As a large-scale investment project with Chinese characteristics practicing the concept of new urbanization, regional comprehensive development maintained rapid growth in quantity and scale in 2021. Behind the growth of quantity and scale, how to improve the quality is an important issue in the next stage of comprehensive development projects in the area.
With the determination of local land and spatial planning, regional development projects will usher in a new round of development window. How should government and enterprises seize the opportunity and win-win cooperation? This paper analyzes it from three aspects: market pattern interpretation, hot policy focus and development trend prospect.
\u3000\u3000 1 。 interpretation of market pattern
\u3000\u3000 1 。 1 comprehensive development of the area is of great significance to promote urban development
Regional comprehensive development refers to the implementation of land maturation through the implementation of land acquisition, demolition, municipal infrastructure and public service supporting facilities in the whole region, and the introduction of effective enterprises to be responsible for the industrial introduction, secondary construction Urban public service behavior.
For local governments, the comprehensive development of districts is the carrier of urban construction, development and upgrading; For investors, it provides a medium and long-term platform for them to participate in urban construction and development; For local platform companies, it is an important opportunity for their market-oriented transformation.
\u3000\u3000 1 。 2 characteristics of comprehensive development of area in 2021
As a hot spot in the field of investment and financing in recent years, the comprehensive development of the area presents the following four characteristics in 2021:
(1) the market heat is not decreasing, and the quantity and scale are growing
The market demand and transaction activity of comprehensive development projects in the area are still high in 2021, and the overall transaction scale exceeds that in 2020. The transaction scale is mostly distributed between 5 billion yuan and 15 billion yuan.
(2) central enterprises are the main force of investment, and the number of participating central enterprises has increased
At present, large construction central enterprises are still the market leader of regional projects. The number of central enterprises participating in regional projects has increased. In addition to construction central enterprises, more and more central enterprises in specialized fields have participated in regional projects.
(3) hot areas become investment outlets for regional development
The transaction scale and number of regional projects in urban renewal, EOD and other fields have increased.
(4) core cities with concentrated resource elements are investment hotspots
The core urban agglomeration is a hot investment area, and most of the transaction projects are distributed in the core cities of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Chengdu Chongqing, Yangtze River Delta, Central Plains and other urban agglomerations. Investors pay more and more attention to regional GDP, population, industry and other key elements in project selection.
\u3000\u3000 1 。 3 comprehensive development of shushushuo area
In this paper, the regional comprehensive development projects with an investment scale of more than 2 billion yuan in 2021 are counted and analyzed. The data comes from the "case" urban development investment decision support platform.
1 . In 2021, the popularity of comprehensive development projects in the area will not decrease, and the quantity and scale will reach a new high
Following the upsurge in 2020, the comprehensive development of the area will remain hot in 2021. According to the data, from 2019 to 2021, the number of investment in comprehensive development projects in the area is 79, 116 and 142 respectively; The investment scale is 400.5 billion yuan, 1033.9 billion yuan and 1456.2 billion yuan respectively. The investment scale and quantity of the project reached a new high in 2021, surpassing 2020 in both scale and quantity, reflecting strong market demand.
2 . The investment scale of regional comprehensive development projects tends to be miniaturized
From the analysis of the project scale range, projects with an investment scale of less than 2-10 billion yuan will account for 57% in 2020 and 62% in 2021.
As the space for urban incremental development is becoming more and more limited, we preliminarily judge that there is a certain trend of miniaturization of regional development projects in the future.
In the future, the income of regional projects will be more and more diversified, and the dependence on land transfer income will be gradually reduced. Small projects are easier to control the investment risk of the project.
3 . The regional comprehensive development projects are mainly distributed in the core urban agglomeration with concentrated resource elements
In 2021, the concentration trend of regional comprehensive development projects in core urban agglomeration is still very obvious. The projects are mainly distributed in Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration, Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, Central Plains urban agglomeration and other regions.
From the perspective of provincial distribution, the top ten provinces with the investment scale of regional comprehensive development projects in 2021 are Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, Guangdong, Hubei and Shanxi respectively. Among them, the provinces with an investment scale of more than 100 billion yuan include Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Hunan, with an investment scale of 258.4 billion yuan, 221.5 billion yuan, 183.1 billion yuan, 142 billion yuan, 104.2 billion yuan and 100.7 billion yuan respectively.
