As the core engine city of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, Shenzhen has no doubt about its strategic position in the business territory of real estate enterprises.
For the Shenzhen property market, 2021, which has just passed, is an extremely extraordinary year. The implementation of the new centralized land supply policy, the full implementation of the three red line supervision, and the regulation of the second-hand housing transaction reference price and loan policy issued by Shenzhen at the beginning of the year have made the Shenzhen property market, which has the significance of a national wind vane, unable to get out of the independent market.
So, in 2021, when the market is deeply consolidated, will the sales of Shenzhen real estate enterprises advance or retreat? Has the Jianghu seat changed? How about the expansion of real estate enterprises? How will mainstream real estate enterprises layout in Shenzhen market in 2022?
Equity sales: China Resources Vanke ranks among the top two in the sales list
In 2021, like the national market, the property market in Shenzhen will open high and go low.
In the first half of the year, real estate enterprises were more active in both sales and land acquisition. However, in the second half of the year, the previously sought after online red market is no longer fragrant, and there is no lack of cold and unsalable opening in the core area. Last year, 126 residential projects in Shenzhen were opened, of which only 39 were sold out.
However, even in such a market environment, from the indicator of traffic sales performance, the top 20 real estate enterprises in Shenzhen still improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, and the number of real estate enterprises with traffic sales exceeding 10 billion yuan increased to 8.
In terms of equity sales, which can better reflect the strength of real estate enterprises, the ranking of real estate enterprises has little change. Equity sales amount, also known as the sales amount attributable to the shareholders' equity of the company, is the sales amount calculated by the company according to the proportion of capital contribution, which can be said to be the real sales amount of real estate enterprises.
According to Kerui data, in the list of equity sales amount and area in Shenzhen in 2021, except for China Evergrande, Xincheng real estate and Shenzhen Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) , the ranking of individual enterprises did not rise or fall by more than two, and the market pattern was relatively stable
top 20 equity sales of Shenzhen real estate enterprises in 2021
data source: Kerui
In 2021, the cumulative equity sales of Shenzhen's top 20 real estate enterprises were RMB 212.862 billion, with a sales area of 3.1679 million square meters, and the entry thresholds were RMB 6.157 billion and 86800 square meters respectively. The top and second places in equity sales remain unchanged, namely China Resources Land and Vanke Real estate. Shenzhen railway real estate, OCT and Jingji group all rose slightly to third, sixth and eighth respectively.
Among them, China Resources Land contributed 33.243 billion yuan and 480700 square meters respectively; Vanke contributed 22.241 billion yuan and 302100 square meters respectively. Moreover, according to Kerui data, China Resources Land ranked first in the flow, trading, equity sales amount and area list of Shenzhen real estate enterprises in 2021.
In terms of a single residential project, China Resources Land alone achieved a sales amount of 19.8 billion yuan, ranking first in the list of residential projects; The sales amount of Qianhai Tianjing garden of Longguang group is 11.6 billion yuan, ranking second. China Resources City and Qianhai Tianjing garden are also two projects with sales of more than 10 billion yuan in Shenzhen in 2021
data source: Kerui
The sales amount of Wanfeng coastal city project of coast group was 9.5 billion yuan, ranking third in the sales amount list of residential projects, and won the first place in the sales area list with 165600 square meters. Shentie Yifu and Xinghe Tiandi of shentie real estate and Xinghe real estate ranked fourth and fifth in the list with sales of more than 8 billion yuan respectively.
"2021 is a big year for the supply of new houses in Shenzhen. The annual supply of new houses is about 62000 sets, an increase of 12.8% over 2020; the sales volume is about 55000 sets, an increase of 15.5% over 2020, and the supply and demand are booming." He Qianru, director of the National Research Center of Meilian property, analyzed to the reporter of the daily economic news that affected by the second-hand housing market, the de urbanization rate of the new housing market in Shenzhen has dropped from the high level at the beginning of the year, the number of subscribers has decreased, the "daily CD" has rarely appeared, the online popular area has also been ignored, and there has been serious differentiation in the new housing market.
"The overall performance of the leading real estate enterprises in 2022 is expected to be more cautious, but it is expected that some real estate enterprises will still face the dilemma of negative growth throughout the year." Kerui believes that in the current industry consolidation period, let the house return to the residential attribute, polish and upgrade more product details, which should be the focus of enterprises.
