“May Day” holiday has passed, how do A-Shares go?
. During the May Day holiday, the overseas stock market was “not peaceful”, and the US stock market rebounded slightly after a continuous and obvious correction. The ten-year US bond yield hit 3%, continued to hit a new high since 2018, and the US dollar index hovered at a high level. From the perspective of China, Hong Kong stocks had a volatile opening performance earlier than a shares, and the steady growth sector outperformed relatively. In addition, the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, which has attracted much attention from the market, will be officially announced in the early morning of May 5, which has affected the short-term trend and risk appetite of the capital market to a certain extent
On May 3, when the May 4th youth day came, Mo Yan, the winner of the Nobel Prize for literature, wrote a special letter to young friends all over the country – “don’t be blown down by the strong wind”, which became the hottest sentence of the holiday. Combined with the current A-share market, some market participants said that the end of the policy has appeared, and the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the central bank, the CSRC, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other regulatory authorities have issued policies to “escort” the capital market. Although, at present, the capital market is affected by multiple negative factors such as the international situation, epidemic situation and stagflation, investors need not fear or be blown down by this strong wind in the face of A-Shares near 3000 points.
so how do A-Shares go after the festival? How
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research report said that the four major factors affecting the market in the early stage have taken a turn one after another, the market forced selling pressure has been fully released, and the extreme pessimism has been gradually repaired. It is expected that the medium-term repair market lasting for several months will be opened from May, and it is suggested to actively lay out the four main investment lines.
West China strategy Li Lifeng said that after the concentrated release of pessimistic expectations, the valuation level of A-Shares fell to a historical low. At present, the allocation cost performance of the equity market gradually appears, and there is no need to be pessimistic when the Shanghai stock index is below 3000 points.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) research report said that at present, it has come to a stage where price is more important than time. High quality assets with valuation adjustment in place and profit expectation correction in place will be the first to stand out from the bottom.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that the current rebound space of the stock market may not be too optimistic.
Chinese journalists from securities companies sorted out the top ten A-share strategies of securities companies for readers.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the four repressive factors turned for the better and the four main lines rose in May
The four major factors affecting the market in the early stage have taken a turn one after another. The pressure of forced selling in the market has been fully released, and the extreme pessimism has been gradually repaired. It is expected that the medium-term repair market lasting for several months will start from May. It is suggested to actively lay out the four main investment lines. First of all, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has improved significantly. The Politburo meeting once again stressed the coordination of economic development and epidemic prevention. Secondly, the decision-making level once again comprehensively set the tone and responded to market concerns in the dimensions of infrastructure development, real estate support, relief of market players and healthy development of platform economy. Thirdly, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reduced its table in May, and the trade friction environment or phased improvement under the heavy pressure of overseas inflation. Finally, the first quarterly report of listed companies landed, and the market entered the performance vacuum period and confidence recovery period. After the adjustment in April, extreme pessimism has been fully released, and the market has passed the period with the greatest pressure of forced selling. Recently, some funds have begun to be actively distributed, and investors are also extremely sensitive to positive signals on the margin.
Therefore, with the positive signals of the four major factors affecting the market, the medium-term repair market lasting for several months is expected to start in May. It is suggested that investors should actively layout the four main lines of modern infrastructure, real estate, resumption of work and production and consumption repair.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the probability of A-Shares has entered the bottom area of a cycle
① from the perspective of investment clock, stock market valuation and adjustment time and space, the probability of A-Shares has entered the bottom area of a cycle. ② Learning from history, the signal of rebound to reversal is that about three of the five leading indicators of fundamentals have stabilized. At present, one has appeared and continues to track. ③ Continue to focus on the main line of steady growth, in which the new infrastructure is more flexible, such as digital economy and low-carbon economy, and gradually pay attention to the consumption related to economic recovery.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: after the “golden pit”, slowly figure
A key point for A-Shares to obtain income this year is to grasp the low-level layout. The pre holiday market position meets the bottom conditions, and we think investors can regard it as this year’s “gold pit”. Looking forward to the next quarter, we believe that we can no longer be pessimistic in strategy and should gradually turn to optimism. The improvement trend of the whole internal and external environment is a high probability event. At the same time, the improvement process of the main contradictions inside and outside the market is likely to be repeated. Investors should be prepared. The market will have a certain stage of shock in the bottom area. They should be patient in operation tactics. They should slowly figure it out and take the low-level layout as the basic principle.
