At the bottom grinding stage, the willows are hidden and the flowers are bright. At present, the negative factors affecting the market are gradually releasing and entering the feasible stage. Structurally, they are optimistic about the oversold rebound of consumption and growth.
At present, the economy is gradually going through the dark moment. With the gradual confirmation of the inflection point of the epidemic and the increase of the steady growth policy, the worst time of real estate, consumption and services is about to pass, infrastructure investment is stable and improving, and the profit margin of industrial enterprises is improving. In the follow-up, we should pay attention to the downward pressure on the export manufacturing chain. However, on the whole, the economic inflection point is about to appear, and the molecular end impact is expected to be alleviated.
In the second quarter, overseas liquidity will usher in a tightening peak. After the US bond interest rate breaks through the key point of 3%, the high probability will appear at the turn of the second and third quarters. It is expected to be the first, and the valuation level of the equity market has been fully adjusted. The highlight of China's monetary policy lies in the directional support of structural monetary policy tools. For the exchange rate, the impact of RMB depreciation on A-Shares lies in speed rather than direction, and the subsequent impact is relatively controllable.
The April Politburo meeting boosted market confidence and highlighted the significance of protecting the market. The pressure of steady growth does not change the confidence of steady growth, the expected goal of economic growth remains unchanged, and the policy orientation of real estate and platform economy contains turning changes. Since the beginning of the year, after three rounds of substantial adjustments in the early market, the indexes have gradually entered the value range, which is reflected in the fact that the equity risk premium has entered the "hitting area". The valuation quantiles of the major indexes have been in a relatively cheap position, and the transaction proportion of popular tracks has decreased significantly.
In terms of allocation, in the medium term, the consumption in the grinding stage is dominant, focusing on two sub areas: first, the food and beverage, catering tourism, hotel, automobile, home appliance and other industries that have fully adjusted and benefited from the marginal improvement of the epidemic; Second, medicine and biology with low valuation. On the other hand, after a sharp decline in the early stage, the configuration value of growth style appears, focusing on the opportunity of oversold rebound, and focusing on the Internet, new energy, national defense and military industry, TMT, etc. In May, the preferred industries are household appliances, food and beverage, medicine and biology.
