In December, social finance increased by 650.8 billion yuan year-on-year in a single month, although it increased by 2.37 trillion yuan in a single month, slightly less than the 2.43 trillion yuan predicted by wind statistics. However, the growth rate of social finance continued to rise after ushering in a substantive inflection point in November. At the end of December, the stock increased by 10.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. Government bonds and short-term corporate loans significantly supported the year-on-year growth of social finance in December.
The loan performance was weak, and the growth of residents’ medium and long-term loans slowed down
RMB loans of social finance caliber increased by 1.03 trillion yuan in a single month, which is also lower than the predicted average value of 1.24 trillion yuan of wind statistics. A decrease of 111.2 billion yuan year-on-year in a single month. The stock of RMB loans increased by 11.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in growth was mainly affected by the slowdown in the growth of medium and long-term loans.
Loans to households decreased by 191.9 billion yuan year-on-year, including 98.5 billion yuan in short-term loans and 83.4 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans. Medium and long-term loans have changed from more year-on-year growth in February to less year-on-year growth, which reflects the slow growth of commercial housing sales. After the relaxation of the resident loan line in October and November, the bank basically digested the backlog of applications. However, the lack of new items has dragged down the growth performance of residents’ medium and long-term loans. We expect that the release of personal housing loans will be accelerated again in the first quarter under the stimulus policy.
The medium and long-term loans of enterprises continued the weak performance in November, with a year-on-year decrease of 210.7 billion yuan. In fact, it is difficult for enterprise loans to form a significant pull on social finance at the end of the year, which is mainly due to the slowdown in the promotion of infrastructure at the end of the year, fewer new projects and insufficient demand for satisfactory loans faced by enterprises. But at the same time, the people’s Bank of China encourages banks to increase credit, which leads to redundancy in bank credit lines. Therefore, it can be seen that the short-term loans and bill financing of enterprises increased by 278.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and the phenomenon of “scale offset” was obvious at the end of the year.
The growth rate of social finance is supported by government bonds, and off balance sheet financing continues to be compressed
In December, government bonds were issued, and the monthly net financing reached 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 459.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the most important contribution to the year-on-year increase of social finance. In addition, off balance sheet financing continued to be compressed, with a total decrease of 641.4 billion yuan in trust loans + entrusted loans + undiscounted bank acceptance bills in the current month, a year-on-year decrease of 98.1 billion yuan.
Wide credit is in the ascendant
In the first quarter of this year, the financial “front” superimposed the credit volume, and the credit expansion was in the ascendant. At present, we don\’t need to focus on the synchronous improvement of aggregate and structure, but should pay more attention to the leading signal of policy. In December, the growth rate of social finance still maintained upward under the reduction of new projects at the end of the year and the weakening of residents\’ demand for medium and long-term loans. The demand for policy wide credit is relatively strong, and the effect of credit expansion in the first quarter can be further expected. More importantly, the wide credit environment is not only conducive to the expansion of bank scale, but also conducive to the development of bank non interest business and the resolution of credit risk. At present, the valuation of the banking sector is picking up at the bottom, and there is considerable room for repair. Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) are recommended.
Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; The introduction of policies is not as expected; Credit risk fluctuation