The important clue of the bargain hunting layout in May is to grasp the post epidemic repair, and considering the current market sentiment and the scale of this round of epidemic, the relevant epidemic prevention policy signals are also worthy of attention. Select from the comprehensive consideration of fundamental elasticity and valuation elasticity, preferably: 1) with valuation elasticity; 2) With fundamental recovery elasticity; 3) Varieties with certainty of fundamental recovery. Comprehensive consideration, suggestions for improving varieties of epidemic situation: express delivery, food, building materials, infrastructure / real estate, hotel and auto parts.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: Tactical emphasis on switching rather than attack
The Politburo meeting made clear the “bottom line thinking”, and the idea of camera regulation also ensured the ability of policy action. However, we should not underestimate the complexity of the current macro environment and the lack of credit expansion momentum. Tactically, we should pay attention to switching rather than attack.
Investment opportunities in stocks with low-risk characteristics: undervalued, performance, performance determination. Industry recommendation: 1) the direction of holding physical assets with stable cash flow: coal, chemical resources, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks; 2) Public investment direction dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, wind and solar power; 3) The dilemma reversed, focusing on the in-depth optimization of the supply side: pigs, Baijiu and consumer services. Q2 focused on the emergence of investment opportunities in consumption of building materials and steel.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the market has a midline value and pays attention to the implementation of policies to stabilize growth and expectations
Judging from the internal and external environment during China’s May Day holiday, the overseas market was relatively volatile, and the US stock market rebounded slightly after a continuous and obvious correction. The ten-year US bond yield hit 3%, continued to hit a new high since 2018, and the US dollar index hovered at a high level; VIX shock climbing; International oil prices continued to consolidate against the backdrop of the stalemate in the international geopolitical situation. From the perspective of China, Hong Kong stocks had a volatile opening performance earlier than a shares, and the steady growth sector outperformed relatively; In terms of local epidemic situation, the number of new cases in Shanghai continues to decline, and the prevention and control situation in Beijing is still severe, but there is no large-scale spread for the time being; Under the local epidemic prevention and control policies, the high-frequency data during the May Day period showed that travel and offline consumption were affected to a certain extent.
On the whole, we believe that the marginal impact of internal and external factors on the current market during May day may be limited, and the future trend still needs to pay attention to the marginal changes of the main contradictions.
Looking ahead, we believe that although there are still many uncertainties inside and outside, the market already has the value of the middle line, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market. Structurally, we believe that the undervalued “steady growth” field still has a certain allocation value. We should pay comprehensive attention to the trend of overseas inflation, China’s “steady expectation” measures and the progress of epidemic prevention and control to judge whether the relevant growth sectors have entered the inflection point of repair.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : the inflection point has reached, and the uplink will start
In May 2022, A-Shares are expected to gradually stabilize and recover, and gradually move towards the starting point of a new round of upward cycle. Under the pressure of the epidemic, China’s economy has been impacted to a certain extent. However, the sharp adjustment of A-Shares in the early stage also reflects this impact. Looking ahead, the April Politburo meeting set the tone to fully expand China’s demand and strive to achieve the expected goal of economic and social development throughout the year. Measures such as increasing infrastructure construction, giving play to the pulling role of consumption and supporting rigid and improving housing demand have been set. The 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission made it clear to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system. At present, the epidemic situation is gradually alleviating, and new response measures are being arranged. Once the epidemic situation is under control, steady growth will gradually push the profits of listed companies out of underestimation. The hawks of the Federal Reserve are about to raise interest rates, but the expectation of raising interest rates may also peak. Once the US bond yield and the US dollar index peak and fall, the external pressure will be relieved.
Overall, the past adjustment and current valuation of A-Shares have fully priced many shocks in the past. In the future, it will enter the shock upward cycle with the mitigation of the epidemic, steady growth and external mitigation.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : price is more important than time, and these high-quality assets will stand out first
At present, we have come to a stage where price is more important than time. High quality assets with valuation adjustment in place and profit expectation correction in place will be the first to stand out from the bottom.
In combination with the first quarterly report and the prospect of future prosperity, focus on the following three directions: 1) consumption of core assets (alcohol, tax exemption, aviation, scenic spots and hotels): on the one hand, benefit from the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation. On the other hand, the share price and valuation of the sector have been at a low level, and the internal and external uncertainties can be attacked and retreated. 2) “Steady growth” sector (infrastructure, real estate, banking, etc.): the meeting of the Chinese Finance Committee called for “comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction”. The meeting of the Political Bureau stressed “striving to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year”, and the policy continued to increase. At the same time, the global market is still in a mess of high volatility and low risk appetite. Infrastructure, real estate, banking and other sectors are both security and policy driven. 3) In the “new half army”, the direction of strong immunity and maintaining high prosperity (new military materials, photovoltaic modules, wind power machines, semiconductor materials, 5g optical fiber and cable, UHV): combined with the certainty of valuation and performance, as well as the judgment of the leading indicators of our “new half army” timing framework, we believe that the scientific and technological growth sector is expected to usher in a wave of repair window in May.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : A shares still need to wait and still have a dominant value
The end of this year’s policy should be the “composite policy end” of China + overseas. The Politburo meeting in April continued to consolidate China’s “policy end”, but the overseas “policy end” has not yet been formed. The first quarterly report of A-Shares points to the probability of this round of apparent “bottom profit” formed in the interim report.