4 . The advantages of central enterprises in the comprehensive development of the area continue to expand
In 2019, the transaction scale of central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises of comprehensive development projects in the area will be 272.9 billion yuan, 52 billion yuan and 75.6 billion yuan respectively; In 2020, the transaction scale of central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises of comprehensive development projects in the area will be 747.2 billion yuan, 123.2 billion yuan and 163.5 billion yuan respectively; In 2021, the transaction scales of central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises of comprehensive development projects in the area were 1176.9 billion yuan, 129.9 billion yuan and 149.5 billion yuan respectively.
From 2019 to 2021, the investment quantity and scale of central enterprises in regional projects are increasing year by year. By 2021, it has opened up a large space with local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises.
5 , 2021 top ten investors of regional comprehensive development project
In 2021, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) investment group took the lead in the national regional comprehensive development projects according to the project investment scale. The top three investors were China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) Investment Group Co., Ltd., CCCC Investment Co., Ltd. and CCCC City Investment Holding Co., Ltd.
6 competition pattern of major central enterprises
In 2021, the eight major construction central enterprises participated in and arranged regional projects, and China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) and China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) were far ahead in the number and scale of transactions of regional comprehensive development projects.
7 . Distribution of hot areas
With the continuous introduction of supporting policies in the fields of urbanization construction, urban renewal, EOD, double carbon and rural revitalization, these new fields have also become investment and financing hotspots, integrated with regional development and formed a more comprehensive concept.
Among the comprehensive development projects in the area in 2021, there are 19 projects in the field of urban renewal, 18 in the field of EOD, 1 in the field of rural revitalization, 4 in the field of Vocational Education City Construction and 30 in the field of industrial park construction. It shows that under the influence of policy orientation, regional projects continue to adapt to the investment demand under the new situation.
\u3000\u3000 2。 hot policy focus
2.1 urbanization construction
In 2021, the state put forward new requirements in improving the quality of new urbanization, promoting the effective integration of population into cities, and improving the carrying capacity of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.
Important policies:
The relevant spirit of the central economic work conference, the key tasks of new urbanization and urban-rural integration development in 2021, the outline of the 14th five year plan and long-term objectives in 2035, the outline of the national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network plan, etc.
Impact:
(1) under the premise of curbing new local implicit debt, infrastructure investment can be carried out moderately in advance; Promote coordinated regional development and improve the quality of new urbanization.
(2) promote the effective integration of agricultural population into cities, orderly relax the restrictions on urban settlement, and improve the carrying capacity of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas.
(3) population integration is the basis of urban development. While promoting regional coordinated development, it further strengthens the development of key urban agglomerations and core urban circles.
(4) population and economic development level are the core indicators for investors to select investment areas, focusing on key urban agglomerations and core urban circles.
2.2 urban renewal
Urban renewal is one of the hot spots in recent years. In 2021, national ministries and commissions and local governments continuously issued relevant policies.
Important policies:
Notice of the general office of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development on carrying out the first batch of urban renewal pilot work, notice of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development on preventing large-scale demolition and construction in the implementation of urban renewal action, urban renewal policies of provinces and cities - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Xi'an, Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, Wuxi, Fuzhou, etc.
Impact:
(1) focus on exploring the overall planning mechanism of urban renewal, exploring the sustainable model of urban renewal, and exploring the establishment of supporting systems and policies for urban renewal.
(2) strictly control the large-scale demolition, additional construction and relocation, and the expansionary area projects will gradually focus on the transformation of urban stock space.
(3) as the implementation subject of urban renewal, urban investment essentially strengthens its position as a comprehensive urban operator. Urban investment needs to integrate advantageous resources of all parties to promote urban development.
(4) the mode of authorized development has been fully practiced in the urban renewal policies of various cities.
(5) solve the urban renewal and construction funds by means of policy loan support.
2.3 EOD and dual carbon
Since the construction of ecological civilization was first listed in China's five-year plan during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the requirements for the construction of ecological civilization will continue to deepen in 2021, putting forward higher requirements for the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.
Important policies:
The notice on recommending the second batch of eco-environmental oriented development model pilot projects, the opinions of the general office of the State Council on encouraging and supporting social capital to participate in ecological protection and restoration, the measures for the management of key ecological protection and restoration funds, and the opinions on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization Notice on printing and distributing the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, etc.
Impact:
(1) China Development Bank gives preference to resource allocation and increases support. Focus on supporting the implementation of EOD pilot projects with good foundation, moderate investment scale, clear project boundary, obvious back feeding characteristics and significant environmental benefits.
(2) attract social capital to participate in ecological protection, restoration and governance by means of awards and subsidies, and give different awards and subsidies to projects with different investment amounts.
