The disclosure of annual report performance forecast of A-share listed companies has gradually entered an intensive period. According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of the closing on January 12, 2022, a total of 228 A-share companies had good results. While the overall performance of listed companies maintained good growth, there was differentiation between sectors.
Taking the lower limit of forecast net profit growth rate as the reference value, among the listed companies with disclosed performance forecast, the top 10 companies with net profit growth rate belong to chemical, petroleum, pharmaceutical and biological, steel, nonferrous metals, coal and other industries. Relying on the “fattening” performance of rising raw material prices, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) led the petroleum and chemical sector to become the “king of making money” in the annual report. Under the dual carbon target, 2021 is a challenging year. For thermal power enterprises, it can be said that it has experienced a “dark moment”, and the thermal power sector has become a loss stricken area.
price rise “fattening” chemical industry
Listed companies in the petrochemical industry will make a lot of money in 2021.
On the evening of January 12, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) disclosed the performance forecast. It is expected that the company’s net profit in 2021 will increase by 71 billion yuan to 75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 374% to 395%. The sales of the company’s main oil and gas products increased both in quantity and efficiency.
In 2020, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) achieved revenue of 1.93 trillion yuan and net profit of 19.006 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) it is expected to realize a net profit of 90 billion yuan to 94 billion yuan in 2021.
On the evening of January 11, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co.Ltd(002274) announced that it is expected that the company will realize a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan to 1.7 billion yuan attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021, an increase of 776.08% to 830.84% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 1.55 billion yuan to 1.65 billion yuan, an increase of 985.46% to 1055.49% over the same period of the previous year.
On the company’s performance in 2021, the relevant staff of the company said in an interview with the Securities Daily, “we mainly produce nitrogen fertilizer. The price of nitrogen fertilizer has indeed increased, but compared with soda ash and other chemical products, the increase is not large. Last year should be the best year in our history.”
On the evening of January 10, more than 20 listed companies issued performance forecasts, and 10 companies doubled their profits in advance, with chemical listed companies accounting for half of the seats. Among them, the “chemical + new energy” concept stock Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) has the highest pre increase rate. The company expects the net profit to increase by more than 11.8 times year-on-year in 2021.
The performance of Listed Companies in glyphosate plate is also outstanding. On the evening of January 10, the listed company Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.Ltd(600389) in the glyphosate industry released a performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be 780 million yuan to 865 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.88% to 158.26%.
For the reasons for the performance growth, the company said that it was mainly because the chemical and pesticide industries ushered in a business cycle in 2021, the market demand for the company’s products remained strong, the sales price of its main products rose sharply year-on-year, and the profitability was significantly enhanced.
“The performance of Listed Companies in glyphosate industry is generally good. The performance of listed companies similar to the dual concept of \’glyphosate + silicone\’ is better, and the downstream preparation enterprises are relatively weak.” Some employees in the chemical industry disclosed in an interview with reporters.
Liu Dongyuan, a Zhongyu information analyst, said in an interview with the Securities Daily, “In 2021, under the co fermentation of epidemic situation, extreme weather, China’s carbon reduction and dual control, the price of chemical raw materials showed a collective explosive rise based on the prominent mismatch between supply and demand. In particular, the chemical products led by upstream raw materials and midstream basic materials in the first three quarters ushered in the \’price rise tide\’ that has not been seen for many years since the 2008 financial crisis, And this bull market cycle continued until October. In particular, raw materials related to the new energy industry, such as silicon materials and lithium battery materials, are more prominent. “
thermal power enterprises have become the hardest hit areas with huge losses
Compared with the chemical and new energy industries with significant net profit growth, thermal power enterprises have become the hardest hit areas with losses.
Among them, Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) it is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be – 1.8 billion yuan to – 2.038 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1.882 billion yuan to 2.12 billion yuan compared with 82 million yuan in the previous year; Meanwhile, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses in 2021 will be about – 1.82 billion yuan to – 2.058 billion yuan, which will decrease by about 1.774 billion yuan to 2.012 billion yuan compared with the loss of 46 million yuan in the same period of last year.
Shenyang Jinshan Energy Co.Ltd(600396) said that due to external factors, the company’s coal price increased significantly year-on-year in the reporting period, and the company’s power generation and heating costs were upside down.
According to the announcement released by Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , according to the preliminary calculation by the financial department, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 of – 1.985 billion yuan to – 1.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.674 billion yuan to 2.874 billion yuan compared with the profit of 889 million yuan in the same period of last year.
For the reasons for the loss, Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) said that the coal price continued to rise sharply in 2021, and the coal price rose sharply and reached an all-time high, resulting in general losses for the company’s coal-fired power plants. The company’s annual cumulative unit price of coal converted into standard coal is about 1097 yuan / ton (excluding tax), an increase of 442 yuan / ton (excluding tax) compared with last year, with a year-on-year increase of 67%, increasing the company’s annual fuel cost by about 5.3 billion yuan.
In addition, Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) also expects a net loss of 760 million yuan to 1.14 billion yuan in 2021, and a net profit of 6.086 billion yuan in the same period of last year; Due to the sharp rise in coal prices, the fuel cost of the company increased significantly, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased significantly year-on-year.
It is no surprise that thermal power enterprises will suffer huge losses in 2021. According to the analysis and forecast report on the national power supply and demand situation in the third quarter of 2021 released by the China electricity Union statistics and data center, in the first three quarters of last year, China’s power coal supply continued to be tight, coal prices continued to rise sharply, and coal power enterprises suffered large losses.
In sharp contrast to the loss of thermal power, at the other end of the seesaw, coal enterprises will make a lot of money in 2021.
According to the data, Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) it is estimated that the net profit will increase by 278%, 7316% and 326% in 2021. Among them, Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) mentioned that the contribution of the coal sector to the company’s profits increased greatly over the previous year.
For the loss of thermal power, Yang Jie, a researcher of Yimei Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that, on the one hand, the price of coal outside China rose sharply in 2021. The average annual closing price of 5500k in Beifang port was 1045 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 79.5%, which seriously exceeded the average profit and loss cost of thermal power enterprises of 640 yuan / ton in previous years, and the increase of imported coal also reached 124%, The more power generated by thermal power plants, the more losses; On the other hand, China’s hydropower industry was relatively dry in 2021. From January to November last year, the hydropower generation decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, and the proportion of clean energy power generation decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, resulting in an increase in the demand for thermal power generation. From January to November 2021, the thermal power generation increased by 9.9% year-on-year.
In the situation of power generation loss, in order to ensure China’s power consumption, thermal power plants still maintain power supply, resulting in the continuous expansion of the loss surface and degree of thermal power plants.
However, with the state’s regulation of coal prices, the worst days of thermal power enterprises are expected to be in the past.
“The thermal power industry is expected to improve its performance in 2022.” Yang Jie believes that from the perspective of thermal power generation, the improvement of China’s coal production capacity has increased the stability of supply. “The rice bowl of energy must be in your own hands” means that under the current situation that clean energy can not effectively replace thermal power, the dominant position of thermal power and the guarantee capacity of coal must be sufficient to deal with similar climate crises and international energy crises, Therefore, the exit of coal capacity is expected to be limited. With the improvement of coal supply, the improvement of long-term cooperative pricing mechanism and the multiple guarantees of price law, the sustainability of high coal price operation is insufficient, and the long-term cooperative coverage of power plants is required this year. Therefore, for thermal power plants, both the market coal price and comprehensive coal cost will be greatly improved compared with 2021. From the comprehensive operation of thermal power enterprises, several major power generation enterprises in China have increased investment in clean energy, which will also effectively improve the overall benefits.
