to dark has passed, space is more important than time
– what signal did the Politburo meeting release? What does it mean for A-Shares 1) the economic pressure has increased, but we still need to strive to achieve the expected development goal of the whole year. The follow-up steady growth is expected to continue to rise, which helps to enhance market confidence. 2) The real estate regulatory policy is more flexible, and “implementing policies due to the city” will obtain more activity space, and the restrictions on the capital side of real estate enterprises will probably usher in marginal deregulation. 3) It has once again given a high positioning to infrastructure, and the investment logic of infrastructure chain is expected to continue from short-term to medium and long-term. 4) The subsequent regulatory correction of the Internet platform may have further actions, which will help to further repair the market risk appetite.
— once again, space is more important than time in front of strategic buying points, and A-Shares have entered the value range of long-term allocation economic growth goals and the direction of steady growth will effectively calm the previously wavering policy expectations. Although the fundamental reversal of macro expectations and the reconstruction of long-term confidence in the market still need to be confirmed by more signals on the right, from the perspective of risk return ratio of long-term allocation, A-Shares have entered the deep value range.
– rebound has been driven by the first level. It is suggested to focus on the two logic of oversold growth and post epidemic supply chain recovery . First, the key words of previous sharp falls and rebounds are reversal, that is, the targets of oversold in the early stage are more flexible during the rebound, such as photovoltaic, military industry, chips, etc; The second is the sectors that directly benefit from the recovery of the supply chain after the epidemic, such as auto parts, transportation, etc from the medium-term perspective, we should continue to pay attention to three certainty premiums before the signal on the right side of the fundamentals appears: 1) the certainty of steady growth policy under “triple pressure”; 2) Dilemma reversal and certainty of long-term performance improvement; 3) The certainty of supply-demand mismatch in the medium and short term.
5 month gold stock portfolio
China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) : diversified product portfolio; The first echelon of copper and cobalt in the world; Benchmarking overseas high-quality management mode.
Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) : underestimated value, leading the aluminum deformation and calendering industry with high scenery; Expand recycled aluminum upward and high-end aluminum foil downward to open up the long-term growth space of the company.
Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) : coking coal leader, who wants to acquire 51% equity of Huajin coking coal, a high-quality asset of the group; The supply and demand of coking coal is always tight, and the upward elasticity of coking coal is the largest when it is driven by stable growth.
Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) : products are booming, and there is great room for the growth of medium and long-term lithium oxyphosphate integrated development.
satellite chemistry: ethylene and new materials projects are put into operation, opening up growth space, and the profit center is expected to reach a new level.
China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) : real estate + the core target of stable growth of infrastructure. The high-quality leading value of CNOOC real estate needs to be revalued.
Jingke energy: capital expenditure and financial expenses have been significantly improved, with leading layout and TOPCON battery technology.
Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Co.Ltd(600416) : 6 national special awards for scientific and technological progress, and various equipment departments have become the turning point of 100 billion level industries.
Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) : superalloy core card enterprise, located in the upstream of aeroengine on pochang snow thick competition road.
Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) : deeply practice retail thinking, continuously verify the big home model, and steadily improve channel efficiency; Professional managers have perfect system, sufficient incentives and strong vitality.
Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) : channel product competitiveness continues to improve. In the future, with the recovery of the industry, the performance elasticity can be expected.
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China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) : vaccine + chemical medicine high growth supports 2022q1 performance outperforming the industry, and the warming trend of downstream pig prices provides a catalyst for the reversal of the plight of the animal protection sector.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : capital position is better than the industry, with strong certainty of cost reduction, and is expected to fully enjoy the reversal dividend.
Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) : management landing + sustained high growth in the future and continued to build its own core competitiveness.
China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) : the company has prudent land acquisition, stable finance, obvious first mover advantages in diversified businesses and solid fundamentals.
Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) : land reserves are abundant and resources are excellent. After the company makes up its positions, the gross profit margin rebounds and the debt structure is reasonable.
