Overall, yesterday, individual stocks in the A-share market rose more or less, more than 3300 stocks rose, and more than 100 stocks in the two cities rose by more than 10%. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1061.1 billion, up from 5.4 billion on the previous trading day. On the disk, prefabricated dishes, UHV, tourism, tobacco, covid-19 detection and other sectors rose at the forefront. Cement, steel, traditional Chinese medicine, real estate, port and other sectors led the decline. As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai index rose 0.84%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.39% and the gem index rose 2.64%. The net inflow of funds from the North throughout the day was 7.018 billion yuan, including 4.783 billion yuan from the Shanghai Stock connect and 2.235 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect.
The three major US stock indexes closed up slightly, with the Dow index up 0.11%, the NASDAQ index up 0.23% and the S & P 500 index up 0.28%. New energy vehicle stocks strengthened, with Weilai and Xiaopeng vehicles up more than 5%, Tesla and ideal vehicles up more than 3%. Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with Youdao and interesting headlines up more than 9%, tal up more than 8% and Alibaba up more than 4%.
At today's morning meeting of securities companies, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the track stocks rebounded as a whole, leading the hot spot, and the sustainability is not strong; China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that the wide credit signal has appeared, and the growth rate of social finance is expected to gradually pick up; In terms of plate opportunities, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) proposed that global auto enterprises can grow by pressing the acceleration key when going to sea.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) : track stocks rebounded as a whole, leading the rising hot spots. The sustainability is not strong
On Wednesday, the A-share market opened higher and went higher with a slight shock. In the morning, the stock indexes of the two cities jumped higher, the track stocks that continued to decline in the early stage rebounded as a whole, and the new energy lithium battery, photovoltaic equipment, automobile, food and beverage and other industries rose in turn, driving the stock index to rise steadily. In the afternoon, more industries joined the rebound, which boosted the continuous rise of the stock index. The Shanghai index basically showed the operation characteristics of unilateral shock rise throughout the day. On Wednesday, the stock indexes of the two cities rebounded significantly, but the trading volume continued to maintain at about 1 trillion yuan, and the characteristics of the stock game remained the same. At present, the hot spots in the market change frequently, the sustainability of leading hot spots is not strong, and the off-site funds are in a heavy wait-and-see mood. It is recommended to allocate them in a balanced manner.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : the wide credit signal has appeared, and the growth rate of social finance is expected to gradually pick up
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that the wide credit signal has appeared, and the growth rate of social finance was about 10.3% in January, which will gradually increase to 10.5% by the end of the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2022, driven by government bonds, especially new special bonds, the growth rate of social finance will still be guaranteed, and there is a high possibility of gradual broadening. According to the calculation of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , under the neutral assumption, the growth rate of social finance was about 10.3% in January and will gradually increase to 10.5% by the end of the first quarter.
However, it still needs to be pointed out that the biggest obstacle to wide credit is the lack of high-quality projects by banks, and the financing of urban investment and other subjects is still subject to policy restrictions, which need to be further relaxed. In the follow-up, it is not ruled out to continue to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates (monetary policy), accelerate the issuance of re loans and launch new structural monetary policy tools (structural tools), reduce the three red lines and loan concentration (real estate financing policy) and accelerate the issuance of special bonds (Government financing). Generally speaking, credit easing will go through three stages. The first stage is the policy disclosure triggered by the simultaneous economic downturn due to the decline of credit contraction. In this stage, social finance is characterized by the decline of growth rate, especially the growth of loans from residents and enterprises. In the second stage, the policy will continue to work, especially the liberalization of real estate and infrastructure financing policies. In this stage, social finance is characterized by obvious bill impulse, Or the off balance sheet financing stopped falling and rebounded, but the medium and long-term loans related to the endogenous economy are still strong; The third stage is that under the continuous policy stimulus, the long-term loan promotes the recovery of social finance confirmation, so as to start a new round of credit cycle. Overall, in 2022, with the overall situation of stabilizing leverage, with the support of structural policies such as carbon emission reduction support tools, small refinancing to support agriculture, as well as the support of RRR and possible interest rate cuts, the possibility of credit easing will increase, but the recovery process is expected to be relatively mild.
CICC: press the acceleration button when going to sea, and the growth of global auto enterprises can be expected
In 2021, the automobile export volume increased rapidly, the contribution of new energy vehicles and new markets increased, the automobile export volume in Europe and South America increased rapidly, and the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles increased significantly to 19%. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that 2021 is the first year for Chinese brands to go to sea. It is optimistic that China will become a global automobile manufacturing base. It is expected that the proportion of exports in output will continue to increase and exceed 30%, thanks to: 1) the technical reserves of core components, platform R & D capability and deep consumer insight to empower fuel vehicle products; 2) The leading electric vehicle industry chain, more mature electric vehicle product design and Chinese manufacturing advantages promote electric vehicles to overtake at sea corners.
Considering the factors such as market space, growth, competition pattern, logistics cost and policy risk, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that Russia and other European regions, ASEAN, South America, Australia and New Zealand have the potential to break through the market, and Europe is expected to become the main destination for the export of new energy vehicles. The head independent brand has been distributed in the overseas market for many years, and has initially constructed the sea paradigm, forming a sales scale of more than 100000 units. In the future, along the route of focusing on the core market + advantageous models + R & D / capacity / channel multi-dimensional support, it is expected to further shape the cognition of overseas brands and form incremental contributions.
