A shares and Hong Kong stocks jointly staged a “great counterattack”!
On April 29, as of the closing, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 304706 points, up 2.41%; Gem index reported 231914 points, up 4.11%; Shenzhen composite index reported 1102144 points, up 3.69%; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 reported 401624 points, up 2.43%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 4.01%, recovering 21000 points; Hang Seng technology index rose 9.96%;
Market confidence is back!
In terms of A-share sector, media, computer, national defense and military industry, household appliances, automobiles and other sectors led the increase.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Internet technology stocks led the gains, while retail, health care, automobile, food and other sectors led the gains.
So, why did A-Shares and Hong Kong shares rise collectively today? How to interpret the market after the festival and whether the great counterattack can be sustained? Which sectors can be laid out? The reporter of China Fund News interviewed more than 20 fund companies, including Fuguo, harvest, China Europe, China Merchants, Boshi, Nanfang, Huaxia, Huabao, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Cathay Pacific, Huatai Bairui, YONGYING, Nord, Guohai Franklin, HSBC Jinxin, Puyin AXA, CITIC Prudential, Western Lide, Debang, xingyin and Shanghai Bank.
Politburo meeting sets the tone positively
market confidence boosted
Today’s meeting gave a clear signal to the positive sentiment of A-share investors, which further boosted the overall situation of the regional fund market.
Boshi Fund said that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held today made important decisions and arrangements on the current epidemic prevention and control policies, macro policies, real estate, platform economy and capital market, stressed the need to accelerate the implementation of the determined policies, raise the stability of the capital market to a new level, release positive signals and boost market sentiment; Superimposed on the sharp rise of U.S. stocks overnight yesterday, the rising external sentiment was transmitted to a shares, and A-Shares rose sharply again today.
Recently, there have been favorable policies, but the trading volume of the A-share market has not been effectively enlarged. Since April, the market turnover has been less than trillion yuan, and there is a trend of gradual shrinkage, indicating that the fund wait-and-see attitude is obvious and the market confidence is slightly insufficient. At present, the epidemic situation in East China is gradually improving, and the epidemic situation in Beijing is better than previously expected. After this round of epidemic, the recovery of consumption, the normal operation of production and logistics will be conducive to the repair of the economy, the downward pressure on the economy may be alleviated, and it will also be conducive to the recovery of confidence in the A-share market.
Wells Fargo Fund believes that the Politburo meeting will further boost confidence, build consensus, focus on eliminating concerns and stabilizing expectations after the financial and Economic Commission meeting. First of all, the meeting made clear the requirements of “epidemic prevention, economic stability and safe development” to effectively gather consensus.
For the “internal difficulties” of the macroeconomic downturn worried by the market, the meeting reiterated that “strive to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range”, which strengthened the market’s confidence in the GDP growth rate of 5.5% this year.
Specifically, infrastructure construction proposes to “comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction”, consumption proposes to “give play to the traction and driving role of consumption on the economic cycle”, real estate proposes to “support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions”, and expounds the three economic engines of economic infrastructure, consumption and real estate, so as to further tell the market “how to stabilize the economy”.
For the recent fluctuations in the capital market, the meeting stressed that “we should respond to market concerns in a timely manner and maintain the smooth operation of the capital market”, indicating that the current irrational decline in the market has attracted high-level attention, and the expectation of policy “underpinning” has risen.
On the whole, the Politburo meeting focused on responding to the market’s macro concerns. It not only reiterated the objectives, but also clarified the methods, which fundamentally boosted confidence and stabilized expectations. The “market bottom” of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares may be gradually confirmed.
The China EU Fund said that the Politburo meeting analyzed China’s current economic situation from a macro perspective and pointed out the next action direction for economic development. Under the current “complex situation of superposition of Centennial changes and century epidemics”, it helped to boost market confidence, clarify the rights and obligations of various market players, and was conducive to the final completion of this year’s macroeconomic objectives and tasks;
The Politburo meeting proposed to “respond to market concerns in a timely manner”, focusing on the real estate market, capital market and platform economy, echoing the hot issues to be solved by investors at present, and clearly pointed out that “actively introduce long-term investors and maintain the smooth operation of the capital market”. This laid a good foundation for the introduction of specific policies and measures in the next stage. At the same time, it was clearly proposed to support the “standardized and healthy development” of the platform economy. As the Hong Kong market includes China’s major platform listed companies, relevant companies benefited from the upcoming policies, and the positive expectations rose one after another.
