Today (January 13), the three major A-share indexes opened high. After the rapid decline at the beginning of the session, the weak pattern of the stock index was at a glance. The Shanghai index showed shock weakness, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index maintained a low shock trend. From the disk point of view, the rise and fall of industry and concept plates are different, led by the concept of prefabricated vegetables. The performance of real estate development, digital currency, coal and other plates is outstanding, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that it is not necessary to be too pessimistic about the market, but it should be noted that there is still the possibility of adjustment and decline in the small cycle rebound in the short term. From the perspective of allocation, it is difficult to grasp the rhythm of the next day of the repair day. The value sector with oversold and deterministic performance in the early stage of the game has valuation and repair momentum and allocation value.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that although the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the painful period of the industry will continue, the policy positive signal is obvious. After a certain period of transmission, the liquidity at both ends of supply and demand is expected to be marginally loose. Three main investment lines in the post crisis era deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the painful period; Main line 2: more attention is paid to long-term business; Main line 3: revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises.
At the current time point, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance can not only seize the opportunity of land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. They have significant comparative advantages and will fully benefit from the current downward cycle of the industry. In January, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) were recommended.
Galaxy Securities said that in the short-term dimension, the warmer policies promoted the valuation of the real estate sector. At present, it is in the combination of "bottom of fundamentals" + "bottom of policy". The policy is gradually transitioning from the credit end to the demand end. The key factors that previously suppressed the valuation have been mitigated. The current characteristics of "undervalued value, low position and high dividend" of the sector have sufficient safety margin and flexibility. The first quarter of this year is the best window for allocation. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of increased concentration and stable profits, the "three good real estate enterprises" with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that in 2022, the industry policy will focus on "stability" and adhere to the main tone of "housing, housing and non speculation". Under the guarantee of marginal easing of monetary policy and "guaranteed delivery of housing", the overall industry sales will show a stable downward trend; The shortage of enterprise funds may be alleviated, the industry concentration will continue to increase, and the leading market share of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is expected to continue to rise; The valuation of leading enterprises will continue to be repaired, driving the recovery of industry valuation as a whole. []
[Topic 2] digital currency
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that after the promotion of the Winter Olympic Games, the digital RMB will be further familiar to the market, and its industrial chain enterprises and traditional banking industry will benefit from it. On the one hand, digital RMB hardware equipment manufacturers will benefit from the market opportunities brought by digital RMB Hard Wallet, while software developers will benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of banking systems outside China. On the other hand, the cross-border application of digital RMB will benefit the traditional banking business through "spillover effect", with retail payment, foreign currency exchange and cross-border remittance bearing the brunt.
Open source securities mentioned that on January 4, the digital RMB (pilot version) app was officially launched, and 49 sub wallets were launched, involving shopping, travel, life, tourism and five other categories. According to the white paper on research and development progress of China's digital RMB, digital RMB adopts centralized management and two-tier operation, the central bank is responsible for issuance and life cycle management, and commercial banks and other institutions are responsible for exchange and circulation services. At present, the main operators include nine banks, including China, agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, postal savings, China Merchants, online merchants and Weizhong. Other small and medium-sized banks and institutions will also provide digital RMB services. Therefore, large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks will generate relevant system development, testing, operation and maintenance requirements, and bank it, security encryption, hardware equipment and other related companies are expected to benefit. []
[Topic 3] coal
Kaiyuan Securities believes that the current winter coal consumption demand has entered the seasonal peak stage, the daily consumption and replenishment demand may gradually weaken before the Spring Festival, and the current rebound space of coal price may be limited; However, from the supply side, after the peak season comes to an end, the focus of the policy may be to ensure safety. The current ultra-high load production intensity is unsustainable, superimposed with the impact of Indonesia's coal export ban, there is a great possibility of tightening the supply after the Spring Festival.
Huabao securities mentioned that China's demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that under the long-term logic, the cycle fluctuation of the coal industry will be weakened and the profit space will be stable. In the long run, the limited factors of coal supply are still, the bottleneck of supply growth is obvious, the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to invest in new mines is weak, and the economy is poor, the long construction cycle of new production capacity and complex approval procedures restrict the growth of coal production capacity, The dual carbon background determines that the coal supply will remain stable, and Sanxi and Xinjiang regions with excellent resource endowment will be strong. Enterprises with layout in such regions will continue to benefit from the process of increasing resource concentration. At the same time, the stability of coal price is very important to the healthy development of the whole industry, the periodicity of the industry will be weakened and the profit stability will be enhanced, The good cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years has also laid a solid foundation for the in-depth development of some coal enterprises to new energy, new materials and industries.
In the medium and short term, the investment opportunities in the coal sector are highlighted. In the medium and short term, the policy of increasing coal production and ensuring supply is expected to exit after the coal price is stable. Superimposed on the arduous task of six guarantees and six stabilities of macro-economy in 2022, the phased and regional economic stimulus policies may further stimulate the enthusiasm of upstream resource products procurement and promote the investment sentiment and return on investment of the coal sector.
In addition, the transformation and development has become a highlight of coal enterprises, and power coal will face the pattern of double increase in supply and demand in the future to achieve a basic balance; Coking coal sector may have both supply and demand decline in the future; The coke plate may achieve a tight balance between supply and demand on the basis of further supply contraction.
As the basic energy, coal still plays the role of ballast in the process of energy structure transformation. On the premise of providing a solid foundation for the rich cash flow of coal enterprises, they have transformed to the depth of the industrial chain and new energy and new materials on the basis of consolidating their main business, becoming a major investment highlight of the plate in the future. []
[theme 4] concept of prefabricated dishes
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that the lazy house economy promotes the rapid development of the prefabricated vegetable industry. Chinese households are increasingly dependent on industrialized food production and socialized food supply. Prefabricated dishes simplify the tedious steps of buying, washing, cutting and cooking, integrate quality, nutrition and taste, and cater to the lifestyle of young consumer groups under the fast-paced life. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China's Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market.
The agency further pointed out that the explosive growth of takeout not only introduced a steady stream of passenger flow and orders into the catering industry, but also improved the convenience requirements. The decline of young people's enthusiasm for studying cooking and the rise of women's enrollment rate and employment rate have greatly reduced the time spent by households in the kitchen compared with the previous decade. Prefabricated dishes that can ensure the taste of dishes have become the first choice for family cooking. Suggestions: 1) specialized manufacturer of prefabricated vegetables: Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ; 2) Involved in semi-finished food and beverage enterprises: Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ; 3) Enterprises with food manufacturing business: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Longda food.
Anxin Securities believes that there is room for the growth of China's Prefabricated dishes. Frozen food in China is mainly divided into quick-frozen hot pot ingredients, quick-frozen rice noodles and quick-frozen dishes. Among them, the traditional rice noodles (dumplings and dumplings) have entered the mature stage, the emerging rice noodles (such as hand grasping cakes and purple potato balls) and hot pot materials are still in the growth stage, and the dishes are in the introduction stage.
Open source Securities said that the prefabricated vegetable industry is in the stage of accelerated development and has broad development space. (1) B end: Prefabricated dishes can effectively reduce the cost of rent, raw materials and labor of catering enterprises, ensure the consistency of chain catering products, and have high operation efficiency; (2) C-end: Prefabricated dishes have high cost performance and good taste, which can effectively reduce the cooking burden of consumers and improve the quality of life. At present, the industry has obvious regional characteristics, the competition pattern is scattered, and it is still in the stage of horse racing and enclosure. In the future, with the gradual release of b-end and C-end demand, the industry has broad development space and a trillion market can be expected. []
