"Now in Nankang, the manufacturer's business is out of stock, and the logistics center is basically in a state of congestion." Chen Zhongfeng, chairman of Ganzhou Haiyue Furniture Co., Ltd., told China Economic Weekly, "the orders of some furniture factories in December 2021 are 2-3 times that in November."
While the furniture business was booming, Chen Zhongfeng smelled a trace of abnormality: "we started as an e-commerce. In previous years, because of the \'double 11\', the furniture sales in November were generally better than that in December, but in 2021, the business in December was better than that in November."
In addition to the anomaly, Chen Zhongfeng's words also implied worries: "we may still be eating the dividends of real estate. After consumers buy a house, it usually takes one to two years to buy furniture. So far, we haven\'t felt the pressure brought by the recession of the real estate industry, but what will happen in the future?"
the online sales of the furniture factory in 2021 12 month are as good as " " strange "
Like real estate, there is a saying of "nine gold and ten silver" in the furniture industry. However, there is no "gold and silver" in September and October 2021. On the online market, even the popular "double 11" in previous years was defeated before December.
Chen Zhongfeng used "very strange" to describe the hot scene of furniture sales in December last year. "After the" double 11 "in previous years, the online business in December was basically weak, but the sales volume of some businesses in December last year was 2-3 times that of November."
In China Furniture Association Youth Committee executive chairman, chairman of Nankang furniture association, Gu Jiansha, chairman of Jiangxi free kingdom Furniture Co., Ltd., this phenomenon is not accidental. "Now the" double 11 "effect is not comparable with previous years. Now the tiktok sales of furniture have been normalized, especially those platforms like shaking the voice, and the style of the electricity supplier has changed through live broadcast.
Different from online stores, traditional offline stores do not feel such "abnormality". December is their peak sales season every year, and then it turns weak in February of the next year. The sales gap is very obvious.
The front-end of the supply chain also has a clear contrast to the prosperity and weakness of the furniture factory. The orders of Nankang intelligent material preparation center (producing furniture parts) years ago have been full, and more customers have come to negotiate than usual. "Now we basically have to take orders after the year, but the whole February will show a state of low orders." Said Zeng Shuo, general manager of Ganzhou Nankang Chengfa furniture industry Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
Why is there such a contrast? Nankang furniture factory business owners give two explanations.
One is that dealers should "stock up". Gu Jianxia said that the business of the furniture factory was really better in December, because the new year is approaching, the logistics holiday, and the dealers will appropriately increase some inventory. Chen Zhongfeng also holds a similar view, "under the background of the epidemic, dealers are worried about Limited Logistics and will carry out a wave of procurement in December."
Second, "consumers hope to live in a new house before the new year, so they will buy furniture on a large scale before the new year." Chen Zhongfeng said.
home appliances go to the countryside, new houses decrease, 2022 furniture industry mixed
Although the major furniture factories in Nankang were busy "collecting money" years ago, for furniture enterprises, the next market situation may be mixed.
On December 8, 2021, the State Council Information Office held a regular policy briefing of the State Council to introduce the relevant situation of the "14th five year plan" to promote agricultural and rural modernization, and proposed to "encourage qualified areas to carry out the renewal of rural household appliances, implement the subsidy for furniture and home decoration to the countryside and a new round of automobile to the countryside, and promote the renewal of durable consumer goods for rural residents."
Recalling the previous round of home appliances to the countryside policy, on December 22, 2007, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce jointly announced that the work of "home appliances to the countryside" aimed at expanding China's rural consumption was the first pilot in Shandong, Henan and Sichuan provinces. From 2009 to 2012, the subsidy for home appliances to the countryside was nearly 90 billion yuan. According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, in the four years since the implementation of the policy, by the end of November 2012, 293 million sets of household appliances had been sold in the countryside, realizing sales of 707.1 billion yuan.
The policy of home appliances to the countryside launched in 2022 has a wider range of subsidies and more product fields, including furniture, home decoration, automobile and other fields.
According to the analysis of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) Research Report, the furniture to the countryside policy is expected to reproduce the process of home appliances to the countryside, promote the penetration and consumption upgrading of furniture products, and provide more sufficient power for the medium and long-term development of the industry. In the medium and long term, the demand growth potential of the furniture industry is large, and the furniture to the countryside policy is expected to promote the penetration and consumption upgrading of furniture in rural areas.
Shengang Securities believes that compared with small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry, leading enterprises are more likely to further improve their market share in rural areas under the "furniture to the countryside" policy by virtue of their own industry status and channel advantages.
However, it is difficult to judge how the real estate market will change in 2022 and the impact on the furniture industry.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) according to the analysis, housing demand is still the main driving force driving the growth of furniture consumption, and the year-on-year growth of revenue of customized furniture enterprises, software furniture enterprises and kitchen electric furniture enterprises in a single quarter has a strong correlation with the year-on-year growth of completed residential area in a single quarter.
On December 15, 2021, according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to November 2021, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 9596.54 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. Among them, the residential construction area was 6795.4 million square meters, an increase of 6.5%. The new construction area of houses was 1828.2 million square meters, down 9.1%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 1350.17 million square meters, down 8.4%.
The decline of new construction area has triggered market concerns about the future.
"After consumers buy a new house, they generally start decoration in 1-2 years. In other words, the buyers who buy furniture to decorate a new house are basically the previous buyers." Chen Zhongfeng is worried about the furniture market after 2022.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) general manager of securities fixed income financing headquarters Fan Wei, a researcher at Tsinghua University, is optimistic about the future development of the home decoration industry: "From a longer-term perspective, we believe that the intellectualization of home decoration and the greening of home decoration will bring great space to the whole market. In the next five years, the smart home and green home industry may reach the trillion level, which is actually equivalent to the supply side reform of the home decoration industry. The home decoration industry is more intelligent, convenient, green and environmentally friendly Will bring some new needs. "
Capital is also excited about the furniture industry in 2022. On the evening of December 29, 2021, Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) announced that Hillhouse capital invested 200 million yuan to take shares in a company of Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) whose main business is chairs. Since the "furniture to the countryside" policy, the share prices of many listed companies in the furniture industry have risen sharply.
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