Harvest Fund said that the high-level meeting released a number of heavy benefits, which was conducive to the recovery of market confidence. 1. Favorable policies:
1) strive to achieve the expected economic objectives, and there are still stable growth policy expectations in the follow-up; 2) Give play to the pulling effect of consumption on the economic cycle (directly favorable to optional consumption sectors such as automobiles and household appliances); 3) Energy supply and price stability (production is better than double carbon, which is good for the manufacturing industry, especially small and micro enterprises in the industry); 4) In terms of real estate, support local urban policies, support rigidity and improve demand, and optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds (support the current state of urban policies, which remains stable as a whole); 5) In terms of the Internet, promote the development of the platform economy and complete the special rectification of the platform economy (Internet industry policies or inflection points) 6) stabilize the basic market of foreign trade and foreign capital (since the epidemic, the outflow of foreign capital and the decline of foreign trade orders, and quickly introduce policies to stabilize the external environment) 7) from “fully implement the stock issuance registration system” to “steadily promote the reform of the stock issuance registration system” (the IPO speed may slow down, which is good for the market under the current stock game);
Huaxia Fund believes that the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting this morning to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The policy direction expected by the market is clear, the confidence in steady growth is enhanced, and the improvement of risk appetite promotes the stock index to accelerate the upward trend in the afternoon, and the Internet, semiconductors, education, games, military industry, household appliances, securities companies, auto parts and other industries have strengthened significantly.
In terms of macro growth, it is proposed to strengthen macro policy regulation, solidly stabilize the economy, strive to achieve the expected goal of economic and social development throughout the year, and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range. In terms of policy, it is required to implement the determined policies as soon as possible, including “tax reduction and fee reduction”, “making good use of various monetary policy tools”, “planning incremental policy tools”, etc. The signal of steady growth is clear and the confidence is strong. The follow-up policies will be stepped up, and the momentum of economic growth is expected to gradually increase in May and June.
The meeting mentioned the positioning of “housing without speculation”, but in view of the current real estate situation, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, especially rigid and improved housing demand, and the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds is expected to be optimized; In terms of platform economy, it is proposed to promote the healthy development of platform economy and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of platform economy; For the capital market, it is required to respond to market concerns in a timely manner, steadily promote the reform of the stock issuance registration system, actively introduce long-term investors, and maintain the smooth operation of the capital market.
The positive statements in key areas such as real estate, platform economy and capital market have effectively improved the market risk appetite and further clarified the policy bottom.
China Merchants Fund said that the core of the rebound in the A-share market stems from the meeting of the Political Bureau to boost market confidence: 1) clarify the “bottom line thinking”, and make it clear that the epidemic should be prevented, the economy should be stable and development should be safe. Prevent all kinds of “black swan” and “grey rhinoceros” incidents. 2) Instead of proposing “prudent monetary policy”, it is expected to strengthen “prudent monetary policy” and “strengthen monetary policy”. 3) The direction of strict supervision in the early stage such as real estate and platform economy has been relaxed, the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing has been optimized, and the risk of thunderstorm of real estate companies is expected to be reduced. The changes of the above factors have effectively boosted market confidence and significantly rebounded the growth sector suppressed by risk appetite in the early stage.
Qianhai open source Fund said that after the sharp decline, the recent market sentiment has been marginal repair. Today’s Politburo meeting further stabilized market expectations and tamped the bottom area. This meeting directly pointed to the main contradictions in the market and made clear arrangements: 1) in terms of epidemic prevention and control, it is required to “effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development according to the new characteristics of virus variation and transmission”, “minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development”, indicating that the epidemic prevention and control policy has changed from “priority of epidemic prevention and control” to “both prevention and control and economy”; 2) In terms of “stable growth”, it further emphasizes “stepping up the planning of incremental policy tools” and “increasing the intensity of contingent regulation and control, and grasping the advance and redundancy of policies under the guidance of objectives”. 3) For real estate, on the one hand, it made it clear to “support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand”, and continue to promote the deregulation of real estate demand side policies. On the other hand, the meeting also called for “optimizing the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds and promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market”, which is expected to drive the improvement of the real estate capital chain. 4) For foreign trade and foreign investment, the meeting called for “adhering to the expansion of high-level opening-up, actively responding to the demands of foreign-funded enterprises for convenience in doing business in China, and stabilizing the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment”.
