Key investment points:
In December, the lithium battery sector index was significantly weaker than the CSI 300 index. In December 2021, the lithium battery index fell by 9.45% and the new energy vehicle index fell by 7.36%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.99% in the same period. The lithium battery index was significantly weaker than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
In mid December, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales continued to double and grow month on month. In December 2021, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sold 531000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 114%, a month on month increase of 18.0% over November, and the monthly sales in December accounted for 19.06%. The sales increased year-on-year for 18 consecutive months, mainly due to the low base in the same period, the concerted efforts of Chinese and foreign automobile enterprises, and the significant improvement of consumer recognition. In November 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 20.80gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 95.97%, of which ternary materials accounted for 44.23%; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and AVIC innovation ranked among the top three.
Upstream raw material prices mainly rose. As of January 11, 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 312500 yuan / ton, an increase of 50.59% over the beginning of December 2021, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term; The price of lithium hydroxide was 244400 yuan / ton, up 22.99% from the beginning of December. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. The price of electrolytic cobalt was 501500 yuan / ton, up 2.35% from the beginning of December, with a short-term overall high shock; The price of lithium cobaltate was 423500 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from the beginning of December; The price of Sanyuan 523 cathode material was 274000 yuan / ton, up 17.60% from the beginning of December; The price of lithium iron phosphate is 117000 yuan / ton, up 30.0% from the beginning of December. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 560000 yuan / ton, up 1.82% from the beginning of December, and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; The electrolyte is 120000 yuan / ton, flat compared with early December, and is expected to be dominated by high-level shocks.
Maintain the investment rating of “stronger than the market” in the industry. As of January 11, 2022: the valuations of lithium battery and gem were 66.80 times and 48.02 times respectively. Combined with the development prospect of the industry, the rating of “stronger than the big market” of the industry was maintained. In December, the performance of the lithium battery sector was significantly weaker than that of the main indexes, mainly due to the excessive increase in the early stage and the significant changes in the description of the industry at the Political Bureau meeting before and after.
Combined with the industry dynamics outside China, price trend of subdivided fields, monthly sales volume and industry development trend, the industry boom continues to rise as a whole. Considering the changes of relevant contents before and after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the current industry valuation level and the impact of the decline of subsidies in 2022 are uncertain, it is still recommended to carefully close the investment opportunities of the sector in the short term. The large correction of the sector in the early stage does not rule out a rebound, but it should not be overly optimistic. In the medium and long term, the development prospect of new energy vehicle industry outside China is determined, and the sector deserves special attention. At the same time, it is expected that the performance and trend of individual stocks will also be differentiated. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of leaders in subdivided fields.
Risk warning: the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected; Sharp price fluctuations in segments; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The progress of lithium extraction from Salt Lake exceeded expectations; Systemic risk.
