Boosted by beautiful data, the new energy vehicle industry chain sector ushered in an overall rise on the 12th. Some fund managers said that the new energy vehicle track still has broad investment space, and the electric intelligent vehicle is the “most wonderful” industrial segmentation direction in the next decade. They are more optimistic about the investment opportunities brought by the intelligent development trend in this direction in 2022.
new energy vehicle leaders have risen
According to the latest data released by the passenger Federation, the retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to December 2021 was 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, said that the liberalization of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has brought huge incremental space. The passenger Federation is expected to increase the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles to 5.5 million in 2022, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach about 25% in 2022.
Boosted by positive data, leading stocks in the new energy vehicle industry chain rose one after another on the 12th. At the close of trading on the 12th, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) realized the “one word” limit (up 10%), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose 5.28% and Byd Company Limited(002594) rose 7.07%. The new energy vehicle ETF rose more than 5% on the same day.
Cao Chunlin, fund manager of ChuangJin Hexin new energy vehicles, told the China Securities Journal that since 2021, stocks related to new energy vehicles have increased greatly, and the factor of funds holding together is the inevitable result of performance exceeding expectations. It is worth noting that the progress of battery technology is faster than expected, withstood the huge pressure of rising upstream costs, and digested the pressure of cost by relying on technological progress and market scale expansion. In addition, the models of pure electric platform began to be sold in large quantities, which not only reflected the advantages in design, but also brought a significant reduction in cost. Intelligence and electrification complement each other, and enhance consumers’ sense of experience and acceptance.
Yang Ruiwen, executive director of Jingshun Great Wall stock investment department, pointed out that the end of the new energy vehicle industry may be far from coming, but the situation has changed. The electric vehicle sales data in 2021 continuously exceeded the market expectations, giving birth to the plate market. It should also be noted that due to the periodic tight supply and demand, the prices of lithium resources and various chemical materials in the upstream of the new energy vehicle industry have increased significantly, which has brought obvious cost pressure to battery enterprises and vehicle enterprises.
The overestimation of is expected to be resolved through performance
When it comes to new energy investment opportunities in 2022, “prosperity” and “valuation” are the focus of fund managers.
Yang Ruiwen believes that from the perspective of the general trend, electric intelligent vehicles must be the “most wonderful” industrial subdivision direction in the next decade, but the development of new energy vehicles cannot be smooth sailing. At present, there are three constraints to be solved: first, whether the supporting capacity of vehicle specific power semiconductors such as IGBT / MOS and SiC can keep up with the industrial development; Second, whether the supply capacity of lithium ore is improved; Third, whether the charging pile, distribution network and other supporting facilities can follow up. Yang Ruiwen believes that the market of this track is expected to be significantly differentiated in 2022. It is necessary to find alpha investment opportunities and be more optimistic about the development trend of intelligence.
Zhao Yi of ABC Huili Fund said that many investors believe that some new energy vehicle companies are overvalued, but they are not. Most new energy vehicle enterprises, especially the leading enterprises, have experienced a sharp rise in share prices due to the rapid growth of performance. From a dynamic point of view, their valuation has been at a low level. Real high-quality new energy vehicle enterprises still have good investment value, and the recent adjustment provides a good time for the layout of long-term investors.
Cao Chunlin believes that the prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry is high. For the controversial valuation issues in the market, he took the lithium battery industry chain with a relatively large increase in 2021 as an example, and believed that the performance of Listed Companies in the lithium battery sector grew rapidly, which could resolve the overvalued value. In the next 2-3 years, the lithium battery sector will grow rapidly in many growth industries, although it may be slower than that in 2021. With the rapid development of the industry, the valuation of lithium battery related companies may fall to a more reasonable level in 2022, which is relatively low in the industry with high growth.
layout intelligent investment opportunities
In terms of layout strategy, Cui Chenlong, fund manager of Qianhai open source public utility stock fund, believes that the new energy vehicle track is a strategic opportunity with the attribute of “thick snow and long slope”. At present, it is still in the early stage of the energy revolution, and there is a lot of investment space. It should be emphasized that the wide application of lithium batteries is not just in the field of electric vehicles and 3C products.
Cao Chunlin also believes that lithium batteries are still an important link with investment value. In addition to automobiles, the rapid development of energy storage will add to its icing on the cake. It is expected that the shortage of lithium batteries and related materials will ease in the second half of 2022, and the internal differentiation will increase. Therefore, it is more optimistic about the investment opportunities of leading enterprises with no particularly large fluctuation in product prices and growth in volume.
Yang Ruiwen pointed out that he is more optimistic about the intelligent development trend of new energy vehicles in 2022. With the gradual mitigation of the “lack of core” of cars in the future and the departure of L3 intelligence, intelligence will show an explosive trend, which may usher in a comprehensive beta opportunity.
Cao Chunlin said that intelligence and electrification complement each other. At present, intelligence is at the starting point of rapid development. Although the volume and performance can not be compared with lithium batteries, its outbreak will be much stronger than lithium batteries. Considering that intelligence may still be in the early stage and subject, the investment logic will be different from that of lithium battery. In the follow-up, we need to have a deeper understanding of the industrial development trend and closely track the cash data at the sales level.