Southern Fund said that on the whole, the Politburo meeting set a positive tone, conveyed the determination to stabilize the macro-economic market and strengthened the market’s confidence in steady growth. In addition, the transfer rate of stock trading was lowered to protect market confidence. Although historically, the reduction of stock transaction transfer fee has limited impact on the medium and long-term trend of the market, the positive signal released by the policy adjustment of regulators to protect the confidence and maintain stability of the capital market is conducive to boosting market sentiment and guiding positive expectations. Finally, the epidemic continued to ease and further improved market expectations. In the future, as the epidemic situation eases, the steady growth policy will further concentrate its efforts and accelerate new construction, which is expected to drive the economy out of the trough and reverse the pessimistic expectations of the market.
Huatai Bairui Fund said that today’s Politburo meeting was held as scheduled. On the whole, the discussion on various aspects boosted market confidence. From the perspective of economic growth, it is proposed to “strive to achieve the expected goal of economic and social development throughout the year and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range”. The market has gradually realized the difficulty of achieving the target growth rate of 5.5%, but the policy tone still shows the adherence to the target growth rate. It is also proposed to “pay close attention to planning incremental policy tools” to reflect the continued strength of fiscal, monetary and other policy toolkits. From the perspective of epidemic prevention and control, it is proposed to “effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development”. We believe that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be weakened as much as possible. In terms of real estate regulation, on the basis of adhering to the principle of housing without speculation, it is proposed to “support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions”. Combined with the fact that the strength and scope of urban implementation policies are still expanding, we believe that the current stage is still the window period of real estate care. In terms of the Internet, it is proposed to “promote the healthy development of the platform economy”, which played a positive role during the epidemic. We believe that the comprehensive employment and external development perspective will still support the rational and healthy development of the Internet. Overall, the Politburo meeting boosted market confidence, partially alleviated concerns about economic growth, real estate, the Internet and other fields, and is expected to see the further implementation and strength of policies after the epidemic. Among them, the Hong Kong stock market structure is biased towards traditional economy and Internet large market capitalization companies, which performed better in today’s rebound.
YONGYING Fund said that the Politburo meeting released positive signals, and the regulators were also actively taking care of the market. 1) The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held this morning clearly responded to the core issues concerned by the market. First, emphasize the smooth operation of the capital market, which is conducive to repairing market confidence; Second, clarify the determination to maintain the economy, promote steady growth and increase the proportion, and benefit the infrastructure, real estate and consumption sectors; Third, support the healthy development of the platform economy and benefit Hong Kong stock Internet, A-share media and other sectors. 2) In addition, the attitude of regulators to take care of the market is obvious. Yesterday, China Securities Registration announced that it would reduce the overall stock transfer fee by 50%. The Sino US negotiations on the delisting of China concept shares are making positive progress, which also contributed to the repair of today’s market sentiment.
Shen Chao, a macro strategy analyst at HSBC Jinxin, believes that the sharp rise in the market today is mainly due to the convening of the Politburo meeting, which has released a series of heavy signals for the current epidemic prevention and control policies, macro policies, real estate, platform economy and capital market. Under the influence of the early epidemic, the market was worried about the strength of policies. This meeting stressed that it would still strive to achieve economic goals, alleviating the excessive pessimism of the market. We believe that after the epidemic is stable, the steady growth policy will also be launched with greater efforts, and the pressure on enterprise performance will be alleviated. At the same time, under the pressure of employment and economy, the early policies on real estate and platform economy are expected to slow down, and the market will have a more friendly policy environment. At present, the market is at the bottom of history, so we can be more optimistic about the follow-up market.
epidemic and the most pessimistic moment of the economy may have passed
market is expected to continue to repair
For the future market of a shares, many fund companies believe that in the current position, there is no need to be too pessimistic about a shares. At present, the valuation of A-Shares has fallen to an all-time low and the allocation value is prominent. In the medium and long term, the opportunities of A-Shares will outweigh the risks.
China Merchants Fund said that looking forward to the future, with the recovery of the supply chain, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, which will be finalized in early May, there will still be some room for rebound in the growth sector with intense pre valuation compression. At the same time, we will also focus on the necessity of economic demand recovery and the main line of real asset inflation, focus on the cycles and consumption related to steady growth, and continue to be optimistic about sectors and stocks with undervalued value, performance and definite performance growth, and marginal changes.
Boshi Fund said that despite the gradual tightening of monetary policy overseas, under the background of China’s overall controllable inflation level, China’s monetary policy remains stable and loose, and the liquidity remains reasonably abundant. The current policy and liquidity are very friendly to a shares. After the early correction, the risk of A-Shares has been released to a certain extent. Under the condition that many uncertain factors at home and abroad still exist, the possibility of repeated shocks cannot be ruled out in the short term; In the current position, there is no need to be too pessimistic about a shares. In the medium and long term, the opportunities of A-Shares will outweigh the risks. We can still pay due attention to the opportunities of emerging manufacturing industries represented by science and technology and energy, such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, etc.
