On the afternoon of January 11, the passenger car market information joint conference (hereinafter referred to as “passenger car joint conference”) released the national passenger car market analysis report in December 2021. According to the data of the Federation of passenger cars, the retail sales of the passenger car market totaled 2014.6 million last year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, ending the negative growth for three consecutive years, mainly driven by the growth of new energy vehicles.
What impact will the decline of new energy subsidies implemented this year have on new energy vehicles? The passenger Federation said that the sales of most new energy vehicles will not be significantly affected by the decline of subsidies. At the same time, it adjusted its original expectation of 4.8 million new energy passenger vehicles this year to more than 5.5 million, and the overall sales of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million.
the auto market ended its negative growth for three consecutive years
According to the data of the Federation of passenger cars, in 2021, the retail sales of the passenger car market reached 2014.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, ending the negative growth for three consecutive years.
With regard to the prospect of the national passenger car market in January this year, the passenger Federation said that January has 21 working days, 2 days less than the previous month, and 1 working day more than January 2021. However, because the Spring Festival is on February 1, the off-season of car purchase is entered a few days ahead of the festival, so January this year is a small month of car market consumption, which is not conducive to the increase of production and sales. However, China’s passenger car industry has more abundant chip supply, which promotes the improvement of production support capacity. The mainstream models that lack some chips in the early stage but have not been put on the market are accelerated, and the supply of motor car market is further improved. At the same time, the Federation also pointed out that this year’s economic situation is increasingly complex and severe, but before the Spring Festival, it is a concentrated outbreak node for first-time buyers, and the performance of the car market is bound to be strong.
new energy vehicles become the sales person in the auto market
The end of negative growth in the auto market for three consecutive years is directly related to the rapid growth of new energy vehicles. In its analysis, the passenger Federation pointed out that among the 860000 year-on-year net increase in retail sales last year, the retail sales of traditional fuel vehicles decreased by 1.02 million, while the number of new energy vehicles increased by 1.88 million. New energy vehicles contributed 9 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of passenger vehicles in the whole year.
The reporter noted that the development of new energy vehicle market has been overwhelming last year. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.989 million last year, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%; The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is 14.8%, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. Among them, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles last month reached 475000, a year-on-year increase of 128.8%, a month on month increase of 25.4%, and China’s retail penetration rate was 22.6%. It is worth mentioning that last month, there were 14 auto companies whose wholesale sales exceeded 10000 vehicles, a significant increase over the previous period, including Byd Company Limited(002594) (93338 vehicles), Tesla China (70847 vehicles), SAIC GM Wuling (60372 vehicles), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (20926 vehicles) and other auto companies.
The passenger Federation said that the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has formed a strongly differentiated feature, realizing the partial substitution effect of new energy vehicles on the fuel vehicle market, proving the change of consumer demand through users’ market-oriented choice, and driving the vehicle market to accelerate the pace of transformation to new energy.
head independent brand gained significant increment
The year-on-year decline in retail sales of luxury cars and mainstream joint venture brands and the year-on-year growth of independent brands have been the development trend of the auto market last year. According to the data disclosed by the passenger Federation, last month, 250000 luxury cars were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; Mainstream joint venture brands retail 930000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. In terms of independent brands, 930000 vehicles were retailed in the month, a year-on-year increase of 4%; China’s retail share has reached 46.3%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 percentage points, and the annual share is 41%, a year-on-year increase of 5.6 percentage points.
The passenger Federation pointed out that the leading enterprises of independent brands performed very well and gained significant increment in the new energy market. Therefore, the brands of traditional automobile enterprises such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and SAIC passenger cars showed high growth year-on-year. The reporter learned from car companies that last year Byd Company Limited(002594) the total sales volume of passenger cars was 740131, a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, of which the annual cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger cars was 593745, a year-on-year increase of 231.6%. SAIC passenger cars sold more than 800000 vehicles last year, with a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, of which the annual sales of new energy vehicles was about 161000, with a year-on-year increase of 107%. In addition, the independent brand automobile enterprises in the head camp such as Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chery Automobile also achieved significant growth in the new energy market. For example, the sales of new energy and electrification models such as geometry a, geometry C and Dihao EV under Geely Automobile exceeded 100000 last year, with a year-on-year increase of about 47%; GAC EA, one of the “twin stars”, sold 1236600 units last year, with a year-on-year increase of 119%.
At the same time, several new Chinese car making forces in the head camp also made brilliant achievements last year. From the sales volume they announced, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai and ideal automobile delivered more than 90000 vehicles last year, forming the first camp of the new force “xiaoweili”. Among them, Xiaopeng automobile won the sales champion of the new force in 2021 with a total delivery of 98155 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 3.6 times. Followed by Weilai, a total of 91429 new cars were delivered throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 109.1%, ranking second in sales. The title of the third runner up fell on the ideal car. In the whole year, 90491 new cars were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 177.4%, which is less than 1000 compared with Weilai. The performance of the new forces of car making in the second echelon is also commendable. In particular, Nezha car ranked the head of the second echelon with a cumulative delivery of 69674 vehicles throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 362%; Weima automobile and Zero run automobile also handed over the sales results of 40000 + respectively.
the upper limit of subsidy scale this year is not locked
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. According to the notice, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles this year has declined by 30% from last year; The subsidy standard for qualified vehicles in urban public transport, road passenger transport, leasing (including online car Hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airport and public service of Party and government organs has declined by 20% from last year.
As soon as the news came out, whether the auto market will be significantly affected by the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies this year has become a focus topic in the auto industry. In this regard, the passenger Federation pointed out in its analysis that with the implementation of the decline of new energy subsidies, the price of some models will be fine tuned, and the consumption mentality will also change, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected. However, new energy vehicles continue to be popular, and there is a large backlog of pre delivery orders, so the sales volume of most new energy models will not be significantly affected by the decline.
The Federation also said that according to the newly released policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical index system will remain unchanged this year, and the subsidy scale is not locked from the original expected upper limit of 2 million vehicles, which will realize the subsidy throughout the whole year. With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of cost reduction ability, it is expected that the increment of new energy vehicles will be strong by the end of this year.
this year, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 25%
Therefore, the passenger Federation raised its expectation for the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022. It is disclosed that the passenger Federation adjusted its original expectation of 4.8 million new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 to more than 5.5 million, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach about 25%; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%.
The sales target of 6 million vehicles of the passenger Federation is much higher than the expectation of China Automobile Association that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million vehicles in 2022. Yesterday, the official wechat of China Automobile Industry Association predicted that the sales of new cars in China will reach 27.5 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 23 million, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market penetration is expected to exceed 18%.
At the same time, the passenger Federation also pointed out that the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in the fourth quarter of last year were 1.3 million. With the substantial improvement of Chinese consumers’ recognition of the new energy market and the stability of policy subsidies, it is bound to promote the large increase in the total sales of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles this year and continue to maintain a super leading position with a share of more than 50% in the world.