Land Storage Development: central enterprises and state-owned enterprises take 70% of the plot
In 2021, a total of 39 pieces of residential land were transferred in Shenzhen, with a transfer area of 1.55 million square meters. The large-scale supply is a rare opportunity for the urgent need to supplement the soil storage, especially for the foreign real estate enterprises entering Shenzhen for the first time.
Among them, three foreign real estate enterprises have entered Shenzhen through public bidding, auction and listing. On September 28, Zhengzhou Meisheng won the plot g10101-0329 at the intersection of Longping road and Longfeng Road, Longgang street, Longgang District, with a floor price of 11926 yuan / m2.
On May 13, Wuhan Trading and investment union China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) entered Shenzhen for the first time and won two adjacent homesteads in Kangyang group in the north of chishi Town, Shenzhen Shantou Special Cooperation Zone with a reserve price of 2.161 billion yuan, with an average transaction floor price of 5718 yuan / m2.
Compared with the past, the past two years have definitely been a big year for the supply of residential plots in the Shenzhen open market, and the transfer area is almost three times that before 2019. A large amount of supply has also constantly refreshed the list of land acquisition amount of real estate enterprises. According to the statistics of Haodi Research Institute, there are two enterprises with land acquisition rights and interests in Shenzhen exceeding 10 billion in 2021, namely Shenzhen Metro and CNOOC real estate
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data source: Haodi Research Institute
Among them, Shenzhen Metro won the double champion of land acquisition amount and area ranking with 24.18 billion yuan and 1.586 million square meters. In the second place, CNOOC real estate won the title of land acquisition in Dawan District in 2021 with 40.4 billion yuan.
Among the top 10 real estate enterprises in terms of equity land acquisition amount are Longguang, Poly Real estate, Shenye group, talent Anju group, Shenzhen Tagen Group Co.Ltd(000090) hongrongyuan, jiazhaoye and Shenzhen tefa. In terms of the number of land acquisition cases, central state-owned enterprises won more than 70% of the homestead.
In the second half of 2021, the land market in many cities across the country was cold, while the land market in Shenzhen ended smoothly. The reason is that Wu Rui, managing director of Savills Shenzhen company, said that Shenzhen's land supply contains a large proportion of commercial land planning, which is difficult to achieve fast turnover. In the current environment of tightening liquidity in the industry, real estate enterprises, especially listed real estate enterprises, are not enthusiastic about registering. The active participation of state-owned enterprises has also avoided some land auction, and demonstrated the responsibility and ballast role of state-owned enterprises in stabilizing market expectations.
It is worth mentioning that hongrongyuan, listed on the top 10 list of land acquisition amount in Shenzhen in 2021, has rarely raised cards to acquire land in the open market in recent years. Previously, it mainly used urban renewal real estate enterprises to obtain land reserves and early layout of old transformation projects, which also makes it known as the "king of real estate outside the customs". In 2021, hongrongyuan also ranked among the top 10 residential projects in Shenzhen by virtue of its large-scale old transformation project one city center sales in Longhua District.
Urban renewal: private real estate enterprises are more active
Before 2020, about 10 residential plots will be supplied annually through signboards in Shenzhen. There are few opportunities for real estate enterprises to obtain land resources from the open market, and the competition is extremely fierce. Therefore, urban renewal projects have become an important means for real estate enterprises to expand land storage.
In terms of urban renewal, Shenzhen has its typical urban characteristics, private enterprises are more active, and regional real estate enterprises deeply rooted in the local area have more advantages. However, in terms of sales, state-owned and central enterprises rank first and constantly refresh the list records, with obvious echelon effect.
According to Kerui's statistics, in the traffic sales list of urban renewal real estate enterprises in 2021, China Resources Land and Vanke Real estate, which ranked the first echelon, exceeded 20 billion yuan; China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , jiazhaoye and Xinghe real estate are located in the second echelon with a sales amount of more than 10 billion yuan. Coastal group, excellence group, hongrongyuan, qinchengda and Hengfeng real estate, which are ranked in the third echelon, have sales of more than 8 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that Hengfeng real estate, coastal group and other enterprises are deeply engaged in Shenzhen, which has the typical characteristics of regional real estate enterprises. They hardly take land in the bidding, auction and listing market, and their soil storage is mainly obtained by urban renewal.
However, from the recent market feedback, although the sales of coastal group, Hengfeng real estate and other enterprises are good, they are also caught in a quality storm. Obviously, while local real estate enterprises are making rapid progress in scale, they still need to find an effective balance between operation ability, product shaping ability and brand appeal
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data source: Kerui
