How long can the lithium battery sector with cooking oil and flowers smile?
On April 29, the lithium battery sector continued to strengthen, Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) limit, Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) rose 8.89%, and Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) rose 6.55%. Recently, the price of the first lithium concentrate auction in 2022 conducted by Australian lithium miner Pilbara hit a new high again, up 140% compared with half a year ago.
Since the correction of the share price of lithium battery sector in September last year, the market value of Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) has fallen from the peak of nearly 200 billion, almost halving. However, Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) net profit has soared by 1399626%. The shell finance reporter of Beijing News combed the lithium concept stocks and found that despite the ups and downs of share prices, nearly 80% of lithium mining enterprises still had a bumper harvest in the first quarter of 2022, with positive growth in net profit, of which the net profit of 12 enterprises increased by more than 100%.
However, with the high price of lithium ore, the market has been deadlocked. Longzhong information said that the downstream demand has been weak recently, which is very exclusive of the current high price in the market. Most upstream enterprises have no intention to sell at low price, and their willingness to support the price is obvious. The market stalemate and wait-and-see atmosphere has increased.
lithium ore price rises frequently: new energy vehicles “can’t afford it”
Six months later, Pilbara, an Australian lithium miner, launched the first lithium concentrate auction in 2022 on April 27 Beijing time. As one of the important wind vanes of lithium ore price, this auction attracted attention. Finally, the auction totaled 5000 tons, and the auction transaction price was US $5650 / ton. According to the calculation of Longzhong information, the cost of battery grade lithium carbonate corresponding to this auction price will exceed 373800 yuan / ton.
As early as September 14, 2021, the price of lithium ore continued to rise. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 156300 yuan / ton; The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide is 148700 yuan / ton.
By October 2021, Pilbara held a lithium ore auction. At that time, the transaction price of Pilbara auction was US $2350 / ton Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) at that time, according to this price, the cost of producing and processing a ton of lithium carbonate was about 165000 yuan / ton.
Obviously, the price of lithium ore is lower than the price of lithium concentrate auctioned in October, and the cost of producing lithium salt. At that time, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) proposed that the global lithium concentrate supply constraints were obvious in 2022, and it was difficult to guess the high price of lithium ore and lithium salt.
Since then, lithium prices have continued to rise. According to the Research Report of Cinda securities, the price of lithium remained at about 90000 yuan / ton in the first half of 2021 and entered the third quarter. With the new energy vehicles entering the peak consumption season, the price of lithium started the second wave of accelerated rise, doubled again and reached a record high of more than 180000 yuan / ton. By the fourth quarter, the price of lithium operated stably at 19 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 yuan / ton, and started the third round of accelerated rise at the end of November.
Lithium battery prices continue to rise, and downstream new energy vehicle enterprises have raised prices one after another.
Since January 2022, new energy vehicle enterprises have frequently announced price increases: the price of Jixing 2 has increased by 5000 yuan, the price of geometric EX3 has increased by 7000 yuan, the price of Zero run T03 and jikrypton 001 have increased by 8000 yuan, the price of Nezha car has increased by 20005000 yuan, and the price of Euler good cat has increased by 12000 yuan.
In addition, since March 10, some Tesla models have increased by 30000 in five days. On March 15, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced a series of price increases.
“Black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit”, Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, claimed that although Euler brand has the advantages of industrial chain behind it, this fashionable and people-friendly car still brought huge losses to the company. Take black cat as an example. After the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022, Euler black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit. Under cost pressure, black cat suspended sales.
A number of industry insiders analyzed to shell finance reporters that in the new energy vehicle industry chain, the prices of raw materials such as lithium, the main material of power batteries and nickel, the main material of parts, are rising sharply. Tesla salesperson also said in March this year that the price rise of new energy vehicles is an inevitable trend. The price rise of lithium, nickel and other raw materials may last for half a year to a year, and the possibility of Tesla‘s further price reduction in the last half year is very low.
As of April 2022, the price of lithium carbonate has kept breaking new highs, reaching 517000 yuan / ton. On April 27, the auction price of lithium reached a new high, and increased by 140.42% compared with half a year ago.
A 10 more times
The lithium battery industry chain above the tuyere is divided into upstream, midstream and downstream. Among them, the upstream is the raw material mining, production and processing enterprises, including Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) and other companies, that is, the “lithium company” in the concept stock.
Midstream enterprises are mainly parts and lithium battery manufacturers, including “LiMao” Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) , and Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc.
As for downstream enterprises, they are mainly vehicle enterprises using lithium products, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , etc. In the whole industrial chain, there are also vehicle enterprises that want to enter the midstream and upstream. The reporter of shell finance and economics noted that Byd Company Limited(002594) will continue to cooperate with lithium mining enterprises to obtain a more stable supply of goods.
In a shares, lithium ore concept stocks are very different from lithium battery concept stocks, with only 19 companies in the former and 262 companies in the latter. As of April 29, the top five lithium concept stocks in terms of market value were Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) . In addition, the concept shares also include Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc. According to the reporter of shell finance, from the perspective of lithium battery concept stocks, the top five in market value include Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc.
Whether in terms of operating revenue growth rate or net profit growth rate, lithium concept stocks achieved a bumper harvest in the first quarter of 2022.
Among the 19 concept stocks, 15 have positive growth in operating income, accounting for 78.94%. Ten of them increased by more than 100%, accounting for 52.63%. The top three increases in operating revenue were Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , reaching 399.02%, 339.46% and 233.91% respectively.
Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) in the first quarterly report, the company said that in the first quarter of 2022, due to the significant growth in the market demand for new energy and new materials, the company’s main products lithium salt, cesium salt and cesium formate rental and sales business had a good production and operation. The newly built 25000 ton battery grade lithium hydroxide and battery grade lithium carbonate production line of the company reached production capacity in November 2021, and the reconstruction and expansion of 6000 ton lithium fluoride production line of the company was completed. The release of new capacity and the rise in the price of lithium salt products have significantly improved the profitability of the company year-on-year.
The reporter of shell finance and economics noted that among the 19 concept stocks, the net profit growth rate is higher, and the net profit of 15 companies is growing, of which 12 have a growth rate of more than 100%. Among the top five, Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) net profit increased by 1399626%, Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(002667) increased by 317286%, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) increased by 121002%, Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) increased by 848.73%, and Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) increased by 809.81%.
Regarding the growth rate of Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , the company reported in the first quarter that due to the impact of macro policies and increased market demand, the prosperity of the new energy industry continued to improve, the prices of upstream materials and products in the lithium battery industry continued to rise sharply, the demand for lithium battery materials and equipment continued to increase, and the operating revenue and profit of the company’s lithium concentrate, lithium salt and lithium battery equipment increased significantly. The associated enterprises operating lithium salt business made substantial profits, and the investment income recognized by the company increased significantly.
Ranked sixth to tenth in the performance ranking, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) increased by 640.51%, Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) increased by 557.72%, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) increased by 340.91%, Byd Company Limited(002594) increased by 240.59%, Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) increased by 143.88%.
Well known lithium enterprise Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) also pointed out in the first quarterly report that the company’s profit growth was mainly due to the rise in the price and sales of lithium salt products in the current period.
Among the rising voices, the five enterprises that earned the most were Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , with net profits of 6.124 billion yuan, 3.525 billion yuan, 3.497 billion yuan, 1.022 billion yuan and 808 million yuan respectively.
In terms of operating revenue, the largest recorded is Byd Company Limited(002594) , with an operating revenue of 66.825 billion yuan Byd Company Limited(002594) becoming a lithium concept stock is inseparable from the recent layout.
On March 22 this year, Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) released the plan for non-public offering of A-Shares in 2022. It plans to increase no less than 46.522 million shares and no more than 69.783 million shares at the issue price of 42.99 yuan / share. The total amount of funds to be raised is no more than 3 billion yuan. All the net funds raised after deducting the issuance expenses will be used to supplement working capital and repay debts. And Byd Company Limited(002594) has become the strategic investor of Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
The supplier shall be included in the list of long-term strategic suppliers under the long-term cooperation agreement and priority suppliers according to the long-term cooperation agreement and supplier shall be included in the strategic cooperation list and 240 supplier .
As early as January this year, Byd Company Limited(002594) wanted to enter the lithium mining project in Chile, involving 80000 tons of metal lithium production quota, but the Chilean court then suspended the project.
Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) market value nearly halved “high price” market will still play
The lithium battery sector continues to be hot. The reporter of shell finance and economics noted that from April 30, 2021 to April 29, 2022, the share prices of many listed companies doubled, and the former right recovery range rose or fell by more than 100%, including Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , which rose 227.26%. In addition, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) rose 204.95%, Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) rose 169.73%, and Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) rose 124.97%.
It is worth mentioning that at the end of August 2021, the lithium battery sector set off a wave of price limit, but in September, the lithium battery sector peaked. Since then, there has been continuous adjustment, and the share price has fallen endlessly. The share price of many listed companies has been halved so far.
Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) at the beginning of 2021, the share price was only about 30 yuan. With the continuous growth of lithium ore price, the share price of the company also continued to soar. By August 27, 2021, the closing price was 133.22 yuan, and the market value reached a new high of nearly 200 billion yuan. However, after the correction of the sector, the glory of Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) share price was no longer. As of the closing on April 29, the share price was only 76.43 yuan and the market value was 112.9 billion yuan.
Judging from the rise and fall of the resumption range from April 30, 2021 to April 29, 2022, the high opens and the low goes, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) this year’s share price rose by 61.41%.
Can the rise in lithium prices continue? In this regard, Cinda securities expects that the overall lithium price will remain high in the next few years, the supply and demand of lithium is expected to remain in a tight balance, and the industrial chain will maintain a low inventory level for a long time. Assuming that the price of lithium carbonate from 2022 to 2024 is 400000 yuan / ton, 350000 yuan / ton and 300000 yuan / ton respectively, and the price of lithium concentrate is 5000 dollars / ton, 4500 dollars / ton and 4000 dollars / ton respectively, considering the self-sufficiency rate of lithium ore of the company, the cost of lithium carbonate is 236000 yuan / ton, 214000 yuan / ton and 175000 yuan / ton respectively.
The high price of lithium ore has led to a stalemate in the market. Longzhong information said that the recent weak downstream demand has greatly excluded the current high price in the market. Traders have reduced the promotion. The market trade of low-cost battery grade lithium carbonate is between 420000 yuan / ton and 430000 yuan / ton. Affected by capital pressure, the price of individual production enterprises has decreased significantly. Most enterprises are unwilling to sell at a low price, have an obvious willingness to support the price, and the market stalemate and wait-and-see atmosphere has increased.
According to Longzhong information, Pilbara’s auction price will undoubtedly inject a strong reassurance into the market, which is limited by the impact of goods volume. Although the auction price has little guiding significance for the overall market, it will indeed boost the market sentiment atmosphere. For lithium salt enterprises, the auction price has new positive support, the game time between the two sides will be prolonged, the confidence of enterprises to support the price will be strengthened, and the short-term price will be stable or the decline will slow down. The auction is more about the market forecast in September and October.
