Investment advice
High prosperity and strong certainty of performance growth: according to the data of the previous three quarters, the performance growth rate of the whole industry was + 7%, and the total growth rate of listed securities companies was + 23%. The third quarter of last year was a high base, but the fourth quarter was a low base due to the impact of impairment. Combined with the high outlook of the capital market since the fourth quarter of this year, The annual performance of securities companies increased on the high base last year, with strong certainty. Considering the promotion of the comprehensive registration system reform and the general trend of wealth management, we have a positive outlook for next year, the overall prosperity of the industry is expected to maintain an upward trend, and the annual net profit is expected to achieve a positive growth of more than 15% next year.
In the short and medium term, the expected easing of liquidity resonates with the policy dividend, and the Spring Festival agitation pays attention to the fund's "good start": considering the great downward pressure on the economy, the recovery of the epidemic outside China, the approaching debt repayment of real estate enterprises and other factors, the monetary policy will be relatively loose from the end of the year to the beginning of next year, and further easing will not be ruled out. In addition, favorable policies have been implemented one after another, such as the promotion of the reform of the comprehensive registration system, the pilot of account management optimization, the liberalization of the lending of insurance capital securities, and so on. In addition, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the new issuance market of public funds has significantly warmed up to a higher level. Judging from the issuance plans disclosed at present, many star fund managers launched heavy products in January 2022, and the "good start" of public funds is worth looking forward to. Under the dual effects of expected improvement of liquidity and policy dividends, the valuation of securities companies is expected to increase.
In the long run, the proportion of wealth management business is expected to further improve and enhance the valuation center. Since this year, the growth rate of the brokerage sector is still negative, at - 4.4%, and the overall valuation is about 1.7 times, which is 58% in the past five years. However, the overall prosperity has been the highest level in the past few years, and the repair of the deviation between the sector valuation and the fundamentals has not been completed. In the short and medium term, with the help of liquidity and favorable policies, the upward momentum of the plate is sufficient and has a safe boundary. For next year, the household savings structure will flow to the equity market, and the increase in the proportion of wealth management as the core business of asset light will reshape the valuation system of securities companies.
Recommended stocks:
Recommend wealth management main line securities companies such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and focus on Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) h and China stock market news
Risk warning: epidemic prevention and control is not as expected; The economic recovery is lower than expected; Policy change risk
Investment advice
The asset side and liability side of insurance companies were under pressure in the first quarter, focusing on the interim report window. Considering the delayed start, insufficient manpower and stricter supervision, insurance company NBV is expected to decline by 25% in the first quarter. Monetary policy is still expected to be stable in the short term, long-term interest rates remain volatile, and real estate enterprises' credit risk is still suppressed for asset side concerns in the first half of the year. 2、 In the third quarter, it is expected that the low-level layout can be started with the decline of the base and the acceleration of the transformation of insurance enterprises. For the second half of the year, focus on the recovery of new orders of guaranteed products and be optimistic about the valuation and repair of high-quality leading insurance companies.
Core view:
From the perspective of industry fundamentals: considering that the manpower fell by more than 30% compared with the beginning of the year, the pressure for a good start in the short term is prominent, and the NBV growth rate of various insurance companies is about - 25%. In addition, the loose short-term monetary policy suppressed the improvement of long-term interest rates, and the credit risk of real estate enterprises in the first quarter was still relatively large. Therefore, in the first half of the year, it was optimistic about the recovery of the growth rate of new orders of overall guaranteed products and the release of reform dividends of leading insurance enterprises.
Recommended stocks: Deepening the reform of life insurance, accelerating the transformation of agents and alleviating the credit risk of real estate ( Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ); The marginal improvement on the liability side is obvious, the effectiveness of the long haul action is expected to promote team optimization, and the valuation is at a historical low ( China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) ); It is suggested to pay attention to AIA, benefiting from the opening-up of insurance companies, the accelerated expansion of the Chinese market and the marginal improvement of overseas epidemic.
Risk tips: the epidemic prevention and control is less than expected, the recovery of new orders is less than expected, and the risk of policy change
Risk tips
Macro risk: macroeconomic downturn will have a negative impact on the performance of listed companies;
Market risk: the sharp fluctuation of market price will have a negative impact on the investment business of listed companies;
Policy risk: the implementation of relevant new policies may restrict the development of some existing businesses of listed companies;
Credit risk: listed companies may face events such as default;
Liquidity risk: listed companies may face liquidity problems;
Business risk: the market competition is fierce, and the performance of listed companies may decline due to poor management.
