Affected by multiple factors, the stock market has made a significant adjustment this year. However, with the gathering of a series of positive policy signals, many institutions believe that the current market “policy bottom” has been gradually consolidated.
Last week, the overall volatility of the A-share market was large. After the Shanghai index broke through 3000 points, there was a relatively strong rebound in the second half of the week. As of press time, the 3000 points of the Shanghai index were recovered, and the market sentiment has warmed up.
According to Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , the meeting of the financial Commission held on March 16 to stabilize the market means the emergence of the “policy bottom” signal. Last week, a higher-level Political Bureau meeting set the tone for future policies again and released positive signals in many fields, and the “policy bottom” was confirmed again.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) in the research report, it is also mentioned that from the historical law, there is a rebound basis in the market after the end of the policy is confirmed. However, considering that there are many disturbing factors such as the current severe epidemic situation in China, the unclear situation in Russia and Ukraine, the tightening policy of the Federal Reserve and the turmoil in the peripheral financial market, the subsequent rebound strength of the market may be affected to some extent. Comprehensive judgment, the market is expected to show a shock rebound trend.
For the judgment of the “policy bottom” of the stock market, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) put forward the view of compound bottom Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that this year is “the Fed is firmly tight and China maintains a stable growth with a bottom line”. Therefore, this round of market will form a “composite policy bottom” jointly by China and overseas. The statement on the synergistic and non antagonistic relationship between dynamic zeroing and stable growth at the Politburo meeting in April will help alleviate the market’s concerns about the economy and form the expectation of this round of “bottom profit”, and China’s “bottom policy” will be gradually consolidated. However, the overseas “policy bottom” still needs to be observed.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) also pointed out that looking at the relationship between policy bottom, market bottom and profit bottom in this round with the thinking of “compound policy bottom”, China and overseas gradually confirmed that the “policy bottom” was the condition for the final construction of the last round of “double bottom in the market” of A-Shares from the end of 18 to the beginning of 19.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) put forward the view that one of the five indicators that can be used as a reference for the signal of market reversal has stabilized.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the signal of market reversal can refer to the five indicators. The five indicators are: year-on-year social financing stock / year-on-year loan balance (reflecting monetary policy), cumulative year-on-year infrastructure investment (reflecting fiscal policy), PMI / PMI new orders (reflecting manufacturing industry), cumulative year-on-year sales area of commercial housing (early cycle industry), and cumulative year-on-year sales volume of automobile (early cycle industry). This logical framework is equally effective in explaining the starting point of the market in early 2019. For example, when the stock index bottomed in early 2019, the four leading indicators of year-on-year loan balance and social financing stock, cumulative year-on-year infrastructure investment, PMI new orders and cumulative year-on-year automobile sales bottomed out.
At present, among the five leading indicators, only social finance has stabilized, and whether other indicators can stabilize. In the future, we need to continue to track the effect of steady growth policies, China’s epidemic prevention and control, and overseas economic conditions. If the relevant leading indicators can stabilize and recover in May and June, it means that the data in April is the lowest point, then the low point in April supporting the stock market in turn is the lowest point, otherwise the possibility of U-shaped bottom and W-shaped bottom still exists
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : market probability will build a complex bottom
