After the continuous correction, the new energy track ushered in good news: according to the latest data released by the passenger Federation, the upper limit of the subsidy scale for new energy vehicles in 2022 is not locked, and the subsidy will run through 2022. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach about 25% in 2022.
Boosted by the good news, new energy stocks rose one after another on January 12. Analysts believe that the new energy track still has investment space. Yang Ruiwen, manager of Jingshun Great Wall Fund, pointed out that the new energy vehicle has changed. Electric intelligent vehicle is the most wonderful industrial direction in the next decade. He is optimistic about the intelligent development trend in 2022.
higher than expected performance led to a rise in share price
According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to December 2021 was 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of passengers, said that the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has actually brought huge incremental space, and the subsidy amount has increased by at least more than 10 billion yuan. The passenger Federation is expected to increase the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach about 25% in 2022.
Boosted by the good news, stocks in the new energy industry chain rose one after another on the 12th, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) once rose by more than 5% and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) rose by the limit.
Cao Chunlin, fund manager of ChuangJin Hexin new energy vehicles, said that the large increase of new energy vehicle related stocks since 2021 was not caused by the combination of funds, but actually caused by the performance exceeding expectations: first, the battery technology progress was faster than expected. In 2021, the battery withstood the huge pressure of rising upstream costs and relied on technological progress and the expansion of market scale, Digested the pressure on cost. In addition, the models of pure electric platform began to increase significantly, which not only reflected the advantages in design, but also realized a significant reduction in cost. Second, intelligence and electrification complement each other, improving consumers’ sense of experience and acceptance.
Yang Ruiwen, manager of Jingshun Great Wall Fund, pointed out that the end of the new energy vehicle industry may be far from coming, but the situation has changed. The data of electric vehicle sales in 2021 continues to exceed market expectations, giving birth to the plate market. However, it should also be noted that the prices of lithium ores and various chemical materials in the upstream of new energy have increased sharply due to the periodic tension between supply and demand, which has brought obvious cost pressure to battery enterprises and vehicle enterprises.
performance growth resolves overestimation
When looking forward to investment opportunities in the new energy sector in 2022, “prosperity” and “valuation” are the main focus of fund managers.
Yang Ruiwen believes that in terms of the general trend, electric intelligent vehicles must be the most wonderful industrial direction in the next decade, but the development of new energy vehicles cannot be smooth sailing. At present, there are three major constraints to be solved: first, the manufacturing capacity of vehicle specific power semiconductors such as IGBT / MOS and SiC; Second, lithium ore supply capacity; The third is the supporting capacity of charging pile and distribution network.
Yang Ruiwen believes that it is expected that there will be obvious differentiation in the market of electric vehicle track in 2022. It is necessary to find alpha investment opportunities and be more optimistic about the intelligent development trend in 2022.
Zhao Yi, fund manager of ABC Huili, said that many investors believe that some new energy companies are overvalued, but in fact they are not. Most new energy enterprises, especially leading enterprises, have seen their share prices rise sharply due to their high performance growth. Dynamically, its valuation is still at a very low level. Truly high-quality new energy enterprises still have good investment value, and the recent adjustment provides a good time for long-term investment layout.
Cao Chunlin believes that the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry is still high. For the controversial valuation issues in the market, he took the lithium battery industry chain with a relatively large increase in 2021 as an example, and believed that the performance of Listed Companies in the lithium battery sector grew rapidly, which could resolve the overvalued value. According to his analysis, in the next 2-3 years, the performance growth of lithium battery industry will be faster in many growth industries, although it may be slower than that in 2021. With the rapid development of the industry, the valuation of lithium battery related companies has dropped to a more reasonable level in 2022, which is relatively low in all industries with high growth.
intelligence has reached the initiation point
In terms of specific investment opportunities, Cui Chenlong, manager of Qianhai open source fund, believes that the new energy track is a strategic opportunity with the attribute of “thick snow and long slope”. At the current time point, it is still in the early stage of the energy revolution, and the investment space is very large. Among them, photovoltaic, which has the most development potential in the field of power generation, and lithium battery, which is an essential carrier for electric energy savings, are of irreplaceable importance under the trend of this round of energy revolution. However, the wide application of lithium batteries is not just in the field of electric vehicles and 3C products, which is only a small part.
Cao Chunlin believes that lithium battery is still a link with investment value. In addition to automobiles, the rapid development of energy storage will add icing on the cake. It is expected that the shortage of lithium batteries and related materials in 2022 will be alleviated in the second half of the year. The internal differentiation has increased, and we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of leading enterprises that do not have particularly large fluctuations in product prices and rely on volume growth.
Yang Ruiwen pointed out that he is optimistic about the intelligent development trend of new energy vehicles in 2022. Although the whole vehicle is affected by the lack of core, the intelligent vehicle is still accelerating. With the gradual easing of the lack of core in the future and the departure of L3 intelligent driving, intellectualization will show an explosive trend, which may usher in a comprehensive beta opportunity.
Cao Chunlin said that intelligence and electrification complement each other. At present, intelligence is at the starting point of rapid development. Although the volume and performance can not be compared with lithium batteries, its outbreak will be much stronger than lithium batteries. Considering that intelligence may still be in the early stage and subject, the investment logic will be different from that of lithium battery. In the follow-up, we need to have a deeper understanding of the development trend of the industry and closely track the fulfillment degree of sales level.
