Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : beat inflation with inflation! From mandatory consumption to optional consumption
On the whole, the current policy promotion speed has not been significantly accelerated, and steady growth should not be overly optimistic. However, considering the low base in the second half of last year, real estate and infrastructure investment is still expected to maintain a small positive growth in the second half of last year, and the export growth rate is expected to decline slightly, but it has not yet become a drag on the economy. After the epidemic, consumption promotion policies have been introduced one after another, and consumption is expected to achieve V-shaped recovery and become the biggest bright spot of the economy. In terms of inflation, the oil price center moves upward as a whole, superimposed with the rebound at the bottom of pig prices, and the inflationary pressure will rise significantly in the second half of the year, which will significantly restrict China's monetary policy.
Beat inflation with inflation. From top to bottom, under the quasi stagflation environment in which the overall macro clock turns to credit decline and interest rates rise in the second half of the year, the consumption style is expected to achieve better relative returns. Combined with the comparison framework of bottom-up industry valuation level and profit expectation, the investment value of consumer goods and offline economic recovery related industries must be more prominent. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: 1) with the gradual rise of inflation expectations, the agriculture and mandatory consumption sectors related to CPI are still the main market of the whole year; 2) The offline economy related industries with strong performance recovery expectations after the epidemic, such as express logistics, catering, tourism, airport aviation and media, are expected to lead the market rebound; 3) With the promotion of economic stimulus policies, traditional consumption sectors such as food and beverage and household appliances are also expected to usher in a turnaround.
Bohai Securities: the beer sector will continue to benefit from the gradual recovery of consumption scenes after the epidemic
In April, with the continuous adjustment of the sector, the valuation of some leading segments has been close to the low point in the past decade, and the investment value has appeared. The demand for quick-frozen food and prefabricated vegetables under the catalysis of the epidemic has increased, making the sector open the short-term repair market. At the current time point, we believe that each fine molecule industry has configuration value, and we suggest continuous attention.
In terms of sectors, high-end Baijiu with greater certainty is still recommended. In terms of popular products, it is suggested to select the dairy industry with downward cost determination during the year and the beer sector with relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission. The beer sector will continue to benefit from the gradual recovery of consumption scenes after the epidemic, with the positive impact of price increase and high-end products, and high growth is expected. To sum up, we temporarily give the industry a "neutral" investment rating and recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the consumer sector greatly impacted by the epidemic is at the starting point of the general trend of recovery
The general office of the State Council issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption, mainly involving basic food, catering, retail, tourism, duty-free, automobile, household appliances and other industries. We believe that short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term good pattern of the economy. Under the favorable policies, the consumer sector is expected to usher in a marginal improvement, and the leading enterprises still have long-term allocation value. The consumption promotion policy of the general office of the State Council is biased towards the programmatic document. In the future, there will be more large-scale tax and fee reduction and relief measures waiting for specific implementation, so as to help market players burst out greater development vitality and give better play to the driving role of consumption on economic growth.
From the perspective of epidemic prevention and control, the consumer market in the "post epidemic era" is expected to usher in a marginal improvement. The consumer sector previously impacted by the epidemic is at the starting point of the general trend of recovery, and the fundamentals of relevant leading enterprises usher in repair opportunities, which will show a more brilliant performance under the resonance of the dual factors of industry prosperity recovery and market penetration improvement. Recently, the stock prices of leading consumer enterprises have been relatively strong, and the inflow of Chinese institutions and overseas funds has accelerated, reflecting the market's optimistic outlook for the future.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : look at the industry trend from the household appliance consumption stimulus policy! Sorting out industrial chain targets
In April 2022, Beijing issued a policy to promote green and energy-saving consumption. From April to September this year, Beijing green and energy-saving consumption vouchers of more than 300 million yuan will be issued to consumers in Beijing. The coverage will be extended to emerging household appliances, with large discounts, which is of exemplary significance.
We expect that all parts of China are expected to gradually strengthen the activities of using consumer vouchers, replacing old ones with new ones and sending household appliances to the countryside, and the categories of household appliances will be gradually transferred from household appliances to emerging household appliances, so as to promote the renewal of household appliances and the release of new demand. On the category side, with the easing of the epidemic in China and the continuous landing of household appliance consumption stimulus, we expect that China's major household appliances with high penetration (such as air and ice washing, smoke stove and color TV), major small household appliances (such as rice cookers and microwave ovens) and emerging categories with relatively low retention (such as floor sweepers and projectors) are expected to benefit.
In addition, taking into account the recent intensive measures taken by many national ministries and commissions to expand the effective supply of green and low-carbon consumer products, improve the recycling system for used cars and household appliances, and encourage the development of new business forms and new models such as "Internet + recycling", we expect this year to be a year for China's household appliance manufacturing industry to transform into a comprehensive green and energy-saving industry, and consumers' awareness of environmental protection and energy conservation is growing, The energy-saving household appliances listed in the list of green household appliances are expected to become the main sales force, which is good for the sales volume of relevant enterprises.
In terms of investment suggestions, [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ] (China's refrigerator / freezer business accounted for 20% of operating profit in 2021, which may be upgraded or new purchase demand in the short term due to the continuous epidemic), [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ] (real estate + second curve), [ Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) ] (real estate + fast growth), [ Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ] (cleaning leader, the peak season is approaching) [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ] (fundamental recovery + overseas profit improvement, and there may be new demand for the short-term epidemic), [ Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ] (fundamental recovery, and there may be new demand for the short-term epidemic), [ Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) ] (low base in the second quarter + exchange rate depreciation is good for exports).
open source Securities: optimistic about the rebound opportunity of consumer medical sector after returning to work
We are optimistic about the rebound opportunities of the consumer medical sector after the resumption of work and production, including medical services (especially consumer services), traditional Chinese medicine (covid-19 treatment + brand OTC consumption attribute concept), retail pharmacies (the passenger flow to the store is expected to rebound after the resumption of work and production), medical beauty (strong consumption attribute) and other segments.