China Europe Fund said that in the process of venting market sentiment, it should carefully deal with the fluctuations caused by additional negative or positive emotions, pay attention to the changes in fundamentals, and take more “reverse thinking” for the high volatility of the market. The setting tone of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee once again confirms the importance the central government attaches to the economy. Repeated outbreaks and closed management have put downward pressure on the economy, and the demand for stimulus policies is also increasing significantly. The market has fully priced the impact of the epidemic, geopolitical conflicts and other factors.
The middle and late second quarter may usher in an inflection point of style in the process of market stabilization. It is expected that the performance of value stocks will still be an opportunity before the reversal of fundamental leading indicators, and the rise of overseas interest rates will also help increase the relative earnings of value stocks. Subsequently, with the stabilization of the economy and the successive implementation of industrial policies, it is expected to gradually start to pay more attention to growth stocks in the late second quarter.
Huaxia Fund believes that the main reasons for the decline of the market since this year include the tightening of the Federal Reserve beyond expectations, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the most pessimistic stage of the three factors for market expectations is gradually passing. At least one or two factors may be relieved in stages after May Day. At the same time, the policy bottom has been very clear, more and more stocks have fallen into the medium and long-term buying range, and the medium and long-term bottom of the stock index has been basically clear, The foundation for short-term rebound is still available.
In the follow-up, we should closely track the changes of the national epidemic trend after May Day, the improvement progress of the total amount and structure of social finance growth, and the rhythm signal of the Federal Reserve’s policy. On the whole, with the overall market valuation falling into the historical bottom range and the suppression factors of risk appetite gradually alleviated, although the index may still be repeated, the long-term investment opportunities have become more and more optimistic.
China Southern Fund said that looking forward to the future, the Politburo meeting will further strengthen investor confidence, and with the easing of the epidemic, the market’s expectations of investment commencement and economy will be repaired, and the market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover. In addition, on May 4, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve has a high probability of accelerating interest rate hike and opening table contraction. The landing of external risk factors will further consolidate the bottom of the market. In the medium and long term, the current A-share valuation has fallen to an all-time low and the allocation value is prominent.
YONGYING Fund said that in the shock and grinding of the bottom of the market, with the continuous emergence of positive signals from China, it is relatively optimistic on the margin. On the Chinese side, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee issued a voice to inject a booster into the market again, boost market risk appetite, and look forward to the gradual implementation of more effective policies in the follow-up. The recent positive changes in epidemic prevention policies are expected to improve the expectation of economic growth, but we still need to pay attention to the epidemic development in Beijing and other provinces. The next turning point signal is that the epidemic situation in China will be effectively controlled in the future. The second turning point signal is that the wide credit policy is actually implemented, and the direction of economic repair is more determined. Overseas, the US bond interest rate has fallen recently, but we still need to pay attention to the possible disturbance caused by the interest rate increase and table contraction of the Fed’s interest rate meeting in early May. If the US inflation falls significantly in the future, the third turning point signal will be the change of the Fed’s attitude, and the global market for the repair of risky assets may usher in at that time.
Huabao Fund believes that with the confirmation of the downward inflection point of this round of epidemic, the primary drive for risk preference repair has been turned on. It should be recognized that the landing of the subsequent steady growth effect, the emergence of endogenous credit expansion and the arrival of the expected peak of the Fed’s tightening are all variables that need to be closely observed. Although the current fundamental environment is complex and the signal on the right side of the market has not yet appeared, A-Shares have entered the deep value range from the perspective of risk return price ratio of long-term allocation.
Huatai Bairui Fund said that in the short term, the impact of the spread of the epidemic and the fear of RMB devaluation will gradually reduce, but the medium-term impact of the epidemic on consumption and foreign manufacturing can not be ignored, and certain policies are needed to hedge and improve. At the same time, in the context of pressure on small and micro enterprises and employment, priority should be given to risk prevention. The Politburo meeting in April actively set the tone and objectively discussed the current difficulties and future development direction, which boosted the Internet, real estate infrastructure and consumption. In the medium term, China’s advanced manufacturing industry chain will continue to improve, and the importance of science and technology industry chain and talents will increase, forming China’s comparative advantage and global competitiveness. The meeting actively set the tone and superimposed the highlights of the first quarterly report. The short-term market is expected to rebound. We will dig deep into prosperous industries in the direction of policy support and continue to lay out high-quality companies with better than expected potential.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, said that on the whole, one of the current uncertainties lies in the recurrence of the epidemic, but the trend of epidemic control in Shanghai is good, and the prevention and control in Beijing is also very timely. Secondly, it may be the tightening of overseas monetary policy, including the possible contraction of the Federal Reserve in May. However, we believe that external factors are always secondary, and the downward trend of the US economy has been clear, and the interest rate hike will gradually stop in the second half of the year. Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, after the epidemic is effectively controlled in May, we believe that A-Shares may return to the process of recovery and rise. On the sector, combined with the direction highlighted in the Politburo meeting, we believe that infrastructure, cycle, consumption and technology are relatively certain to benefit from the recovery.
