correction of supply chain supply capacity is not the core contradiction of the current market. The core of the market lies in the necessity of demand recovery and the trend of inflation. The growth style will still face the downward revision of profit expectation and crowded trading structure in the future. Investment focuses on stocks with low-risk characteristics, layout and stable growth related cycles and consumption.
Investment opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics: undervalued, performance, performance determination. Industry recommendation: 1) the direction of holding physical assets with stable cash flow: coal, chemical resources, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks; 2) Public investment direction dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, wind and solar power; 3) The dilemma reversed, focusing on the in-depth optimization of the supply side: pigs, Baijiu and consumer services. Q2 focused on the emergence of investment opportunities in consumption of building materials and steel.
6. Strategy of promoting Securities: price is more important than time, and the probability will build a complex bottom
The current market is already at the bottom.
1) pessimistic expectations have been reflected and released to a great extent. The previous sharp adjustment of the market was mainly affected by the fermentation of the Chinese epidemic + the depreciation of the exchange rate + the tightening of the overseas Federal Reserve. At present, on the one hand, the epidemic situation in China has been gradually improved. At the same time, the decision-making level has repeatedly asked for the stability of the industrial chain supply chain, the resumption of work and production of enterprises has been continuously promoted, and the supply chain impact from the epidemic situation will also be mitigated. On the other hand, the recent rise in US bond interest rates has slowed down. After the Fed meeting in early May, the market may further “boot landing”. In addition, despite the depreciation of the exchange rate, it did not bring a significant outflow of foreign capital.
2) the decision-making level has continuously increased “steady growth” on many important occasions, stabilized market expectations, and continuously consolidated the “policy bottom”. From the two sessions, the meeting of the Finance Committee and the recent meeting of the Political Bureau, the decision-making level’s determination to “stabilize growth” has been repeatedly confirmed. Subsequent monetary and credit policies are expected to be further relaxed. At the same time, the decision-making level also repeatedly stressed “maintaining the smooth operation of the capital market” and made clear arrangements for key issues such as supply chain, real estate and Internet supervision concerned by the market.
3) in combination with the 11 bottom characteristic indicators we have built exclusively, most of them have reached or close to the bottom level of the historical market: among them, credit pulse, decline rate, valuation, net breaking rate, risk premium, stock bond yield difference and issuance scale of partial stock funds have reached the bottom level of the historical market.
7. Livelihood Strategy: don’t listen to the sound of beating leaves through the forest and meet the tide of inflation in the window period
With the resumption of work and the recovery of demand, superimposed commodities enter the shift from expected trading to real trading, Chinese investors may usher in the rebound window period of “marginal improvement” of oversold growth stocks. However, it is more difficult to participate in this growth rebound. First, the volatility of American growth stocks has intensified under the interest rate hike, and global growth stocks are facing “profit downward revision”; Second, inflation may enter the second acceleration stage at any time, and China’s inflation may be ignited at any time.
The significance of May is to provide investors with a window for final switching, adjust the layout and meet the tide of inflation. Energy has certainty, metal has demand elasticity, and real estate and banks also have obvious opportunities for industry improvement. The recommended sequence for the next stage is: oil and gas, copper and aluminum, coal, gold, real estate, oil transportation, zinc, banking and chemical fertilizer.
8. Investment promotion strategy: the inflection point has arrived and the upward trend will begin
9. Gf’s strategy: the Enlightenment of the 18-year “compound policy bottom” to the current round of market bottom
The market valuation / ERP is further revised, and the ERP is close to the top area. At the low point of the index on April 26, all A-share PEs were in the historical quantile of 30% since 2010, close to the mean value – 1x standard deviation, and A-share ERP was in the historical quantile of 85%, exceeding the mean value + 1x standard deviation. Politburo meeting and A-share quarterly report further released policy and profit clues. The core concern of the market is how to treat this round of “policy bottom”, “valuation bottom”, “market bottom” and “profit bottom”?
The end of this year’s policy should be the “composite policy end” of China + overseas. The relationship between the “composite policy end” and the “market end” at the end of 18 has formed enlightenment for the present. Our report on March 27th pointed out that this year is “the Fed is firmly tight and China maintains stable growth with a bottom line”. Therefore, this round will form a “composite policy bottom” jointly by China and overseas. Looking back on Q4 in 18 to the beginning of 19: Q4 in 18 formed China’s “policy bottom”; However, under the “compound policy bottom”, China’s “policy bottom” does not mean the market bottom, and overseas factors (global liquidity contraction) are still suppressed; In January 19, China and overseas (Federal Reserve) jointly established the “compound policy bottom”, announcing the formal formation of the “market bottom” of a shares.
10. West China strategy: don’t be pessimistic below 3000 points in the bottom stage
Since April, China’s epidemic, supply chain impact and lack of confidence in steady growth have suppressed market risk appetite. After the concentrated release of pessimistic expectations, the valuation level of A-Shares fell back to an all-time low. At present, the allocation cost performance of the equity market gradually appears. There is no need to be pessimistic when the Shanghai stock index is below 3000 points. The Politburo meeting made it clear that the general tone of the policy of steady growth will continue. In the follow-up, with the improvement of the epidemic situation in China, the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, and the continuous efforts of policies in infrastructure, consumption, real estate and other fields, the stage with the greatest impact of the epidemic is gradually passing, and the market sentiment is expected to be repaired. In the market style of May, the blue chip sector with high dividend and value is recommended. Specific to the industry, pay attention to two main investment lines: first, those benefiting from stable growth policies, such as “banking, real estate and building materials”; Second, some consumer goods benefiting from the marginal improvement of China’s epidemic situation, such as “food and beverage”.
