On April 30, the breeding enterprises in the two cities released the first quarter performance report. The financial report showed that the losses of pig breeding enterprises in the first quarter were still very serious.
According to the data, 18 of the 22 breeding enterprises lost net profit in the first quarter, of which 4 companies with a loss of more than 1 billion yuan came from pig breeding enterprises, namely Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) .
The loss situation of breeding enterprises in the first quarter can also be seen from the sales data released by the company, and whether the loss trend can be changed has become a topic of concern to investors. From the data monitoring, the industry situation improved in April. Zhuo Chuang information data show that the average price of Chinese pigs showed a strong upward trend after a low shock. As of April 27, the average price of ternary trading at home and abroad this month was 13.62 yuan / kg, an increase of 11.86% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 40.83%. In the first four months, the average price of three yuan transactions at home and abroad was 13.14 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 54.42%.
4 pig prices began to rise
Zhuo Chuang information research report shows that in early April, China’s pig prices still continued the low consolidation trend. The continuous resistance of the breeding end to low prices made it difficult for pig prices to continue to fall. However, due to weak consumption, pig prices also lacked the ability to move up. However, in the middle of the year, driven by multiple favorable policies, the bullish mood in the industry was ignited. Led by the reluctant sale of head breeding enterprises, the enthusiasm of retail investors to wait for the rise warmed up, the pig price showed a strong one-sided upward trend, and the national average price exceeded the “14 yuan” mark. In the latter ten days, as the pig price temporarily peaked, the game atmosphere between supply and demand was strengthened. Under the joint action of various forces, the pig price turned into shock consolidation.
Niu Zhe, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, introduced in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that due to the obvious increase in breeding costs and the significant increase in feed prices, the sales price of pigs in April still increased in the state of “slight surplus supply” in the industry. “After May, it is difficult for pig prices to return to the previous low price, and more importantly, they show a shock upward trend.”
Since this year, the breeding enterprises have suffered serious losses, and the breeding cost remains high. The small and medium-sized farmers have very low intention to fill the column, which also reduces the supply. According to the current monitoring, “in the medium term, the price of the industry will rise spirally. After the May Day holiday, the price is expected to fall to a certain extent, but after the middle of the year, large-scale breeding enterprises may increase the price by controlling the quantity and reluctant to sell.” Niu zhe introduced to the reporter of Securities Daily.
at the end of 4 month, some regions have achieved turnaround
With the rising prices, the breeding industry, which had suffered serious losses, saw signs of performance recovery. According to the data monitored by Zhuo Chuang information, as of April 29, the loss of pig breeding industry narrowed. “The loss of self breeding heads in the early stage was 300 or 400 yuan, which has narrowed to about 10 yuan at present. On April 29, individual regions with good market conditions have turned around.” Niu zhe told the reporter of Securities Daily.
However, from the supply and demand side, due to the previous high capacity elimination rate of retail investors, there is little room for the improvement of pig supply in May. Earlier, Zhu danpeng, an analyst of China’s food industry, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the rising feed prices could not resist the risks for small and medium-sized farmers, while the decline in pig prices made it more and more difficult for the industry to obtain profits.
Zhuo Chuang information believes that, combined with the overall situation of the industry, after the unexpected adjustment in April, the pig market mentality may gradually return to rationality, the pace of pig marketing may be accelerated in the first ten days, and the pig price may fall slightly. In the middle and late ten days, the market supply may be tight, driving the rise of pig prices. From the perspective of demand, the support of May Day holiday is relatively weak, there are no obvious positive factors in other periods, and the demand recovery may be relatively slow. From the perspective of the market as a whole, the pig price may fall first and then rise in May, and the overall average price may be higher than the level in April, but the situation of sharp rise and fall may be reduced, and the market price adjustment may return to rationality.
