Key investment points:
The wholesale price of high-end liquor continued to fall, and the cost pressure of mass products slowed down
According to December 2021 data, the price of high-end Baijiu has dropped, and the price of raw materials has eased. Among them, Moutai 500ML (53) (500ML) high-end liquor Baijiu price after the rally is limited, the price before the Spring Festival this year, the highest point of 3300 yuan, eleven pre holiday prices have repeatedly reached 3880 yuan after the fall, the recent cancellation of the sales policy of the box, the price of a larger decline, the original box a further decline in the price, the current price of 3300 yuan. There was no obvious fluctuation in beer and wine prices. As of November, the cumulative beer production decreased slightly year-on-year in 2019. In terms of cost environment, the price of pork is close to the relative bottom, the short-term price has rebounded, the price of fresh milk continues to fall slightly month on month, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuates at a high level, and the price of packaging materials begins to loosen. At present, the cost environment is still facing some pressure, but it has passed the most difficult stage, and all fine molecular categories have begun to respond by adjusting product structure and raising prices.
Investment advice
Last month, the food and beverage sector warmed up under the expectation of price increase, and the sector rose as a whole. However, due to the failure of expectation, there has been a significant adjustment in the near future. From a fundamental point of view, the industry has not changed substantially, but the sector has been repeatedly disturbed by emotions. We believe that it is mainly related to higher valuation. At the current time point, it is recommended to select stocks with reasonable valuation and growth attributes. From monthly data, we think that Baijiu is still in operation cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control. And the fine products of public products have already opened the price raising cycle. We need to pay close attention to the market acceptance after the price increase. On the plate side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, with the opening of the price increase cycle, the upstream cost pressure may ease in the second half of the year. At present, the beer sector still has a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention. To sum up, we give the industry a “optimistic” investment rating and continue to recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369), Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (600887).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, major food safety risks, and epidemic prevention and control are less than expected.