A shares still need to wait and are still dominated by value. Looking at the relationship between policy bottom, market bottom and profit bottom in this round with the thinking of “compound policy bottom”, from the end of 18 to the beginning of 19, China and overseas gradually confirmed that the “policy bottom” was the final condition for the last round of “double bottom in the market” of a shares. This round of China’s “policy bottom” has been gradually consolidated; But overseas “policy bottom” still needs to wait. Reiterate that the market value stocks are in the bottom area: 1 First, the relative prosperity advantage of the quarterly report shifted to the value sector; 2. In 2022, the direction of steady growth marginal credit is in traditional fields such as real estate and infrastructure; 3. There is still upward pressure on US bond interest rates. As the tightening of the Federal Reserve will still restrain the stocks with high valuation of a shares, it is suggested to use the rebound to continue to tangential to value stocks. Industry configuration: 1 High dividend value (thermal power / bank); 2. “Supply and demand gap” inflation benefiting resources / materials (coal / copper / potassium fertilizer); 3. “Old style” steady growth (real estate / consumer building materials / household appliances); 4. Consumption “steady growth” and post epidemic repair expectation (Internet media / leisure services).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : bottom building period, don’t be pessimistic below 3000
Don’t be pessimistic below 3000 during the bottom construction period. Since April, China’s epidemic, supply chain impact and lack of confidence in steady growth have suppressed market risk appetite. After the concentrated release of pessimistic expectations, the valuation level of A-Shares fell back to an all-time low. At present, the allocation cost performance of the equity market gradually appears. There is no need to be pessimistic when the Shanghai stock index is below 3000 points. The Politburo meeting made it clear that the general tone of the policy of steady growth will continue. In the follow-up, with the improvement of the epidemic situation in China, the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, and the continuous efforts of policies in infrastructure, consumption, real estate and other fields, the stage with the greatest impact of the epidemic is gradually passing, and the market sentiment is expected to be repaired.
In the market style of May, the blue chip sector with high dividend and value is recommended. Specific to the industry, pay attention to two main investment lines: first, those benefiting from stable growth policies, such as “banking, real estate and building materials”; Second, some consumer goods benefiting from the marginal improvement of China’s epidemic situation, such as “food and beverage”.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the rebound space of the current stock market may not be too optimistic
Current position how much rebound space does the stock market have—— May not be too optimistic. In terms of resumption of trading, the decline of the market before mid March is mainly due to three factors: first, China’s economy is under great downward pressure and the expected recovery of real estate is slow; Second, the Fed’s interest rate hike is much higher than expected, and the US dollar liquidity contraction is expected to be faster; Third, the black swan of the Russian Ukrainian war. After mid March, the epidemic situation in Shanghai had a great impact. At present, the main marginal improvement is the epidemic itself and the resumption of work and production. Then, a reasonable expectation is that this marginal change may make the index rebound to the platform in mid March. Since then, whether the market can further rise may also return to the factors that led to the market decline before March. At present, these factors have not improved significantly, and the market may continue to grind the bottom. In the follow-up, after mid June, we judged that the time when the liquidity pressure of the US dollar was the greatest and the exchange rate depreciated the fastest was over.
in addition, there is still great contraction pressure on US dollar liquidity from May to June (corresponding to the depreciation pressure of RMB exchange rate), but the boots may fall after the interest rate meeting in mid June
From the perspective of category style, the market may still focus on steady growth before economic expectations recover significantly, and steady economy is the premise of everything else. Subsequently, with the recovery of economic expectations, the market risk appetite also gradually picks up. The market may begin to look for the direction that can truly realize the fundamentals in the economic stabilization, which are mainly concentrated in manufacturing (growth, science and innovation) and consumption. In addition, from the first quarterly report of listed companies just disclosed, there are also some segmentation directions worthy of attention: such as cosmetics, textile clothing, medical services, quick-frozen food, semiconductor materials, CXO, military industry, etc.
