After the super bull market in the global bulk market in 2021, the performance benefit of upstream raw material end enterprises and the cost pressure of downstream processing enterprises have gradually become prominent.
upstream and downstream performance differentiation of chemical industry
In recent days, upstream chemical enterprises have frequently heard of the sharp increase in the performance of benefiting from the price rise of products.
On January 13, Jiangsu Sopo Chemical Co.Ltd(600746) (600746), mainly engaged in the manufacturing and sales of chemical raw materials and products, disclosed that the performance forecast for 2021 showed that during the period, the company is expected to realize a net profit of 2.3 billion yuan to 2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.069 billion yuan to 2.269 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 894.34% to 980.81% year-on-year; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 2.28 billion to RMB 2.48 billion. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 2.039 billion yuan to 2.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 845.47% to 928.41%.
Jiangsu Sopo Chemical Co.Ltd(600746) after the asset restructuring in December 2019, the coordinated development of three industrial chains of coal chemical industry, fine chemical industry and basic chemical industry has been realized. In the coal chemical industry chain with acetic acid as the core, the company’s acetic acid production capacity ranks first in China and third in the world.
Jiangsu Sopo Chemical Co.Ltd(600746) said that in 2021, affected by the improvement of market supply and demand and the high prosperity of China’s chemical industry, the prices of the company’s main products acetic acid and derivatives increased significantly year-on-year. In recent years, the company has continuously promoted the cost reduction and efficiency increase strategy, and the production process and device control level have been continuously improved. Under the combined action of the above factors, the company’s performance increased significantly.
In 2021, the market price of acetic acid reached new highs. At the end of April, the market price once exceeded 8000 yuan / ton.
According to the Research Report of Kaiyuan securities, the preparation process of acetic acid in China is mainly methanol low-pressure carbonyl synthesis. On December 14, 2020, the spot price of acetic acid reached 5300 yuan / ton, while the low point in 2020 was 2030 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 161.08%. In 2021, many acetic acid plants outside China shut down unexpectedly, which once again stimulated the rapid rise of acetic acid price and pushed China’s acetic acid price to a high level in recent years.
Driven by the concept of price rise, Jiangsu Sopo Chemical Co.Ltd(600746) the stock price showed a continuous upward trend in the first nine months of 2021, with an increase of more than 300%.
The high price of upstream chemical products undoubtedly aggravates the cost pressure of downstream enterprises.
On the 13th, Liao Ning Oxiranchem Inc(300082) (300082) announced that the purchase cost of ethylene, the company’s main raw material, increased by about 32% year-on-year due to the decline of international crude oil inventory and market concerns about tight supply, which boosted the overall rise of crude oil prices. In addition, Jiangsu oak Chemical Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, carried out capacity expansion, transformation and maintenance of production units from March 6 to April 26, 2021, and the production capacity was reduced due to factors such as epidemic situation and energy consumption control, resulting in an increase in corresponding costs. During the reporting period, the comprehensive gross profit margin of products decreased by about 4 percentage points.
Affected by this, although the sales volume of the company’s main product polycarboxylate water reducer polyether monomer increased by about 20% year-on-year in 2021, the sales revenue increased by about 21% year-on-year; The production and sales volume of lithium battery electrolyte solvent increased rapidly, with sales volume of about 27000 tons and gross profit of about 120 million yuan, which still failed to relieve the downward pressure on performance.
In Liao Ning Oxiranchem Inc(300082) 2021, it is expected to realize a net profit of 345-355 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.33% – 11.85%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 329 million to RMB 339 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.21% – 9.54%.
profit surge of coal and coke enterprises
Compared with chemical products, the coal market will be hot in 2021. Although prices dropped significantly in the fourth quarter due to policy regulation, related enterprises still maintained a good profitability under the strong price center.
On January 13 Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) (601015), the performance forecast for 2021 was disclosed. During the period, the company is expected to realize a net profit of 1.5-1.6 billion yuan, which is expected to increase by 1.306 billion yuan to 1.406 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year (after adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 672.5% to 724%; The net profit of non deduction is RMB 1.49 billion to RMB 1.59 billion, which is expected to increase by RMB 1.316 billion to RMB 1.416 billion compared with the same period of last year (after adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 758.2% to 815.8%.
For the reasons for the substantial increase in performance, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) said that the prosperity of the coking industry was better in 2021, and the sales prices of the company’s main products continued to rise; At the same time, the annual production and sales of the company’s main products increased significantly, of which the production and sales of coke and BDO increased by about 25% and 50% year-on-year respectively. In addition, the company enjoyed a year-on-year increase in the investment income of participating companies in building new coal chemical industry.
According to public data, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) by the end of June 2021, the company has an annual design capacity of 7.8 million tons of coke, 300000 tons of methanol, 370000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 250000 tons of LNG and 60000 tons of BDO, and the coke production capacity has ranked among the forefront of the country.
In 2021, under the background of “carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”, there are more environmental protection and energy consumption policies. On the whole, coke and chemical products are in a tight balance between supply and demand, and coke prices and profits are at a relatively high level.
In mid October 2021, 2205, the main contract of China’s coke futures, was the highest at 3873.5 yuan / ton, with a maximum increase of more than 84% compared with the lowest price of 2096 yuan / ton in March. Since then, affected by policy regulation, the coke price fell to 2200 yuan / ton in half a month.
However, despite the price plunge, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) business performance was still good in the fourth quarter. The company previously disclosed that the coke sales revenue of the company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 3.116 billion yuan; The average unit price of coke was 3039.27 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 69.97%.
In recent years, the coke market has rebounded significantly.
Baocheng Futures Research Report shows that with the active resumption of production of downstream steel mills, the trade atmosphere of coke spot market is good. As of January 10, some steel mills in Hebei have implemented the third round of coke increase of 200 yuan / ton.
In the futures market, as of the closing on January 13, the main coke contract was reported at 3106 yuan / ton, up more than 40% from the low point in November 2021.
