In the first quarter of this year, the overall performance of the vitamin market was sluggish. According to wind data, the price of VA continued to fall to 207.5 yuan / kg, the quotation of VE has been maintained at 90 yuan / kg since March, and the prices of vitamin D3 and vitamin B1 showed a downward trend in varying degrees. The rise of calcium pantothenate, which had performed well before, fell back, and the quotation began to stagnate at 360 yuan / kg in March.
Liu Wei, an analyst at Baichuan Yingfu, told the associated press that the market demand is not expected to be very good in the second quarter of this year, and the price will be weak and stalemate, but calcium pantothenate will continue to be good and strong.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) analysis shows that under the influence of Russia Ukraine conflict, epidemic and other factors, BASF faces the risk of shutdown and the decline of DSM production, which makes the vitamin supply in Europe tight, or will “ignite” a new round of vitamin business cycle, and VE is expected to usher in a super business cycle again.
q1 vitamin market in general downturn
From the middle of November 2021, the price of VA has been declining all the way. Industry data show that from November 15, 2021 to April 29, 2022, the price of VA fell from 305 yuan / kg to 207.5 yuan / kg, a decrease of about 32%.
The price of VE has been rising steadily since last year. The quotation of VE fluctuated little in the first quarter, rising from 87.5 yuan / kg to 90 yuan / kg, with a slight increase of only 2.9%.
According to the monthly market report of Baichuan Yingfu from January to March, the overall vitamin market is weak, the market situation is poor, the downstream inquiry is cold, the downstream procurement mainly maintains the rigid demand, the overall demand of the vitamin market is sluggish, and the procurement is poor. After a round of crazy market of strong variety calcium pantothenate in January, the current price remains at a high level. As of April 29, the quotation of calcium pantothenate has reached 360 yuan / kg.
Liu Wei pointed out that due to the continuous impact of the Russian Ukrainian war, the price of calcium pantothenate raw materials rose due to the rise of crude oil prices and sea freight, and the production enterprises were willing to support the price in the case of rising production costs. However, the main reason for the wide rise in the price of calcium pantothenate is the impact of the relationship between supply and demand in the market. There is a shortage of spot supply, and the production enterprises control the supply of goods. The market is characterized by tight spot price.
Combing the published quarterly report, among the three VA production enterprises, only Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) performance increased slightly, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.18%. At the 2021 annual performance briefing, the company told the financial associated press that although the market price of vitamin A has continued to decline recently and the gross profit margin of products has decreased, the company’s vitamin a production process is mature and the cost control is effective, which will not lead to losses.
The net profit attributable to the parent company of Xiamen Kingdomway Group Company(002626) and Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) in the first quarter was 120 million yuan and 260 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 59.51% and 2.37% Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) comment on the performance of Zhejiang Medicine Co.Ltd(600216) the first quarter said that the price of VA, the company’s main product, fell due to the rise in the price of raw materials, and the performance of Q1 in 2022 fell slightly.
It is noteworthy that in the first quarter of this year, the performance of calcium pantothenate manufacturers Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) and Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) were quite different: the net profit attributable to the parent company of the former decreased by 8.30% to 121 million yuan in the first quarter, while the net profit attributable to the parent company of the latter increased by 82.02% to 103 million yuan in the first quarter.
In response, Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) relevant people told the associated press, “the company is the same as Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) products, but the enterprise scale is different. Our R & D investment and expenses are much larger than them.”
Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) attributed the performance change to the capacity release of new projects, the rise in the prices of vitamin products such as vitamin K3 and vitamin B5 and chromium salt products. At present, Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) has a capacity of 4000 tons of calcium pantothenate. Relevant people of the company told the financial associated press that the price rise of calcium pantothenate had a positive impact on the company’s performance.
q2 weak market is difficult to change, and many vitamin manufacturers layout new products
Looking forward to the second quarter, Liu Wei, an analyst at Baichuan Yingfu, told the financial associated press that the recent vitamin market demand is weak. Although there may be a wave of procurement in the market in mid and late April, because the second quarter is a traditional off-season, the market demand will not be very good, and the price will be weak and stalemate.
Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) relevant people told the financial associated press that because of the serious epidemic in China, the company’s production and operation were affected. “The output was affected in April, and the prices of raw materials and transportation costs were rising, affecting the income and gross profit.”