CITIC Prudential Fund believes that looking forward to the future, the meeting further strengthened the policy bottom. At present, the overall market valuation has been reduced to a level similar to the historical bottom. Depending on the impact of supply factors such as the implementation of stable growth policy and epidemic prevention and control, there may still be some uncertainty in profits. However, on the whole, the cumulative correction time of the market before the rebound is long and large, the valuation is relatively low, and the market already has the midline value. From the perspective of sentiment indicators, the daily turnover of the market fell below 800 billion, which also shows that the market sentiment indicators also show signs of entering the “bottom grinding” range.
From the medium-term perspective, China needs more space, strong resilience, and relatively sufficient policy space. Although the short-term market is more likely to be driven by sentiment and uncertain, it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic about the medium-term prospect. In the follow-up, we will continue to observe the implementation of the “steady growth” policy and the progress of epidemic prevention and control to judge the medium-term trend, which is the key to whether the Chinese market can continue to stabilize in the follow-up.
AXA Puyin Fund said that with the easing of the epidemic, economic stabilization and the resumption of production and work of enterprises, the market is expected to continue to repair. The disclosure of the first quarterly report is coming to an end. The performance exceeds the expected growth and the performance thunderstorm makes the stock price show a polarization trend. We are optimistic about the growth boom track with good performance, such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and military industry; In terms of steady growth, focus on infrastructure, consumption, real estate and other industries that may recover rapidly after the impact of the epidemic subsides. Although the market fluctuates, we believe that in the medium and long term, we can create more sustainable and stable earnings by looking for high-quality companies that can grow through the cycle.
Western profit Fund said that under the interference of internal and external environment, the convening of the meeting and the timely disclosure of its contents gave investors confidence. Combined with the current market valuation level, the equity market is expected to gradually stabilize and rise. In the past few years, China’s economy has grown steadily and the performance of listed companies has increased significantly. On the basis of substantial adjustment in the early stage, investment opportunities in various fields are more prominent. Structurally, the growth sector with more decline in the early stage is expected to take the lead in attracting investors’ attention in the field of the combination of the better than expected first quarter report and the weakened impact of the epidemic in the second quarter. The opportunities of consumption and steady growth may perform better with the recovery of market risk appetite. The bond market is looking for new investment opportunities in the context of a better economy. The time of the epidemic and the most pessimistic economy may have passed. When there is not much room for the aggregate monetary policy, the steady growth policy and the focus on inflation need to be closely followed by the bond market. Historically, the market always goes out of the trend in the process of investors’ hesitation and comes to an end when consensus expectations are formed.
Wu Qiran, a macro strategy researcher of xingyin fund, said that this Politburo meeting passed the determination to protect the economy to the market, and made clear the policy direction of promoting steady growth and overweight, which further released a positive signal to the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. We expect that the A-share market is also expected to stabilize and repair. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the two main lines of China’s steady growth and overseas resource inflation.
optimistic about steady growth of a shares, reversal of difficulties,
high boom continuation related sectors
In terms of sectors, Harvest Fund said that the current market is at the bottom shock stage, which is optimistic about the rebound, maintains the judgment of rich future structural opportunities, and is relatively optimistic about steady growth (such as infrastructure and real estate), dilemma reversal (such as logistics and agriculture) and high boom continuation (such as new energy, semiconductor and military industry).
China Europe Fund believes that after the short-term continuous rebound in the market, it is recommended to pay attention to the benefit stimulus policies and industries such as infrastructure industry chain and real estate with advantages such as valuation and dividend rate. Continue to be optimistic about new infrastructure areas with high growth and high certainty in the medium term, especially energy infrastructure, green power and digital infrastructure. Considering that the “inflection point” is coming in the second quarter under the current situation, it is suggested to continue to increase the focus on the main line of oversold growth. Based on the judgment that it often takes a long time to stabilize the market oscillation, the configurable window period of the above industries is still long, so there is no need to rush to “rebound”.
