Recently, after nearly two years, the Shanghai stock index fell below 3000 points, the lowest fell to 2863 points, and then stood at 3000 points again. For a time, where is the bottom of this round of adjustment has become the focus of hot discussion in the market.
Securities Times · databao extracts the bull bear conversion data of each round of a shares. The current market meets three bottoming signals compared with each bottom period in history.
a shares: four bottom features in the history
Let’s take a look at the K-line chart of Shanghai stock index since 2000. The four historical levels of the big bottom can be said to be generally recognized by the market. The corresponding time points are 998 in June 2005, 1664 in October 2008, 1849 in June 2013 and 2440 in January 2019.
looking back on the past four historical bottoms, there was a combination of “policy bottom – market bottom” such as the split share structure reform in 2005; Three major policies to rescue the market in 2008 and the “four trillion” investment plan; In 2012, the national development and Reform Commission intensively approved more than trillion yuan of infrastructure investment projects, while insurance capital and the national team collectively increased their holdings of a shares; In 2018, the high-level made a voice for stock market fluctuations, the easing of Sino US trade frictions and the central bank’s comprehensive RRR reduction in early 2019.
In addition to the favorable policies, there is a significant feature of the previous four bottoms, that is, most stocks are cheap enough for example, during the period of 1664 points of the Shanghai stock index in 2008, the median rolling P / E ratio of all stocks was 18.51 times, and that of nearly 63% stocks was less than 30 times
policy is favorable, playing a combination fist
With the recent continuous correction of the stock market, the favorable policies have also played a wave of combined punches. On March 16, the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting to study the hot topics concerned by the current market, including macroeconomic operation, real estate policy, China concept shares, platform economic governance, financial market stability in Hong Kong, China, etc. On this positive note, the Shanghai Stock Index soared by more than 3% and the gem index soared by more than 5%.
Data treasure statistics, including China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Guosheng securities and many other research reports, believe that the low point on March 16 constitutes the end of the policy.
In April, the major indexes remained weak and accelerated to catch up with the bottom. The Shanghai composite index once fell below 2900 points and the gem index fell below 2200 points. The policy mix is also being released. On April 15, the central bank announced the reduction of the reserve requirement, on April 26, the CSRC issued 16 articles on public offering development, on April 27, the five measures of the national standing committee to stabilize employment, and on April 29, the Political Bureau of the central Committee set the tone to maintain the smooth operation of the capital market.
Under the care of a series of policies, the market finally ushered in a rapid rebound. On April 27, the Shanghai index rose by more than 2%, and the gem index rose by more than 5%. On April 29, the main indexes rebounded rapidly after the relevant good afternoon, the Shanghai index recovered the 3000 point mark, and the gem index soared by more than 4%.
net reduction hit a new low at the stage
In addition to the policy bottom, the main participants in the market are also taking practical actions to show their optimistic position about the future market China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that the phased bottom area of A-Shares is often accompanied by a significant increase in industrial capital holdings or a decrease in net holdings. According to the statistics of data treasure, the net reduction of industrial capital in April has reached the lowest monthly level since last year, and the net reduction amount is less than 10 billion yuan. This data shows that industrial capital does not want to sell equity at a “low price”.
At the same time, the tide of repurchase of listed companies is also rising again data show that since this year, more than 470 companies have bought back nearly 30 billion yuan in total. Not only industrial capital, but also the northbound capital, which has always been the king of bottom reading, has also reversed the trend of large-scale net sales in March, with a net purchase of more than 6 billion yuan since April in addition, this year’s tormented public funds also launched a wave of self purchase, highlighting their optimism for the future market.
At the end of the current valuation
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) recently also pointed out that at present, A-Shares have seen multiple bottom signals. If the above bottom signals can be met at the same time, A-Shares will usher in a more certain upward “perfect storm” Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that the “policy bottom” is usually 1.5-3 months ahead of the “market bottom”. If 2863 points are established at the end of the market stage, it will be about 1.5 months away from the end of the policy.
In fact, in addition to the policy bottom being widely recognized by the market, the valuation bottom of A-Shares is also quite solid. Even for the high valuation of track stocks generally considered in the current market, there has been a large decline in this round of adjustment. According to the data, the median earnings ratio of 2122 points on the gem is 32.08 times, slightly lower than the level of 1184 points in 2018.
The valuation level of the whole market is on a par with the previous four historical bottoms. According to the statistics of data treasure, the median rolling P / E ratio of all stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets during the period of 2863 points of Shanghai stock index was 25.9 times, lower than the level of 1849 points and 2440 points, and slightly higher than the level of 998 points.
as the mainstay of the market, the valuation level of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index representing blue chips is also attractive . During the period of 2863 points, the weighted P / E ratio of CSI 300 index was 10.69 times and the P / B ratio was 1.33 times, both lower than the level of Shanghai composite index at 998 points and 1664 points.
In terms of rate of return, the current dividend rate of CSI 300 index in recent 12 months is 2.39%, which is low, mainly because most companies have not completed the dividend of last year’s annual report. If the dividend data of last year is used to calculate the dividend rate of the current CSI 300 index, it is 2.97%, exceeding the bottom data of the previous four times.
The current stock market is generally undervalued, similar to previous bottoms. In terms of the number of net breaking stocks, the net breaking stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets accounted for more than 10% during the period of 2863 points, which was close to the level of 1664 points and 2440 points in addition, from the perspective of the proportion of stocks with low P / E ratio (less than 30 times), the proportion of stocks with low P / E ratio in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 49% during the period of 2863 points, which has been higher than the previous three historical bottoms, highlighting the large number of undervalued stocks at present industries: at present, the P / E ratio of 19 industries is lower than that of early 2019 and that of 12 industries is higher than that of early 2019, indicating that the current industry valuation is also generally lower than that of early 2019.
