For lithium mining enterprises, the sunshine this spring is particularly bright. On the evening of April 29, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The net profit of the company in 2021 was 2.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 213.37%; In the first quarter of this year, it achieved a profit of 3.328 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of more than 14 times Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ‘s performance growth was even brighter. The company made a profit of 682894 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 224.5% year-on-year; In the first quarter of this year, the net profit was 254 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13996%.
“After the auspicious year of the ox, the situation is better this year. The tiger jumped in the first quarter!” Some people in the lithium-ion industry told reporters that driven by the huge demand in the new energy electric vehicle market, the demand for cathode materials, especially lithium iron phosphate, has increased significantly, Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and a number of lithium-ion upstream enterprises are enjoying the most profitable period in history, “I can’t believe I earned it”.
How long can the good days of lithium mining enterprises last? Recently, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the “slow movement” of downstream vehicle manufacturers has eased the tight supply of lithium salt to some extent. However, some insiders said that due to the limited increment of lithium salt products this year, the supply-demand relationship of lithium carbonate will remain in a tight balance as the epidemic gradually subsides. In the secondary market, stimulated by the news that the auction price of overseas lithium concentrate has risen again, the lithium ore sector that has been silent for many days has been red for three consecutive days, among which Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) is proud to take the “triple board”.
products continue to rise in price, and lithium mining enterprises collectively “Huyue”
How much money do lithium enterprises make? Doubling performance is “normal performance”. The highest performance increase in 2021 is Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , more than 30 times! The report card of nearly 20 enterprises engaged in the development of lithium mines in Shanghai shows that they are engaged in the development of lithium mines every year.
For example, the salt lake lithium extraction leader Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , thanks to the timely release of new capacity with an annual output of 20000 tons, the company’s annual capacity of lithium carbonate reached 30000 tons, and the net profit in 2021 reached 4.478 billion yuan, an increase of 120% over 2020.
The price rise of lithium salt caused by the tense relationship between supply and demand has made the “money path” of upstream mining enterprises clear in 2021. Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) said that the company’s profit growth was mainly due to the sharp rise in the sales price and sales volume of lithium carbonate.
In retrospect, since July 2021, the ton price of lithium carbonate has increased from about 90000 yuan to nearly 300000 yuan by the end of the year. Although many mining enterprises expressed “incredible” emotion, the strong demand of the downstream new energy vehicle market supported the price of upstream materials to continue to rise all the way.
At the beginning of 2022, the price of lithium carbonate soared again. After the ton price quickly exceeded 300000 yuan, it went straight to 500000 yuan.
“The price rise of lithium carbonate has some hype, but the core lies in that the downstream demand is far greater than the upstream production capacity.” A person from a lithium carbonate enterprise in a share told reporters that when lithium carbonate rose to the “sky high price” of 500000 yuan in the first quarter, many battery manufacturers still came to pick up the goods.
That’s true. Taking Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) as an example, the company’s profit in 2021 increased by 224.49% year-on-year, and the performance in the first quarter of this year increased by 13996% year-on-year. Although Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) previously had a small performance base, the 140 fold increase was enough to highlight the huge profits of lithium salt products.
Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) also benefited from the price rise of lithium salt products Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) 2021 achieved a net profit of 937 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 189.22%), and the company achieved a profit of 1.022 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 12 times.
Similar to the situation of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) also includes Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , etc. Although Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and other leaders have not completed the feat of “the performance in the first quarter exceeded that of last year”, it is an indisputable fact that lithium mining enterprises welcome the “Tiger Leap” after the “year of the ox”.
price has dropped slightly, and supply and demand will remain in tight balance in the medium term
“The price of lithium carbonate has indeed dropped recently, but the overall decline is not large. The latest ex factory price of electric carbon is about 480000 yuan.” The person in charge of a lithium carbonate enterprise with an annual output of 10000 tons in Qinghai told reporters that there are two main reasons for the correction of lithium carbonate price: first, the lithium carbonate production capacity dominated by lithium extraction from salt lakes has been gradually restored; Second, affected by the epidemic, the “slow running” of downstream vehicle manufacturers has eased the originally tight lithium salt supply situation to a certain extent.
For the fall in the price of lithium salt products, the analysis of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network believes that it is mainly affected by the epidemic. Although the start-up of automobile enterprises has entered the recovery and commissioning stage, the impact of previous shutdown is still on. The superposition of lithium salt import increment is significant, and the “increase in supply and decrease in demand” has formed a certain reversal of short-term supply and demand.
Some industry analysts said that the epidemic will eventually pass. In the face of the expectation that the production and sales of new energy vehicle market will exceed 5 million vehicles in 2022 and achieve a growth rate of about 50%, the huge demand for lithium salt still exists objectively.
Behind the tight supply-demand relationship of lithium carbonate is the scarcity of lithium resources, and the difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match. The speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth is the key to the problem. It can be seen from the current public disclosure that there will be no large increase in lithium carbonate capacity in 2022.
The large-scale expansion of battery factories has brought explosive growth in demand. Since 2021, a number of power battery enterprises including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) have announced that they will build and expand the capacity of lithium batteries. According to incomplete statistics, only the head power battery enterprises announced that the new capacity in the next five years has exceeded 2000gwh.
“As the upstream expansion projects cannot be fully put into operation or reach production this year, the tight supply balance cannot be changed in the short term, and the price of lithium salt may remain strong.” Executives of a lithium concentrate enterprise in Tibet believe that as downstream enterprises gradually return to normal, the relationship between supply and demand will be tense again, and the price probability of lithium salt will rise again.
Anxin Securities believes that due to the limited increment of the mine end this year and the accelerated resumption of production of downstream new energy vehicles, it is expected to form a strong support for the demand for lithium salt, and the price of lithium salt is still expected to remain high.
accelerate resource development, and some upstream enterprises have accelerated
A fact that cannot be ignored is that the scarcity of lithium resources is the main factor leading to the tension between supply and demand, and the soaring price of upstream products has also added a huge “burden” to the downstream industrial chain.
The high price of lithium has attracted great attention of relevant national departments. “The support at the national level will create favorable conditions for accelerating the green and efficient development of China’s lithium resources.” Some lithium mine developers told reporters that there is still potential for lithium resource development in Sichuan, Tibet, Jiangxi and other places. The acceleration of lithium mine development progress will help release more lithium salt production capacity.
The new construction or expansion projects of some upstream manufacturers are expected to accelerate. For example, Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , which has a capacity of 10000 tons of lithium carbonate, the first production line of phase II 20000 tons of lithium carbonate project has been put into feeding test, and the second production line is undergoing equipment installation.
Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) Zabuye phase II lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 12000 tons was started in April. Only from the perspective of lithium carbonate capacity, and after the transformation, it is expected to reach 10000 tons / year of lithium concentrate capacity in 2023 (converted into about 5000 tons of lithium carbonate), Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) next year’s lithium carbonate capacity will reach 17000 tons.
“Constrained by the supply of lithium resources, Chinese enterprises are accelerating the development of China’s lithium resources, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and so on.” According to the Research Report of securities companies, the development speed of China’s lithium resources is expected to be further accelerated due to the superposition of policy support and industrial capital agglomeration.