Specifically, we are optimistic about covid-19 prevention and treatment, and recommend OTC sector of products and brands of traditional Chinese medicine. We believe that the centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicine is not expected to decline in price, but based on its cost and under the guarantee of a certain profit space of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises. Secondly, in terms of the scope of centralized purchase, the OTC of brand traditional Chinese medicine is less likely to be included in the medical insurance catalogue and has more consumption attributes. The main sales channel is at the retail end rather than public medical institutions, so it is expected that it is less likely to be included in the volume purchase.
Therefore, OTC of brand traditional Chinese medicine has certain attributes of centralized purchase and risk avoidance, and has high price maintenance ability.
In addition, the same store growth rate of retail pharmacies has gradually warmed up, and the passenger flow of pharmacies has increased under the resumption of work and production. The same store growth rate of retail pharmacies has gradually warmed up, and the passenger flow of pharmacies has increased under the resumption of work and production, which is expected to usher in performance improvement in 2022q2. By the end of 2021, the growth rate of leading retail pharmacies in the same store has recovered as a whole. The operation of 2022q1 drugstore is affected by a certain epidemic, and the recovery rhythm of the same store growth rate has slowed down. Based on the base number of 2021q2 has returned to the normal level, we expect the same store growth rate of 2022q2 retail drugstore to return to the growth of previous years, which is expected to improve month on month (Q1) and achieve steady growth in performance. The downward inflection point of the epidemic in some areas appears. Based on the significant increase in the same store growth rate of pharmacies in April 2020 under the resumption of work and production, we are optimistic about the increase of passenger flow of pharmacies under the resumption of work and production in Q2, which will help the performance pick up.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : grasp the relevant targets of C-end home consumption scenarios benefiting from the epidemic
We suggest to grasp the relevant targets of the C-end home consumption scenario benefiting from the epidemic, and there is a significant increase in the demand for quick-frozen & prefabricated dishes, compound & convenient food, staple food, noodles and snacks. Quick frozen food: under the background of the epidemic, the sales volume at the C-end has benefited from the growth of household stock demand, the short-term prosperity of the quick-frozen & prefabricated vegetables sector has increased, the logistics has been gradually liberalized, the supply bottleneck has been alleviated, and the incremental demand at the C-end can be met. The relevant beneficiary targets, Sanquan / Anji, Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , and Barbie, need to track the compensation degree of group purchase for store closure. Condiment & convenience food: pickled mustard has a strong demand attribute. Under the background of the epidemic, the demand for convenience food and compound food has increased. The relevant beneficiary targets are pickled mustard, Yihai / Tianwei and Kangshifu / Tongyi. Staple food: dried noodles & Snacks: the demand for hoarding goods at the C-end of the dot epidemic has increased, which is good for medium and long-term packaged food. Specific target: Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) : we believe that 1q22 will maintain positive growth in revenue under the high base of 1q21, and we expect 2q22 revenue and profit to increase in a single quarter Chen Ke Ming Food Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002661) : in the case of multi regional distribution of dot epidemic, the demand for hoarding and purchasing noodles at the C-end has increased, and we expect the revenue growth to accelerate in April. Dairy products: the impact of the epidemic on dairy products is controllable. The operation of leading dairy enterprises is stable and upward throughout the year. The income of dairy enterprises is expected to achieve a better recovery. We are optimistic about the increasing trend of profit margin of leading dairy enterprises.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : looking for the flexibility after the epidemic repair, it is recommended to allocate department stores properly
Looking forward to the future, due to the impact of the epidemic, we expect the operation of Listed Companies in March may be unsatisfactory. However, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in the future, the optional products will gradually recover. In particular, some department store stocks with low price to book ratio will have certain flexibility. In view of the overall consumption capacity of first tier cities is better than that of second and third tier cities, we first promote the Department Store Leader of first tier cities. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the sales data of gold jewelry sector in March 2022 may perform poorly, but from the perspective of the whole year of 2022, gold jewelry is still a relatively optimistic sub sector. Suggestions for next week: Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) .
Huafu Securities: the impact of the short-term epidemic on automobile production and sales is higher than expected, and it is optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the reconstruction of the automobile industry pattern in the medium and long term
On April 25, the State Council issued the opinions of the general office of the State Council on further releasing the consumption potential and promoting the sustainable recovery of consumption, proposing to steadily increase the consumption of automobiles and other bulk commodities. The automobile related policies in the document include: ① no new automobile purchase restriction measures shall be added in various regions, the automobile purchase restriction shall be gradually cancelled according to local conditions, and the transformation of automobile and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management shall be promoted; ② Establish and improve the management mechanism of automobile refitting industry and accelerate the development of automobile aftermarket; ③ Completely abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of second-hand cars, ④ study further relaxing the restrictions on pickup trucks entering the city, ⑤ support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles. The overall policy is not more incremental.
In terms of investment suggestions, the impact of the epidemic on automobile production and sales in the short term is more than expected. In the medium and long term, we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the reconstruction of the automobile industry pattern. It is suggested to layout the automobile sector on bargain hunting: 1) after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of the whole vehicle is more reasonable; The prospect of independent rise is promising. It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Smart cars, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) . ③ Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
