After the adjustment since December last year, the price of silicon material stopped falling and rebounded.
On January 12, the latest silicon material quotation released by the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch) showed that the silicon material price rebounded this week. The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that in fact, it is not just silicon materials. Due to the off-season of China's photovoltaic industry in the first quarter of this year, the operating rate of all links has increased, and the prices of silicon wafers and modules have also increased.
According to the data released by the silicon industry branch, the price range of China's single crystal re feeding this week was between 23000 and 242000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rebounded to 234600 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.21%; The price range of single crystal compact was between 228000 and 240000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 232500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.48%.
It is worth noting that this week, the largest transaction price difference narrowed to 12000 yuan / ton, including long orders and bulk orders. The mainstream transaction price of re feeding is 23000 to 237000 yuan / ton. New orders are signed by polysilicon enterprises, and most orders are executed after the Spring Festival.
Looking at the price trend of the industrial chain in 2021, it can be seen that the middle of last year experienced soaring prices and sharp differentiation in the growth of various links. The price growth of upstream silicon materials and silicon chips was significantly higher than that of midstream battery chips and components.
According to the statistics released by the silicon industry branch and pvinfolink, in 2021, the average price of monocrystalline silicon increased by more than 210% compared with the base price at the beginning of the year, the average price of monocrystalline silicon increased by more than 40%, the maximum increase of cells and modules was about 20%, and the price of photovoltaic glass decreased by nearly 50% during the year.
key nodes around the Spring Festival
In the last month, the operating rate of the middle and lower reaches of China's photovoltaic industry chain has rebounded. According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, since January this year, the overall construction of components has increased compared with December last year, which is about 70%. In order to meet the growth of downstream demand, the operating rate of silicon wafers and battery wafers has also been increased to a corresponding level.
It is undeniable that the decline in industrial chain prices since December last year has boosted the downstream operating rate. Stimulated by leading enterprises taking the lead in price reduction, the price center of the industrial chain moves down, which is good for the terminal. For example, the downstream enterprise Shanghai Nenghui Technology Co.Ltd(301046) made it clear in response to investors on the interactive platform that the price reduction of silicon wafers is good for the company.
Since 2021, due to the rising price of the industrial chain, the profit distribution of the upstream, middle and downstream of the photovoltaic industry has been uneven - as a whole, the upstream has reaped a lot and the middle and downstream links are "tight".
On January 6 this year, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) announced the announcement of pre increase of performance in 2021. According to the preliminary calculation of the company's financial department, it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will increase by 4.392-4.892 billion yuan in 2021 compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 122-136%.
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) the high growth of net profit last year was largely due to the sharp rise in the price of silicon material under the background of silicon material shortage. In the performance pre increase announcement, the company pointed out that benefiting from the growth of downstream demand, the supply of high-purity crystalline silicon products was in short supply, the market price increased significantly year-on-year, the company's high-purity crystalline silicon capacity continued to operate at full capacity, the production and sales volume increased year-on-year, various production indicators were further optimized, and the profit realized a significant increase.
The new power of silicon wafer Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) also increased significantly.
On January 12, the company released a performance forecast that it was expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 1.63 billion yuan to 1.8 billion yuan last year, with a year-on-year increase of 207% to 239%. The company said, "in 2021, the company expanded the scale of monocrystalline silicon business as planned, the production capacity continued to improve, and maintained a good capacity utilization rate and production and marketing rate. The sales scale of monocrystalline silicon business continued to expand, which increased the sales revenue of the company and promoted the performance of the company to rise steadily."
However, for 2022, the most urgent problem to be solved is whether the manufacturers in the middle and downstream links can continue to withstand the pressure of the rise in upstream prices last year and finally realize the downward transmission of the profitability of the industrial chain.
From the current feedback of the market, the operating rate of manufacturers in all links has increased. In this regard, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) the research report released in January this year believes that "the demand for terminal installation is accelerating and the industry ushers in a demand inflection point."