China Southern Fund said that in terms of industry allocation, short-term stable growth is the core idea, and the demand brought by the acceleration of infrastructure investment is the most determined direction of the whole year. It is recommended to choose the sectors benefiting from the acceleration of new construction, such as cement, industrial metals, steel, etc. Global inflation is high. CPI may rise moderately in the second and third quarters of this year. Pig prices are expected to pick up after the industry’s production capacity is cleared. It is suggested to pay attention to the pig breeding sector. Judging from the annual report and the first quarterly report, the growth industries, such as lithium battery, wind power, photovoltaic and other industries, are still in the direction of high prosperity. After the recent decline, the problem of overvalued value has been digested, which deserves special attention in the medium term.
Huabao Fund believes that the short-term market risk appetite is improved and there is an oversold rebound, but the reversal still needs to be verified by growth stabilization. Therefore, in the short term, it is still recommended to lay out industries with good or improved performance on the premise of reasonable valuation and grasp the direction of high winning rate investment: (1) increase the expectation of steady growth: leading real estate and high-quality regional banks with improved expectation on the supply side; (2) Inflation chain: copper, gold, aluminum, coal, oil, oil transportation and agriculture; (3) Consumption recovery from the improvement of the epidemic: express delivery, medicine, food processing, beer, etc. In the medium-term dimension, high boom industries and boom repair industries with reasonable valuation can be arranged: (1) high boom tracks such as new energy; (2) New infrastructure: digital economy.
Qianhai open source Fund said that looking back, with the consolidation of the bottom area, the market is expected to usher in phased repair in May. Structurally: 1) consume core assets, benefit from the improvement of the epidemic situation, and advance, attack and retreat; 2) Real estate infrastructure, both security and policy driven; 3) For the growth of science and technology, it is recommended to select from bottom to top in combination with valuation and performance certainty.
Cathay Pacific Fund said that looking forward to the future, we believe that the improvement trend of the whole internal and external environment is a high probability event. Although the process is likely to be repeated, the general trend of long-term improvement will not change. On the sector, we continue to pay attention to the real estate industry chain and double carbon industry chain. Real estate is the key to steady growth this year. At this stage, after valuation repair, we will pay attention to the data improvement rhythm of industry fundamentals in the future, focusing on real estate leaders, building materials, household appliances, light industry and other sectors. The dual carbon industrial chain focuses on lithium, batteries, green electricity, components, new power systems and semiconductors.
CITIC Prudential Fund believes that the focus directions of the sector include: 1) there are still stable growth related to policy expectations in the short term: real estate leaders, urban commercial banks and construction; 2) Consumption under the clue of epidemic situation (leisure service / hotel / food and beverage); 3) New infrastructure direction, including digital infrastructure (digital economy, 5g communication, big data center, Internet of things), energy infrastructure (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage).
policy warm wind boost Hong Kong stocks
Internet consumption sector recovers
Today, Hong Kong stocks collectively closed up sharply, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 4.01%, recovering 21000 points; Hang Seng technology index rose 9.96%. Industry sectors rose collectively, led by Internet technology stocks, with Alibaba, jd.com and meituan up more than 15% and BiliBili up more than 12%. Education, home appliances, gambling, cars and other sectors rose higher, with ideal cars up more than 8%.
Several ETF products related to Hong Kong stocks rose directly.
For the reasons for the explosive rise of Hong Kong stocks today, Feng Chencheng, fund manager of Huabao Hong Kong stock Internet ETF, said that recently, although the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is still strengthening, the market has gradually stabilized and rebounded after the number of new cases of the Shanghai epidemic showed signs of an inflection point. Today, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to clearly put forward: “we should promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy.” Stimulated by this major positive signal, the share price of Internet companies rose rapidly, and many Hong Kong stock Internet related ETFs rebounded significantly.
Luo Ming, the manager of the China Europe Fund, expressed his optimism about the overall situation of Hong Kong stock market, which reflected the “stable political situation” of China Europe Fund. The two core points are: first, economic development still needs to be taken into account under the “clearing” policy, or more emphasis will be placed on economic development; second, the key spirit of promoting the healthy development of the platform economy. Internet related enterprises account for a large proportion in the Hong Kong stock market. Today’s strong performance led to the rise of the index and the sharp rise of new economy and consumer related stocks. Looking ahead, we are optimistic about the high-quality companies in the Hong Kong stock market. At present, the valuation of these companies is at a low level. There are mainly the following aspects: 1) major companies in the Internet industry, which are the most innovative companies in China’s economy; 2) Consumer related companies to respond to opportunities after the epidemic is repaired; 3) Other targets related to steady growth, such as real estate.