In terms of calcium pantothenate, Liu Wei believes that in the short term, the calcium pantothenate market will still be affected by the relationship between supply and demand. The goods are tight and the price is strong, and the supply is in short supply. He predicts that the market price of calcium pantothenate will continue to strengthen, and it is expected that the price of calcium pantothenate will reach more than 400 yuan / kg in the future.
Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) relevant people said that at present, the price of calcium pantothenate remained optimistic in the second quarter, but it was difficult to predict the subsequent situation due to global uncertainty Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) said that the current production capacity is relatively large, and the calcium pantothenate market in the second quarter is difficult to predict.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) , according to the analysis of several research reports of capital securities, the price of calcium pantothenate gradually rebounds, which is expected to continue to contribute stable profits to Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) and help the company achieve rapid growth in 2022. At the same time, considering the gradual digestion of low-cost orders and channel inventory in the early stage, it is expected that the profits of each quarter are expected to show an accelerated trend.
According to the financial Associated Press reporter, a number of vitamin production enterprises choose to deal with the risk of price fluctuations through the layout of new product production lines.
Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) on the investor’s question and answer platform, the company is actively arranging the vitamin B production line. At present, the vitamin B6 and vitamin B12 projects are in trial run, and the annual production capacity is 6000 tons and 3000 tons respectively. In addition, the company’s projects under construction include taurine 30000 T / a project, PPS phase III 7000 T / a project, menthol 5000 t / a project, carbonic anhydride 500 t / a project and azabicyclic 500 t / a project, which are expected to be put into trial production this year. Among them, the Caron anhydride and aza double ring project is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter of this year.
Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) relevant people explained to the financial Associated Press: “the company is ready to make all vitamin series products in the future, and there are no new products. If the original products rely on price rise and price fall, it will always be a cyclical company. In the future, the four vitamin sectors will be linked together, and the company will be less and less affected by product price fluctuations.”
Brother Enterprises Holding Co.Ltd(002562) also said that in addition to calcium pantothenate, the company also arranged vitamin B1, B3, K3 and other vitamin products. At the same time, it also arranged production lines related to essence and iodine contrast agent. The capacity of the new production line was gradually released, and the company had good anti risk ability in the face of price fluctuations of a single product.
aftermarket VE is expected to surpass the business cycle
With the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe and the United States have successively announced sanctions plans against Russia, further aggravating the tense situation of natural gas supply in Europe. Natural gas is the key raw material for the synthesis of acetylene (the upstream raw material of VE). The shortage of natural gas in Europe has further exacerbated the shortage of vitamin supply in Europe.
Earlier, Martin brudermuller, chief executive of BASF, said in an interview with Frankfurter Zeitung: “in BASF, if the supply of natural gas falls sharply and is permanently lower than 50% of our maximum demand, we will have to reduce or completely shut down the production of the largest plant in Ludwigshafen.”
Bloomberg News reported that affected by the supply interruption of key intermediates, DSM’s q1ve production is expected to decline by more than 30% in 2022, and will affect q2ve production.
Liu Wei told the financial associated press that BASF’s foreign ve oil plant is in a state of shutdown and is expected to continue until the fourth quarter, and the VA oil plant will start normally.
The supply ends of VA and VE are oligopoly, and the global vitamin production enterprises are mainly concentrated in Europe and China. According to the financial Associated Press, in terms of VA, the European production capacity mainly includes 7500 tons of DSM, 6000 tons of BASF and 6 Beijing Quanshi World Online Network Information Co.Ltd(002995) 000 tons, accounting for 50% of the global production capacity. In terms of VE, European production capacity mainly includes 30000 tons of DSM and 20000 tons of BASF, accounting for 36.4% of the global production capacity.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) research report points out that Europe is an important vitamin production base in the world, and the shortage of natural gas will affect the vitamin production in Europe, which will have a significant impact on the global vitamin supply side, or “ignite” a new round of vitamin business cycle again.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) research report believes that looking forward to the next two years, the merger of DSM and nente technology will significantly improve the competition pattern of VE industry, while China has long relied on imported ve intermediate m-cresol. Under the background of tight supply side and anti-dumping duties imposed on the import side, the price has been rising all the way in recent years, the cost side support of VE is strong, and VE is expected to usher in a super business cycle again.
