Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing throughout the year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, the financial data are gradually improving, and the social finance belt at the beginning of the year may usher in a “good start”, which still supports and boosts the market. However, the market contraction rebounded yesterday, and the index may still be repeated. Under the overall good trend, the spring market can still be configured on bargain hunting.
In the morning, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, and then ushered in a diving. After the record index turned green, the decline rapidly expanded to 1%. In terms of plate, the prefabricated vegetable plate is still strong, the banking plate continues to rise, the covid-19 detection plate is stronger, and the traditional Chinese medicine stocks are weaker. On the whole, the market enthusiasm is not high, individual stocks have mixed ups and downs, and the profit-making effect is poor. In terms of sectors, the coal sector led the rise, with petroleum and petrochemical, banking, computers and non bank finance leading the rise, while building materials, light industry manufacturing, medicine and biology fell.
Yesterday, Shanghai Securities News reported: “The central bank has released financial statistics for 2021. Over the past year, the market liquidity has remained reasonably abundant, the growth rate of M2 and social finance has changed from decline to rise, and the scale of new RMB loans throughout the year has exceeded that of the previous year, which has played a positive role in supporting market players to restore and maintain economic operation within a reasonable range. Many analysts have given positive expectations for the financial data at the beginning of this year.” In fact, the improvement of financial data also indicates the recovery of the economy and has a positive impact on the market, which provides some support for the market. Therefore, despite the adjustment, under the condition of good basic orientation and stable liquidity, the market has little downward space, and the overall trend will remain good.
It is worth noting that today, the banking industry took the lead in announcing its performance. As of this morning, five listed banks in Shanghai and Shenzhen have disclosed their performance express. These banks have performed well in indicators such as net profit growth and asset quality, while bank stocks have outperformed the index as a whole since the end of last year; Coincidentally, yesterday, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released the announcement of 2021 annual performance express. The performance is outstanding, and in addition to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) performance is also very satisfactory. Therefore, the securities sector also ushered in an upward trend in the morning.
In addition to banks and securities companies, the performance forecast was released at Petrochina Company Limited(601857) last night. It is expected that the net profit in 2021 will increase by 71 billion yuan to 75 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 374% – 395%; The annual net profit after deducting non profits will increase by 110 billion yuan to 120 billion yuan year-on-year, so as to turn losses into profits. The above two indicators have reached a new high in the past seven years. Since the beginning of the year, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) has also risen by more than 12% continuously, far outperforming the index and killing most subject stocks.
Therefore, the overall improvement of the macro level has ushered in support for the market. With the start of the monetary easing cycle, the expectation of liquidity easing is also gradually strengthened. Superimposed with the expectation of macro policy release in the first quarter, we are still optimistic about the current spring market. In the process of index adjustment, it is still a good time to bargain hunting.