Di Xing, manager of Guofu global technology interconnection fund, said that the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on the morning of April 29, and there was a major adjustment in the economic policy of the platform. From the statement of “promoting the stable and healthy development of the platform economy” at the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council on March 16, it was further adjusted to “promoting the healthy development of the platform economy and issuing specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy”, It shows that the attitude of regulators towards Internet companies is becoming more and more positive, which also means that the two-year-old Internet platform regulatory policy may be close to the policy goal. We believe that this is the main reason for the explosive rebound of Hong Kong stock Internet sector and Hong Kong stock.
Qianhai open source Fund said that today’s rebound in Hong Kong stocks mainly came from the boost to market confidence on the news side. On April 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work and review the national talent development plan during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The general secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping presided over the meeting. The meeting stressed: we should effectively control key risks and keep the bottom line of systematic risks; We should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market; We should respond to market concerns in a timely manner, steadily promote the reform of the stock issuance registration system, actively introduce long-term investors, and maintain the smooth operation of the capital market; We should promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, said that the main reason for the rise of the science and technology sector is that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy. In fact, the stock price downturn of Internet platform companies in the early stage was mainly due to the implementation of a series of regulatory measures such as antitrust, which temporarily affected the profit growth and inhibited the valuation. If the chaos of the platform in the later stage can be rectified and the regulatory policy can come to an end smoothly, we believe that large technology stocks will first usher in the repair of valuation, then the profit growth will rebound, and the stock price may return to the normal level in the early stage.
Deppon Fund said that the great counterattack of Hong Kong stocks was affected by the superposition of various reasons. In terms of news, on April 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to review the national talent development plan during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which emphasized the views of promoting the healthy development of platform economy, which played a certain role in stimulating the market. The previous meeting of the financial Committee of the State Council on March 16 and the meeting of the national Standing Committee on March 21 also clearly proposed to take targeted measures to stabilize the development of capital market, In addition, the regulators of China and the United States have maintained good communication on China concept shares and have made positive progress.
These reasons will make investors see better expectations and further enhance their confidence. Secondly, after previous adjustments, many Hong Kong stocks have been in a very prominent position of investment value. The self-help repurchase of shares by listed companies and the strong inflow of funds to the South have also contributed to the rebound of Hong Kong stocks emotionally. The above are all good signals for the Hong Kong stock market, so the rebound of the market is expected.
Hong Kong stocks are expected to get out of the valuation repair market in the short term
focus on Internet, real estate, hard technology, infrastructure, consumption and other sectors
For the future market of Hong Kong stocks, Feng Chencheng, fund manager of Huabao Hong Kong stock Internet ETF, said that the current valuation of the Internet industry is at the bottom of history, and the policy pressure has been reduced. After the emergence of the policy bottom, companies that are greatly disturbed by policies in the early stage and still have high certainty of medium and long-term growth may have rapid valuation repair, and the valuation bottom is expected to appear after the policy bottom. Although there are still many uncertainties in the current international and Chinese situation, the epidemic has been quickly controlled in Beijing, and the situation in Shanghai has steadily improved. In addition, the Politburo meeting has decided to strengthen the steady growth policies and measures. Under the expected impact that the antitrust rectification of Internet platform companies is about to end, with the lifting of policy repression, Hong Kong stock Internet companies will gradually enter the stage of structural valuation repair. The recent development of the epidemic is the key to determine the trend of the stock market. With the early suppression of the spread of the epidemic in all regions of the country and the improvement of market sentiment, Hong Kong stock Internet ETF, as an elastic target, is expected to continue the strong rebound momentum.
Di Xing, manager of Guofu global technology interconnection fund, said that we are more optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market after the festival and believe that the Internet, real estate, hard technology, infrastructure, consumption and other sectors are expected to perform. The policy signals transmitted by the Politburo meeting are generally very good for the Internet, and the signals released by this Politburo meeting have improved greatly on the margin. In the short term, Internet companies are expected to start growing quarterly from the second half of this year, and the long-term valuation will be repaired due to the end of supervision.
The valuation of the real estate sector is still at the bottom. It is expected that more high-energy cities will introduce rescue policies in the future, and the industry is developing in a healthier and better direction. Some high-quality leading real estate enterprises, with smooth financing channels and adverse market expansion, have shown greater toughness and tension in the period of market integration. We believe that the valuation has been excessively depressed and there is expected to be a valuation repair market in the short term.
