With big eyes and bushy eyes, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) even took the lead in selling the liquor on Thursday, not only with the Baijiu plate but also the big market.
On the same day, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell all the way after the opening, and there was no resistance. In the afternoon, it fell by more than 5% and finally closed down by 4.56%. The turnover throughout the day exceeded 10.7 billion yuan, and the market value evaporated by more than 110 billion yuan. Affected by this, other Baijiu stocks have also been down. At the close, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) fell 4%, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) also dropped 5%, and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) fell 6%.
It should be noted that since the end of last year, Baijiu stocks have been back for more than 10 days, Baijiu index has dropped 14%, and the market value of the whole plate has evaporated nearly 680 billion yuan.
why is Baijiu so bad?
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) heavy volume fell, Baijiu plate suffered setbacks
In January 13th, the Baijiu plate suffered heavy setbacks, and the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) of the leading stock dropped and fell. As of the close, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) fell 4.56% and 4.14% respectively. In addition, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co.Ltd(002646) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) all fell by more than 4%, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) fell by more than 5%, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) fell by 6.26%.
On that day, the overall Baijiu index fell 3.86%, ranking first in the two cities. The big drop in Baijiu shares also dragged down the market index, and the Shanghai index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem fell 1.17%, 1.96% and 1.71% respectively.
Baijiu Baijiu liquor has been retracting for more than 10 days since the end of December last year. The total index of liquor index has dropped to 14%, while Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) have fallen by more than 20%. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) have all lost more than 12%, and the whole Baijiu plate has evaporated nearly 680 billion yuan.
Why Baijiu stocks fall? Disturbed by four factors
analysts pointed out that the recent Baijiu stock continued callback, mainly by four factors:
First, China's third largest Chinese stock fund, UBS (Luxemburg), China's selected stock fund has been reducing Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) for two months in a row, which has depressed the popularity of Baijiu stock.
Two, the epidemic situation in China is spotted, which may affect the Baijiu consumption scenario, thus affecting terminal demand.
Three, the market rumors of high-end Baijiu are facing the increase of consumption tax.
Four, the expected acceleration of the pace of accelerated interest rate hike is concerned. Some of the market worries that some funds will flow from the stock market to the fixed income market, and suppress the valuation of the Baijiu plate.
According to the data on Morningstar's official website, in November and December last year, UBS's UBS (Luxembourg) China selected equity fund, the third largest overseas Chinese equity fund, significantly reduced its shares of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) for two consecutive months.
Specifically, last November, UBS (Luxembourg) China select equity fund reduced its Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) position by 7.52%; In December, the fund reduced its Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) position by 12.40%. As of December 31, 2021, the number of shares held by the fund Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has decreased to 2321600 shares, with a market value of US $747 million, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has decreased to its second largest heavy position.
Meanwhile, the recent outbreak of spot infections in Guangdong, Henan and Tianjin is also a concern for the consumption of Baijiu in the Spring Festival. However, China Baijiu believes that the spread of the epidemic in some areas has affected the consumption of Baijiu and other high-end liquor consumption scenes. It is still necessary to track the situation. Taking into account the improvement of China's epidemic prevention and control capacity, the vaccination speed is accelerated, and the protective barrier is constantly strengthened. It is estimated that the new round of epidemic will have a great impact on liquor consumption.
In addition, the market rumors that high-end Baijiu are facing increased consumption tax has been outflowing. Although it has been circulated many times, with the announcement of over 10 wine companies such as Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Jiannanchun, the Baijiu industry will face increased tax risk. For Baijiu industry, the consumption tax reform has always been the "sword of Damour and Chris". The bullet left in the barrel is far more deterrent than the bullet flying out, because it can continue to affect the psychology of a group of people. Before the Baijiu consumption tax reform policy has not landed, the psychological impact on investors may always exist.
The expected warming of the accelerated pace of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve also has a certain impact on the capital market. The latest data show that the CPI of the United States increased by 7% year-on-year in December 2021, reaching a new high in nearly 40 years. The Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute believes that the rapid rise of inflation will promote the Federal Reserve to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. The Fed may start raising interest rates as early as the end of asset purchase in March, raising interest rates about three times during the year, and may begin to reduce its balance sheet in the second half of the year. Compared with the previous round of monetary policy normalization cycle, the pace of tightening will be significantly accelerated. With the rise of interest rates, some funds will flow from the stock market to the fixed income market. When the valuation of US stocks is obviously high and deviates from economic fundamentals, there is a callback risk in the stock price. Overseas stock market fluctuations may affect China's stock market through cross-border asset allocation portfolio adjustment and risk aversion. At the key time points of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and US stock fluctuations, China's stock market may follow fluctuations in the short term.
Baijiu plate will be the future market? The agency looks at it this way
Caixin Securities pointed out that the recent market for Moutai's direct increase in the price of the game aggravated, Baijiu plate volatility intensified, superimposed the Fed's interest rate hike accelerated pace expected warming, plate valuation fell. At present, the Baijiu is still active, and the main product structure of liquor enterprises is continuously optimized. Overall, the current Baijiu boom continues, channel prices and inventory conditions are healthy, demand is still strong, valuations will create a good allocation opportunities.
Wan Lian Securities said that the Baijiu market will bring the price increase to the climax near the Spring Festival. Over 10 Baijiu enterprises such as Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) have announced the price increase of some products. Due to a certain time lag in the implementation of price increase measures to dealers, most of the relevant liquor products have not yet achieved price increase. Recently, the outbreak of epidemic around the country is of great concern for the consumption of Baijiu in Spring Festival. But in the long run, the trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading is unchanged, and the upward trend of the plate has a solid demand base.
Huachang Securities believes that despite the Baijiu demand differentiation, the consumption of local areas is uncertain. However, the whole country sees that consumption is gradually being passivated. From the perspective of payment collection, the positive price cycle of famous liquor continues on the whole, the price rise of some brands is smooth, and the dealers' confidence in payment collection is still sufficient. The industry's payment collection goal in the first quarter is relatively positive, generally between 30% and 40%. The payment through channels is promoted normally. With the superposition of the high-quality operation in the first three quarters of this year, the report end of each liquor enterprise has spare strength, and the performance in the first quarter has strong support, The collection and report have a good start, and the report driver is still determined.