(3) the state attracts investors through pilot projects, policy loan support, awards and supplementary funds, and leaves exploration space for the future implementation mode of "resources + projects". The combination of EOD and regional development is conducive to promoting win-win between government and enterprises.
2.4 Rural Revitalization
Since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the strategy of rural revitalization, accelerating agricultural and rural modernization has always been the focus of policy guidance.
Important policies:
Five year action plan for improvement and improvement of rural living environment (2021-2025), law of the people's Republic of China on promotion of rural revitalization, opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and accelerating agricultural and rural modernization, opinions on financial support for the development of new agricultural business entities Measures for the management of subsidy funds for linking up and Promoting Rural Revitalization by the central government, strategic plan for Rural Revitalization (2018-2022), etc.
Impact:
(1) the Rural Revitalization Strategy will kick off nationwide, and more funds and resources will be directed to rural agriculture. Agricultural modernization will be the investment and financing position in the high-quality development stage after the process of urbanization.
(2) make up the weaknesses of agriculture and rural areas, promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, promote industrial development, increase farmers' income, rural governance, social security, national food security and rural construction.
(3) in terms of subsidy funds, focus on supporting the cultivation and expansion of characteristic and advantageous industries in underdeveloped areas.
(4) continue to focus on rural infrastructure construction, continue to increase investment, accelerate the completion of rural infrastructure weaknesses, promote the interconnection of urban and rural infrastructure, and promote the upgrading of rural infrastructure.
2.5 financial policy
In 2021, all ministries and commissions also put forward new requirements in strengthening the debt risk control of local state-owned enterprises, doing a good job in the prevention and resolution of hidden debts of local governments, reducing dependence on land transfer income, strengthening risk control and debt resolution.
Important policies:
SASAC printed and distributed the guiding opinions on strengthening the debt risk control of local state-owned enterprises (Guo Zi fa cai Ping GUI [2021] No. 18), the notice on reporting the debt risk control of local state-owned enterprises, the guiding opinions of banking and insurance institutions on further preventing and resolving the hidden debt risk of local governments (Yin Bao Jian Fa [2021] No. 15) No. 15 supplementary notice, etc.
Impact:
(1) the principle of "strictly controlling new implicit debt, properly resolving existing implicit debt, and no systemic risk" will continue. Platforms with weak strength and heavy debt burden in regions or tail platforms with relatively weak urban investment attributes and low administrative level will face greater liquidity or pressure, and the possibility of credit risk will increase.
(2) the continuation of financial supervision and the difficulty of regional project financing require investors to deeply consider the local economic development level, government and platform credit when selecting investment areas. At the same time, strictly control the balance of the project itself, reduce dependence on government finance, and reduce hidden payments or empty sources of income.
2.6 collection and management policy
In order to standardize the collection and management system, the Ministry of Finance issued the notice on issues related to the transfer of four government non tax revenues, namely, revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use right, special revenue from mineral resources, sea area use fee and non resident Island use fee, to the tax authorities for collection.
The background of the promulgation of the notice is the continuation of the reform of the collection and management system to further standardize and improve efficiency. The collection of non tax income such as land transfer income by the tax department will make the whole fiscal and tax payment process more standardized, and the whole collection process will be more transparent to the central government, and the central control over local areas may be strengthened. Before and after the promulgation of the notice, there will be no significant difference in the process and cycle from land transfer income collection to expenditure arrangement. However, with the targeted introduction of specific collection management policies by the pilot localities listed in the notice, whether the cycle and time for local governments to actually obtain land transfer income will be greatly affected needs to be verified in practice.
\u3000\u3000 3。 development prospects and suggestions
3.1 focus on land spatial planning
With the gradual stability of local land and spatial planning and the determination of urban boundaries, the expansion area development will also usher in the last round of expansion opportunities. In the future, regional development projects will present the coexistence of urban stock space transformation and incremental development. Investors should focus on the investment opportunities brought by the land and space planning of key cities in the core city circle.
3.2 improve project selection ability
1 . Improving quality is the foundation for the implementation of the project
With the slowdown of China's urbanization process, the investment demand and scale will gradually decrease, and the regional projects will change from quantity to quality. When selecting projects, investors should pay attention to the quality of the project itself, strengthen the principle of self balance of the project, reduce dependence on government finance and reduce hidden payments or empty sources of income.
2 , land and real estate market are important supports for regional projects
In 2021, the supply and demand scale of residential land in China decreased significantly compared with the same period in 2020. Investors should pay more attention to the risks brought by the regional land and real estate market when arranging regional comprehensive development projects. At the same time, we should control the investment progress, match the actual situation of the land market and live within our means. Finally, investment and construction should also be closely combined with regional land and industry, and do a good job in the momentum and marketing of the land market.