In addition, April may be the low point of corporate profits. With the gradual stabilization and recovery of the economy and the improvement of corporate profits, seriously undervalued Hong Kong stocks will perform.
Qianhai open source Fund said it was cautious about the future market optimism of Hong Kong stocks, rather than cautious optimism. The decline of the Hang Seng Index in 21 / 22 has fallen to the bottom of the historical range at the valuation level, and Pb still breaks the net after incorporating many consumer and new economy companies. The current price should already include a lot of risk premium. At present, what the market is worried about is related to performance growth, including macro-economy, the impact of epidemic prevention on the industry and so on. It is believed that it is only a matter of time before the policy side attaches importance to the economy, China’s economy maintains long-term growth and overcomes the epidemic. Therefore, considering the position of Hong Kong stocks, it may be in the bottom range and the situation is improving. It should be appropriate to start optimistic about it. The reason for caution is that at the level of individual stock operation, there may be unexpected downside risks due to various adverse factors.
In the future, we are optimistic about two aspects: 1. Stable growth related industries, especially those with performance support and policy support, including infrastructure, real estate, energy and power, upstream raw materials, etc. 2. Industries previously subject to policy and international pressure and obvious pressure on valuation, including Internet, optional consumption, etc.
YONGYING Fund said that for the Hong Kong stock market, similar to a shares, the epidemic affected the economic fundamentals, resulting in a significant weakening of the overall stock market profit. After the second quarter, if the effect of China’s steady growth is gradually realized and the attitude of the Federal Reserve changes after the easing of overseas inflation, the Hong Kong stock market, which is more sensitive and loyal to fundamentals, may usher in a more obvious rising market.
The following factors need attention in the near future: 1) the progress of the epidemic in China; 2) Steady growth and landing of real estate; 3) The pace of China’s fiscal advance and loose policy; 4) The Federal Reserve accelerated the process of reducing the table.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, said that we have always been optimistic about Hong Kong stocks. On the one hand, its fundamentals follow China’s economy, and China’s recovery is still the main theme, although it is disturbed by the epidemic in the short term. Once the epidemic prevention has won a phased victory, we will see a rebound in economic data and a reversal in the fundamentals of the stock market. Secondly, we can see that the valuation of a considerable number of Hong Kong stocks has been significantly lower than the reasonable level. In addition to the science and technology sector affected by the Internet platform policy, there are also the real estate industry chain sector, medicine sector and consumption sector, all of which have good cost performance.
AXA Puyin Fund said that the Hong Kong stock market rose sharply and the Internet sector took the lead in rebounding. Recently, the two major concerns about the Internet may usher in a turnaround.
In terms of platform economy, China’s regulation has entered normalization, and the most pessimistic moment has passed. China’s basic policy framework includes: platform economy (antitrust, data security, and the regulatory framework has basically taken shape), industry regulation (culture and entertainment, Internet Finance). The Politburo meeting stressed the need to introduce and implement normalized supervision and support the healthy development of platform economy, which is an important turn after the second half of 2020. Since April, the rectification of individual enterprises whose game version number has been issued and the follow-up is still in progress is also expected to be implemented to stabilize investor sentiment.
Deppon Fund said that the Hang Seng index is now back to around 20000 points, and the subsequent characteristics of Hong Kong stocks will be more obvious. Many high-quality stock valuations have reached a good position, which has been a very friendly environment for investors on the left. From the perspective of fundamentals, many stocks have fallen out of deep value, and the high-quality targets have been nearly adjusted in place. After the emotional fermentation, the bottom of the market is expected to enter the bottom building stage. At the current node, many high-quality targets in science and technology sectors deserve attention. In the second half of the year, with the gradual implementation of the policy, the value of the enterprise will gradually appear.
Shanghai Bank Fund believes that Hong Kong stocks rebounded slightly after the market crash in March. Although they fell back due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in April, with the significant relief of the recent epidemic, market confidence began to recover gradually. Today’s Politburo meeting document expressed that specific measures will be introduced to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy. The market believes that the high-quality development of Internet giants in the future will be more rule-based. In the past ten years, the risk premium of constant index (constant index) is below 29% of the median valuation, which is very attractive in the past ten years. From the perspective of constant index valuation, it is below 1% of the median valuation of constant index in recent ten years. With the listing of zhonggai shares in Hong Kong in the future, the epidemic situation will improve, the production and life will gradually recover, and the market confidence will be repaired. We are optimistic about the high dividend yield sector of Hong Kong stocks represented by banks and public utilities, and the prospect is good. In the future, the policy support will continue to strengthen, and the valuation has reached a relatively low historical level and the Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks with greater flexibility.