According to the analysis of the silicon material price rise, the silicon industry branch believes that the reason that can not be ignored is that it is close to the Spring Festival. In order to avoid the Limited Logistics and transportation during the holidays, which will affect the supply of relatively strong demand, the signing of this week also includes some hoarding demand. "It is expected that the price of silicon material will continue to rise steadily and slightly before the Spring Festival."
However, this also means that before and after the Spring Festival, the operating rate indicators of all links may be restrained from each other, and this period may be an important node for the adjustment of supply-demand relationship.
the downstream has "pressure resistance" to the price rise
At the annual conference of China's photovoltaic industry held in mid-2021, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that due to the lag in the issuance of indicators and rising prices, the forecast of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021 was adjusted from 55 to 65gw to 45 to 55gw.
However, when December was coming to an end, there was a "reversal" in the industry: some industry media reported that from the evening of December 1 to 30, the grid connected capacity of China's ground power stations had exceeded 16.8gw; If we add the rush of industrial, commercial and household distribution in December, the new installed capacity in December is likely to exceed 25gw. This indicates that the new installed capacity of PV in China will reach 60GW in 2021.
"I don\'t think the price of silicon material must be reduced to the end, and the demand will be released." At the 22nd UBS Greater China seminar held recently, Yan Yishu, a photovoltaic and renewable energy analyst at UBS Securities, told 21st Century Business Herald and other media that downstream demand was not completely restrained by the rise in upstream prices. "China's policies and the economy of photovoltaic itself are driving (demand)."
However, the decline of upstream prices is still a more obvious factor to boost the demand of terminals. Yan Yishu predicts that the price of silicon material will be reduced by 100 yuan per kilogram, the price of components per watt will be reduced by 0.3 yuan, and the IRR (internal rate of return) of terminal power station will increase by 1.2% to 1.5%.
Considering the factors of hoarding materials during the Spring Festival, the rise in silicon material prices this week is special. In fact, this week, due to the influence of Spring Festival stock, the price of silicon wafers also increased.
According to the data provided by the silicon industry branch, M6 monocrystalline silicon wafer (166mm / 165) this week μ m) The price range was 4.95 to 5 yuan / piece, and the average transaction price rose to 4.97 yuan / piece, with a weekly increase of 0.4%; M10 monocrystalline silicon wafer (182 mm / 165 mm) μ m) The price range was 5.85 to 6 yuan / piece, and the average transaction price was increased to 5.87 yuan / piece, with a week-on-week increase of 2.09%. However, G12 monocrystalline silicon wafer (210mm / 160 μ m) The price range fell to 7.7 to 7.80 yuan / piece, and the average transaction price fell to 7.72 yuan / piece, down 7.77% on a weekly basis.
"From the perspective of demand, there is a year-end stock of silicon wafers, the demand of battery factories has improved slightly, and the shipment of silicon wafers has increased slightly compared with last week.
”The silicon branch predicts that the current expectation is optimistic in the first quarter. At present, there are profits in all links, and the market is expected to turn into a trend of short supply. Therefore, it is expected that the price of silicon wafer is expected to increase slightly in the short term.
After the upstream price rebounded, there was another discussion about whether the silicon material price could fall sharply this year.
The price change is always controlled by the relationship between supply and demand. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch and in combination with the production expansion rhythm of major manufacturers, it is estimated that the nominal capacity of global Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) silicon material will reach about 650000 tons (including granular silicon) by the end of 2021. It is expected that the release progress of industrial capacity will be significantly accelerated in 2022. The nominal capacity may reach about 1.13 million tons at the end of the year, and the annual effective capacity will reach about 780000 tons, And the effective capacity growth may mainly focus on the second half of 2022.
In the short term, the tight balance of silicon material has not improved with the large-scale capacity expansion. The fundamental problem is that the release of silicon material is less than expected.
According to Pang Junwen, chief analyst of new energy at Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities Research Institute, China plans to add about 193000 tons of polysilicon capacity in 2021, and the actual contribution is only about 60000 tons. It is estimated that China's polysilicon capacity will be about 48 / 660000 tons and the annual import volume will be about 100000 tons from 2021 to 2022. He believes that, on the whole, the supply and demand of silicon materials will maintain a tight balance from 2021 to 2022.
