since the beginning of the year, the continuously adjusted new energy sector has finally ushered in “heavy benefits”!
Under the leadership of relevant leaders, the Jedi of the new energy sector fought back, and the new energy vehicle index rose 4.72% in one day, sweeping away the haze of continuous decline the day before yesterday.
Data as of January 12, 2022
What are the advantages of ? Is the new energy market going to restart?
positive 1: the subsidy policy will bring huge increment
On January 11, the Federation of passengers issued a report saying that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a great positive.
According to the newly released policy, the subsidy scale in 2022 is not locked from the originally expected maximum subsidy scale of 2 million vehicles, and the subsidy will be realized throughout the whole year of 2022.
The liberalization of subsidy policy has actually brought huge incremental space. The amount of subsidy has increased by at least more than 10 billion.
positive 2: the sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly in 2021
According to the data of the passenger Federation, in December 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475000, a year-on-year increase of 128.8% and a month on month increase of 25.4%. From January to December, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%.
positive 3: the expected sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will increase
With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of cost reduction ability, it is expected that the increment of new energy vehicles will be large by the end of 2022.
Therefore, the passenger Federation is expected to increase the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach about 25% in 2022. new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million , and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22% .
Data source: passenger car market information joint meeting, January 11, 2022.
positive 4: policies boost the development of new energy vehicles
Recently, the official wechat of the Ministry of industry and information technology said that it would strengthen efforts to promote the development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile and intelligent networked automobile and build an automobile power.
In fact, in the early adjustment of the new energy sector, Zhao Jian, huitianfu’s “first brother of new energy”, once said that these short-term adjustments are only normal fluctuations in the process of industrial development and will not affect the general trend of industrial development.
combined with past historical experience, these are actually some normal fluctuations in the development of things.
The most important thing for investment is to look at the development trend and context of this era. Therefore, in the medium and long term, these short-term fluctuations and adjustments are not terrible. The key is to grasp the long-term direction.
Zhao Jian
Huitianfu’s “first brother of new energy”
11 years of investment research experience and 5 years of investment experience
Huitianfu environmental protection industry equity fund manager
new energy is a long-term investment opportunity
Zhao Jian believes that new energy vehicles are a long-term investment opportunity.
first of all, this industry has a large growth space and a fast growth rate. with technological progress and the continuous promotion of global carbon neutralization policy, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles may be higher than expected by 2030.
secondly, under the background of carbon neutrality, China’s excellent enterprises have great prospects in the field of new energy vehicles. the automobile industry has a large market space, but in such a huge manufacturing field, the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the past was relatively general. Not only most automobile brands are overseas, but some core parts suppliers are actually European and American companies.
But in the past two or three years, Chinese enterprises have made great achievements in this round of new energy or intelligent electrification in the automotive industry! the rise of core components represented by power batteries has driven the rapid rise of our entire industrial chain, and our progress has accelerated significantly in the past two years.
Therefore, we believe that in this round of great changes in the automotive industry, on the one hand, the industry is growing rapidly. On the other hand, more importantly, Chinese enterprises may seize this round of change opportunity and slowly have a number of companies become bigger and stronger, just like some of our leading battery companies, standing at the top of the global supply chain.
Under such a background, in such a fast-growing industry, Chinese enterprises are rising rapidly, which means that in the future, China may have a number of very competitive companies in the field of new energy, which will be mapped to the stock market, which means that this industry may have medium and long-term investment opportunities.
Of course, the development of the industry will never be smooth sailing. It will have all kinds of disturbances and fluctuations, but slowly the waves wash away the sand. Finally, the truly competitive and excellent companies will stay and become more and more stable and stronger. Therefore, on the whole, we are very optimistic about the long-term investment opportunities of the industry.
short term fluctuation does not change the general trend of long-term improvement
For the short-term fluctuation of the new energy sector, Zhao Jian believes that it is only a normal fluctuation in the process of industrial development and will not affect the general trend of industrial development.
Zhao Jian said that after adjustment, the new energy vehicle sector is somewhat divided. The valuation level of some companies may still be relatively high, but the valuation of some companies is not too high.
Looking forward to 2022, there will still be more opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector, short-term adjustment may provide better boarding opportunities.
First of all, new energy vehicles may be one of the sectors with high growth rate in 2022. in 2021, the global sales of new energy vehicles will be about 6.3 million, and in 2022, it is expected that the global sales of new energy vehicles will be about 10 million, with an increase rate of more than 50%. From the perspective of the whole industry, there are not many industries with 50% growth rate.
Data source: China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , CICC 2022 outlook | new energy vehicle industry chain: new stage, new structure and new opportunities, 2021 / 11 / 9
secondly, in such an industry with a growth rate of more than 50%, a number of leading companies may grow faster than the industry. on the one hand, they will share the growth of the whole industry. On the other hand, based on the layout in the past few years and the improvement of competitiveness, the head company may further expand its market share. Therefore, it can be expected that many high-quality companies can be found in the new energy sector in 2022, which is also the premise for us to continue to have opportunities in the future.
finally, in terms of supply, it is expected to improve significantly in 2022. on the one hand, the national policy has made some fine adjustments, on the other hand, the industrial chain has made joint efforts to invest relatively large capital expenditure, so we judge that most links may be much better in 2022 than in 2021.
Therefore, if there are no new problems, there will be no problem with the overall “booming supply and demand” rate of new energy vehicles in 2022. on the whole, we are optimistic about the industrial development in 2022.
