Analysts believe that after a substantial adjustment of the market, it is often accompanied by style switching. Where will the future market style go? Take a look at the trading trend of leveraged funds.
The recent two financial data show that the entry rhythm of leveraged funds has slowed down since the beginning of the year, but the financing balance is still at a high level since 2021. As of January 11, the balance of financing between Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1814.214 billion yuan, of which the balance of financing was 1703.604 billion yuan and the balance of securities lending was 110.610 billion yuan, both slightly lower than that at the end of 2021.
By industry, the industries with the highest net financing purchases since this year are medicine, biology, media and computer; The industries with the highest net sales of securities lending are computer, medicine and biology, textile and clothing. In terms of individual stocks, China stock market news, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) and other large cap leading stocks are favored by financiers. In addition, traditional Chinese medicine and media stocks are also popular with leveraged funds.
the balance of the two financial institutions has decreased slightly this year, and medicine, media and computers are favored by financiers
On the whole, the balance of margin trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has shown a slow downward trend recently, indicating that investors' enthusiasm for adding leverage has cooled down. According to the data, as of January 11, the balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen financing was 1814.214 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.977 billion yuan compared with the end of 2021; Among them, the balance of financing was 1703.604 billion yuan and the balance of securities lending was 110.610 billion yuan.
Specifically, the overall financing balance has remained high, and has remained above 1.7 trillion yuan since late November 2021.
However, the balance of securities lending has gradually decreased since reaching the historical high of RMB 173.858 billion on September 10, 2021. From 2022 to January 11, the latest balance of securities lending was 110.610 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.53 billion yuan compared with the end of 2021.
It is worth mentioning that since last year, China's enthusiasm for opening credit accounts has always been high, and the number of two financial accounts has constantly reached a new high. According to China's settlement data, in November 2021, the number of investors with newly opened credit securities accounts in the market was 46100, including 45000 personal credit accounts and 11000 institutional credit accounts.
By the end of November 2021, there were 6.03 million dual finance account investors (individuals + institutions), which exceeded 6 million for the first time since 2016, an increase of about 449300 compared with the end of 2020.
By industry, as of January 11, the five industries with the highest financing net purchases in the seven trading days since 2022 were Pharmaceutical Biology (RMB 2.291 billion), media (RMB 1.913 billion), computer (RMB 576 million), electronics (RMB 350 million) and social services (RMB 256 million); The five industries with the highest net sales of securities lending are computer (185 million yuan), medicine and Biology (105 million yuan), textile and clothing (32.4913 million yuan), commercial retail (32.2056 million yuan) and transportation (28.9171 million yuan).
financiers favor traditional Chinese medicine and media stocks, with the purchase amount of 300 billion bonds ranking first
In terms of individual stocks, the data show that as of January 11, the stocks with the highest net financing purchases since 2021 are mainly concentrated in traditional Chinese medicine, media, tourism, securities and power equipment.
Leading stocks in several subdivided industries are favored by financiers, such as China stock market news, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) in the first seven trading days of this year.
China stock market news, with a market value of more than 340 billion yuan, had a net financing purchase of 974 million yuan in the first seven trading days of this year, and the two financing transactions accounted for 11.05% of the turnover. This year, as of January 12, China stock market news fell 9.30%. However, it is clear that the decline in share prices did not stop the buying enthusiasm of financiers. On January 10 and 11, the net financing purchases of China stock market news reached 126 million yuan and 34 million yuan respectively.
The hot traditional Chinese medicine sector has also won the favor of financing customers recently. The financing purchase amount of individual stocks such as Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) has also ranked in the forefront of the whole market since the beginning of the year. The Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Daan Gene Co.Ltd(002030) in the medical device sector were also net purchased by financing customers.
In addition, the power equipment sector has also been sought after by financing customers recently. The net financing purchases of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) are among the top in the market.
Media stocks are also popular, Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) the net financing purchase from January 4 to 11 was as high as 525 million yuan. On December 28, 2021, the company issued a fixed increase plan announcement, which plans to raise no more than 800 million yuan for AI intelligent marketing system project investment, live broadcast and short video intelligent marketing ecological platform project, repayment of bank loans and supplement of working capital, etc. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) once commented that the fixed increase investment promotes the development of virtual human, and the implementation of virtual human concept is basically good.
The dragon and tiger list data also shows that Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) has attracted great attention recently, including institutional funds. On January 11, the two institutions appeared in the buyer's seat of Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) dragon and tiger list, with a total net purchase of 117 million yuan. On January 12, Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) trading limit.
In addition, Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) , Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) and other media stocks have also been purchased with large amount of financing recently.
When style switching is in progress?
Li meicen, chief strategic analyst of Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) believes that after the substantial adjustment, the market style has been switched in most cases. From the perspective of market characteristics, investors still remember that before the Spring Festival in 2021, food, beverage and medicine reached new highs. In 2020q4 and 2021q1, food and beverage positions reached 20%. Four weeks after the Spring Festival, the food and beverage industry index adjusted by nearly 30%. In 2021, it became the leading role of "double carbon" and "new energy".
Li meicen said that at present, after a sharp decline in the market, the willingness of incremental funds to enter is low, and the whole is a stock game. Under the stock game, adjusting the structure has become a better choice for investors. Configuration, current market β It is big finance. It is suggested to pay attention to bank insurance, real estate chain and infrastructure chain.
In terms of style, according to the research of Mou Yiling, chief analyst of Minsheng securities strategy, in the first week of the year, Liangrong only bought the market growth plate slightly and sold the other style plates net.
Mou Yiling believes that the probability of stabilization and recovery of future demand is increasing. In the long-term dimension, the value outperforms the growth with directional certainty. However, it is still in the "expected deduction" stage, and it will take time for the cohesion of new market consensus. Growth investors can wait for a good switching opportunity, and value investors should also grasp the most certain path in demand recovery. Current recommendations: nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper), crude oil chain (oil service, oil transportation), real estate, banking, steel, coal and construction. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization (county consumption, agrochemical industry and seed industry).
Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of YueKai Securities Research Institute, believes that the funds are slightly hesitant and chaotic at the beginning of the year. The rising plate is mainly the valuation repair of the low-temperature plate, and the market is worried that the agitation in spring is gone. The policy expectation before the two sessions of the A-share "calendar effect" is expected to rise. According to statistics, the A-share market has performed well in the 15 trading days after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years, regardless of the winning rate or the average rise and fall, and it is difficult to end the agitation in spring. The logical support behind this round of market is: this round of market starts from the wide currency + wide credit brought by the expected rise of steady growth under the economic downturn cycle. At present, there is still room for wide currency, wide credit has yet to be effective, and both expectations have not been fulfilled.