The aggregation of resource elements such as 3 , population and GDP is an important factor for the success of future projects
Investors should raise the threshold of investment standards in the selection of cities, and focus on important factors such as the number of urban population, the level of economic development and. At the same time, the industrial foundation, special resource endowment and strategic undertaking capacity of the city are also the focus that investors need to pay attention to.
3.3 improve project ability
1 supplement the short board of capacity and build a more comprehensive urban comprehensive development and operation capacity
As the urbanization process enters the later stage, industrial introduction and systematic building of mature functional areas with high market recognition have gradually become important demands of local governments for urban development investment enterprises.
At present, most of the project participants in the area are central construction enterprises, which have strong experience and ability in construction management, but have one or more weaknesses in project planning, investment and financing management, integration of industrial resources, urban marketing, urban operation, etc.
Investors should learn from the experience of successful enterprises, strengthen the construction of urban comprehensive development and operation capacity through cooperation with external institutions or self incubation, make up for the short board of capacity, realize the deep integration of primary land development, secondary development and industrial operation in the role of urban comprehensive operator, build a mature functional area of industry city integration, and support each other with the existing plate, Enhance the added value of regional development projects and infrastructure construction.
2 give consideration to both software and hardware, enhance project planning and improve the overall trading ability of investment enterprises
In the process of regional development and implementation, it is necessary to closely combine with the national policy guidance, introduce important elements in line with the national strategy and policy support according to local conditions, and create the characteristics of the project. National policy orientation will bring new investment hot areas, and the introduction of hot investment elements into regional projects will also improve the success rate of project implementation.
3 . Do a good job in post investment process management and improve the ability to deal with changes
Winning the bid is only the beginning of cooperation. In the post investment implementation stage, improving the ability of the project company to deal with changes is the key to the successful implementation of the project.
The investor shall coordinate the overall situation of the project with the regional development strategy, and re evaluate the investment value of the project according to the changes of boundary conditions. Establish a risk control mechanism, strictly require the overall development plan of the area, track and evaluate the implementation of the project plan, and correct and adjust it in time. Track, monitor and evaluate the regional land and real estate market, and adjust the pace of investment and development in time.
3.4 strengthen enterprise brand construction
1 . Do a good job in medium and long-term enterprise brand construction and seize the opportunity in the subdivision of regional projects
With the gradual reduction of expansionary area development projects, area development projects will also be subdivided into areas. When selecting investors, local governments will pay more attention to the achievements of investors in relevant professional fields, which requires investors' unique professional ability and brand advantages.
2 . Investors develop their own advantages and professional ability to improve brand recognition
The enterprise's own ability, performance and qualification are the enterprise's competitive advantage in the investment field. The judgment of the future market trend is the premise and background for the enterprise to select the right track and stand out. The enterprise's brand strategy is the key to the rebirth during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
3.5 summary
The comprehensive development of the area should be based on the principle of compliance, market-oriented, and all partners should build a good cooperative relationship to escort the high-quality development of China's urbanization.
For the government, the following should be done:
(1) pay attention to the compliance of regional projects to avoid hidden liabilities.
(2) support the market-oriented transformation of platform companies to urban comprehensive operators.
(3) in the process of urban development, we should gradually transform from "land" as the center to "people" as the center, so as to realize the harmonious development of "people, city and industry".
(4) improve regional industrial support policies, talent introduction policies and real estate policies, and establish a good policy environment to improve the regional investment environment and attract investors.
(5) establish a top-level credit system and management system suitable for the market to improve the investment confidence of enterprises.
For investors, the following aspects should be achieved:
(1) pay attention to the regional population, GDP and other core factor indicators, pay attention to the regional land and real estate market, and select the appropriate investment area.
(2) in the selection of projects, we should change from focusing on quantity and scale to focusing on quality, pay attention to the self balancing ability of projects, reduce dependence on finance and reduce empty sources of income.
(3) pay attention to the introduction and operation of industries, and change from engineering construction enterprises to urban comprehensive operators.
(4) pay attention to the hot investment areas brought by the national policy orientation and introduce resource elements.
(5) follow the market law, control the rhythm of rolling development and ensure the healthy, stable and sustainable operation of cash flow.
(6) pay attention to the construction of enterprise professional capacity and medium and long-term brand construction.
(contributed by: Beijing Rongbang Ruiming Investment Management Co., Ltd.)
