Recently, the A-share market fluctuated, and some funds chose to “change the field and change the mood”. Therefore, we can see that although the CSI convertible bond index is still low recently, the trading volume has been significantly enlarged.
Liquidity directly determines whether the market has a market, how far the market can go and how big the market is. The subject matter that lacks liquidity may even be hit by retail investors; Those who can’t dig for gold, and those who can’t dig for gold naturally.
how terrible is the lack of liquidity
2 million yuan can hit 20cm limit
In the recent market downturn, especially in the science and innovation board, there are many companies with a total trading volume of less than 10 million a day. At present, some stocks are extremely illiquid. For example, on April 28, when the science and Innovation Board Company Memsensing Microsystems (Suzhou China) Co.Ltd(688286) opened the call auction in the morning, it was smashed by a sale order of 700 shares with a large limit of 20%. Based on the transaction price of 33.02 yuan, 700 shares are 23000 yuan, which can hit the limit for a short time.
According to the closing data on April 29, there are 121 stocks with a total turnover of less than 20 million, of which 54 stocks have a total turnover of less than 10 million; Many stocks have gone out of the ECG mode. For example, the total transaction amount of Bonree Data Technology Co.Ltd(688229) on April 29 was 2.449 million, the largest transaction was only 101 hands, and the rest were mostly one hand and two hands. For example, the total turnover of Anhui Yuanchen Environmental Protection Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688659) was 3.96 million, and the total turnover of Chengdu Jouav Automation Tech Co.Ltd(688070) 4 on April 29 was 4.24 million; In fact, there are many stocks of scientific innovation board with ECG mode.
In this regard, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, told reporters that after a long period of continuous decline in the market, the market profit-making effect is poor, so the trading volume is reduced. In addition, there is a law of shrinking transactions before previous small and long holidays. Recently, the market turnover rate is low and the fluctuation is increasing. There will be a certain increase in transaction activity after mid May, but it is still difficult to return to the average level.
Hu Po, manager of Rongzhi investment fund, believes that the recent market sentiment is depressed, there is no new capital for public and private placement, and the willingness of individuals to participate in individual stocks is significantly reduced, which is the main reason for the lack of liquidity in the recent market. Because of the high standard of individual account opening on the science and innovation board, it further leads to the difference of liquidity. In this case of poor liquidity, if individual stocks held together by institutions are sold, the overall fluctuation may be very large and the impact will be great.
science and technology innovation board can pass the high delivery
improve trading activity
The high-tech attribute of Kechuang board company makes its high stock price characteristic obvious. Statistics show that as of the closing on April 29, the share prices of 55 companies on the science and innovation board were higher than 100 yuan, which is the concentration of 100 yuan shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
In addition, from the perspective of tradable shares, most of the tradable shares are less than 70 million shares. At present, about 60% of the 420 companies on the science and innovation board have less than 50 million shares. High share prices and low circulating stocks are also the incentives for many stocks to lose liquidity. However, recently, the high transfer and high dividend of listed companies have been hyped by the market. For example, in the early stage, Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) distributed 100 yuan in cash for every 10 shares and Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) distributed 50 yuan in cash for every 10 shares, which made the company’s share price rise for a time.
With the disclosure of the annual report coming to an end, some science and Innovation Board companies have also thrown out high dividend and high transfer schemes. On April 20, Hemai shares announced that the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 30 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, and increase 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with the capital reserve. From the perspective of share capital scale, the total share capital of Hemai shares is only 40 million shares, and the circulating share capital is only 8.99 million shares. The high share price and low circulation make the company’s shares lack liquidity; On April 27, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) issued the distribution plan. The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 50 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, and increase 4.8 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with capital reserve. Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) has only 43.81 million shares in circulation.
In this regard, Ma Cheng, chairman of juze investment, told reporters that high transfer has two benefits for activating the market and improving market liquidity. First, stock dividends can enrich market liquidity and improve market vitality to a certain extent; Second, the transfer and delisting of shares will reduce the original stock price. In the later operation process, there are often expectations of filling in rights, and some speculative investors will actively participate in the filling in market, which will improve the vitality of the market.
