Since 2022, the overall market situation has been depressed, but the performance of the coal industry has been outstanding. Many leading companies have recently reached multi-year highs in stock prices.
Data show that since this year (as of April 29), the Shenwan coal index has increased by 12%, which is one of the few sectors to achieve positive growth.
On the news side, the Ministry of Finance reported on April 28 that the Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement on adjusting coal import tariffs. In order to strengthen the guarantee of energy supply and promote high-quality development, the Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided according to procedures that from May 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, the temporary import tax rate of zero tax rate will be implemented for coal
(Figure / Ministry of Finance)
How much impact does this have on the whole industry? Can coal stocks rise?
1. From May, China will implement zero import provisional tax rate on coal
According to the data of the General Administration of customs and China coal resources network, in 2021, China supplied 489.92 million tons of coking coal and imported 54.64 million tons of coking coal, accounting for about 10% of the supply; From January to February 2022, China supplied 77.6 million tons of coking coal and imported 8.49 million tons of coking coal, accounting for about 10% of the total supply; In February 2022, China supplied 35.9 million tons of coking coal and imported 2.99 million tons of coking coal, accounting for about 8% of the total supply.
In terms of the structure of imported coking coal, in March 2022, China imported 3.76 million tons of coking coal, a year-on-year decrease of 23.31% and a month on month increase of 25.97% In march, the top three import source countries were Russia, Mongolia and Canada, accounting for 37.95%, 25.75% and 13.77% respectively. From January to March 2022, 12.26 million tons of coking coal were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 8.94% 1-march the top three import source countries are Russia, the United States and Mongolia , accounting for 27.19%, 21.10% and 17.14% respectively.
Galaxy futures analyzes that the main reasons for restricting China's import of coking coal are as follows:
Mongolian coal is mainly affected by the epidemic, but at present, the epidemic situation in Mongolia is low and China is the main exporter of Mongolia. China and Mongolia support coal trade. With the opening of China Mongolia railway, Mongolian coal will have a great impact on China's imported coking coal market in the later stage;
Russia's coal export direction may gradually tilt to China, but the transportation capacity is still the main bottleneck;
The United States and Canada are mainly affected by import profits and distance.
On the whole, import zero tariff will hardly increase significantly until the above problems are solved. However, the national policy guidance points out that coal import is encouraged. If overseas prices fall in the later stage, the quantity of coking coal imported by China may increase to a certain extent .
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that coal price difference at home and abroad is still too large, and tariff adjustment may not have obvious effect in the short term . At present, the price of thermal coal at home and abroad continues to hang upside down, and the price difference is still large. The price difference between China and Newcastle thermal coal in Australia remains about 1000 yuan. Therefore, it is considered that the tariff adjustment may not have obvious effect in the short term. If the price difference between domestic and foreign coal gradually narrows, the effect of tariff adjustment policy is expected to be better reflected.
Everbright futures claims that Indonesia is the largest source of China's coal imports. According to the ASEAN Economic Cooperation Framework and import and export tariff, the current applicable tax rate is 0 The most favored nation tax rate is applicable to the coal imported from Russia, Mongolia and Canada, which varies from 2.5% to 6% according to different coal types at present, the high price of overseas coal is the biggest reason to restrain the growth of import volume. Before the fall of international energy prices, it is expected that the coal import volume will be difficult to increase significantly .
II. Performance of several coal enterprises exceeded expectations in the first quarter
In the just concluded April, listed companies of coal enterprises disclosed their production and operation in the first quarter. Benefiting from the continuous high operation of coal prices, the revenue and profits of coal enterprises have increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
According to the data, since the beginning of this year (as of May 2, the same below), 14 of the 37 coal targets in Shenwan have released the performance forecast for the first quarter of this year, of which, 9 coal stocks have a performance forecast ceiling of more than 100% .
III. The fund generally increased its holdings of coal stocks
Coal stocks have also become the "sweet pastry" in the eyes of the fund.
In terms of the number of funds held, the four coal listed companies with the largest number of funds held in 2021 were China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yankuang energy and Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) . In 2021, except Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) and Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) , the number of funds held by other listed companies increased Yankuang energy is the listed company with the largest number of increased holdings of funds, with 299 increased holdings of funds during the year
From the perspective of fund shareholding ratios, the listed companies with more than 7% of the fund's share of funds holding more than 7% of the listed companies that have more than 7% of the fund's share of fund holdings in 2021 year from the perspective of fund shareholding ratio. The listed companies that have more than 7% of the fund's share of funds holding in the year of 2021 are Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) thefund shareholding ratio decreased, and the fund shareholding ratio of other listed companies increased Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) is the listed company with the largest increase in the proportion of fund holdings, an increase of 12.96 percentage points during the year
IV. can coal stocks rise
Looking forward to the future, although coal stocks have come out of a wave of market, the allocation value of coal stocks is still optimistic by institutions due to performance driven.
open source Securities: affected by the epidemic, the current demand is very poor, and the epidemic will eventually be controlled. The government is also expected to continue to issue corresponding policies for steady growth, and the demand is expected to remain good is the best stage to buy expected and allocate coal stocks .
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : affected by the epidemic and the off-season, the price of thermal coal is under pressure in the short term. A new price mechanism will be implemented on May 1, adding that the window for price adjustment of large purchases is approaching, and the market wait-and-see mood is getting stronger. But overall, coal supply and demand pattern is still tight, and the industry boom will remain high . Coal enterprises have successively released their annual reports and first quarter reports, and their performance growth is generally fast, mostly exceeding expectations; The high proportion of dividends of listed companies reached a new high since listing, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market.
Cinda Securities: at present, it is in the early stage of a new round of upward cycle of coal economy, and the fundamentals, policies and companies resonate. At this stage, the allocation of coal sector is at the right time. Continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way, continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal it is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines:
First, the leaders of low value and high dividend power coal, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ;
Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , etc., which are both resource scarcity and significant growth;
Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