However, in the view of Zhang men, general manager of Haokun Shengfa investment, a large proportion of shares issued by listed companies is actually a structural adjustment of listed shareholders’ rights and interests. At present, some people believe that the performance of the science and innovation board is relatively low, and the market liquidity can be improved through high transfer. However, it believes that although there are certain factors affecting the liquidity of an individual stock, the key lies in whether the profitability and other fundamentals of the individual stock are recognized by the market. Therefore, the sci-tech innovation board, including all listed companies, should do a good job in the company’s business and continuously improve the company’s profitability. Only the liquidity brought by the expansion of share capital on this basis is meaningful. Otherwise, to stimulate the speculation of share price by blindly sending high is tantamount to drinking poison to quench thirst, which is of little significance to the long-term development of the company.
transaction downturn, ultra short market difficult to do
some private hot money Nuggets convertible bonds
With the recent market downturn, many hot money private investors began to enter the field of convertible bonds to dig for gold. Not only the popular science article “how to do a good job in convertible bonds” triggered discussion, but also private equity people posted the transaction records of convertible bonds.
A well-known hot money person in a market said, “this May Day holiday can study convertible bonds”. Coincidentally, another private placement group in Guangdong is also paying attention to the opportunity of convertible bonds. In fact, with the continuous release of market benefits, many stocks began to stop falling and rebound, and the strength of positive stocks also stimulated the strong performance of convertible bonds.
Recently, there has been an obvious sharp rise in urban convertible bonds, including 20.08% on April 27, 22.09% on April 28, and 19.6% on April 29.
The A-share market fell to varying degrees in these three days. At this time, the profit-making effect of convertible bonds is obvious. As of the closing on April 29, a total of 28 convertible bonds had increased by more than 5%, of which 6 convertible bonds had increased by more than 10%, and huawang convertible bonds had increased by 27.73%, ranking first, followed by the Silk Road convertible bonds, which had increased by 24.19%.
Obviously, from the transaction amount, it can be recovered. At present, there are 400 convertible bonds in the transaction, 268 of which have a total transaction amount of more than 30 million yuan, of which 137 have a total transaction amount of more than 100 million yuan, 52 have a total transaction amount of more than 500 million yuan, 25 have a total transaction amount of more than 1 billion yuan, and even 8 products have a total transaction amount of more than 4 billion yuan. The largest total transaction amount is urban convertible bonds, reaching 11.7 billion yuan.
Data show that convertible bonds have good liquidity.
In this regard, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, told reporters that convertible bonds, especially those with strong debt, have certain individual stock option attributes: limited downside risk, unlimited upside income, and the time value cost of convertible bonds is lower than individual stock options. This asymmetric risk return feature is very suitable for risk avoidance before small and long holidays, as well as in the market environment with epidemic situation and uncertain international environment, so it will be popular recently. Hu Po, fund manager of private placement network, also said that because convertible bonds are t + 0 transactions, they are more flexible in transactions, so they attract some hot money for group defense.
Hu Po also told reporters that the convertible bond market, except for bank shares, is mostly small and medium-sized market value stocks, which may correspond to the national securities 2000 index. Under the current situation of general decline of small and medium-sized stocks, the price of positive stocks corresponding to convertible bonds has been greatly adjusted, but the adjustment range of convertible bonds itself is not enough, so their conversion premium rate is at a record high. Under such circumstances, the risk of convertible bonds is still large, and the possibility of rapid decline is not ruled out. At the same time, the liquidity of convertible bonds is relatively lack. If there is a centralized selling, it is not ruled out that there may be large price fluctuations. Therefore, the risks need to be treated with caution. However, once the convertible bond falls below the face value, the debt nature of the convertible bond will gradually highlight and have strong defensive characteristics.
