From the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, as several mainstream players in the mobile phone industry launched folding screen mobile phones one after another, and comprehensively lowered the price of the original universal one of about 20000 yuan to less than 10000 yuan, folding screen mobile phones began to officially move from the early taste to the mass market. For a time, there was a hot wave of folding screen mobile phones in the field of consumer electronics.
It is worth mentioning that through interviews and investigations, the reporter of securities times · e company found that although the current folding screen mobile phone technology and mass production capacity have developed by leaps and bounds compared with the previous ones, due to the market demand far higher than the manufacturers' expectations, the current market folding screen mobile phones are still in a state of oversupply. On Jingdong and other e-commerce platforms, Several folding screen mobile phones just launched recently are out of stock. In addition, at present, the software ecology of the folding screen mobile phone industry is not unified. Manufacturers producing a folding screen mobile phone of different sizes need to be matched with the software manufacturers in a certain way, which requires a large investment.
From the perspective of the development of the whole mobile phone industry, the industry competition is still very fierce, and has fully entered the era of stock competition, but the industry barriers are deep, and it is difficult for cross-border entrants to succeed. In the future, the industry will show the development trend of "high-end + cost performance". In addition, the mobile phone industry chip is still in short supply, However, at present, it is mainly the shortage of medium and low-end chips and the first wave of capacity shortage of high-end chips, which is expected to be alleviated by the end of 2022 or 2023.
folding screen mobile phones are still in short supply
Huawei is a pioneer in the field of folding screen mobile phones. Every time it releases new folding screen mobile phone products in recent years, it will trigger rush buying in the market, even speculation, and the supply of folding screen mobile phones is in short supply.
However, recently, mobile phone manufacturers such as oppo, Huawei and glory, as well as other manufacturers, have launched or plan to launch folding screen mobile phones, that is, at the stage of mass production and popularization of folding screen mobile phones, folding screen mobile phones are still in short supply. However, the main reason for this supply shortage is that the manufacturers' expectations of the market do not match the market demand, At the same time, the production cycle of folding screen mobile phone screen is long.
"After the release of the company's folding screen mobile phone, some old classmates and friends who haven\'t contacted me for many years came to me to help buy the mobile phone. Now this mobile phone is in short supply. We have stopped booking in many places because the supply cycle is very long." Recently, an insider of a Chinese mobile phone enterprise disclosed to the reporter of securities times · e company.
As for the reasons for the shortage, the person told reporters that the main reason was that the company's previous expectations did not match the market demand, the demand far exceeded the company's stock volume, and the production cycle of folding screen was relatively long.
It is understood that the biggest difference between folding screen mobile phones and ordinary straight screen mobile phones lies in the screen and hinge. The foldable screen adopts ultra-thin foldable flexible UTG glass. At present, China's listed companies such as Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (600552), Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) (300433), Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) (300088) have capacity.
Recently, after glory released the first folding screen mobile phone Magic V, Zhao Ming, CEO of glory terminal, also revealed in an interview with reporters: "Not long after the press conference, I have received numerous information and urged me to deliver the goods. Now it seems that the goods will be tight, because the demand is very hot, so we are also considering whether to adopt the way of pre-sale. Even if we let everyone line up, we will tell you when they can be purchased, and we will step up production later."
Recently, three new folding screen mobile phones have been launched in the mobile phone market, namely oppo find n, Huawei P50 and glory magic v. magic V1 was officially launched at 10:08 on June 18.
On January 12, the reporter of securities times · e company learned on JD e-commerce platform that oppo find n and Huawei P50 are out of stock at present. The customer service told the reporter that if users want to buy these two mobile phones, they can participate in the appointment for free, and then rush to buy them on time within the designated next batch of public rush purchase time. However, the specific delivery time after the rush purchase depends on the manufacturer's quantity. This situation is similar to that after Huawei released the folding screen mobile phone, both need to make an appointment and rush to buy.
In addition, the pre-sale glory Magic V was officially opened at 22:00 on January 10, and the self operated flagship store of JD glory belongs to the exclusive products of JD plus members, indicating that JD plus members need to be opened to rush purchase.
From the sales volume of folding screen mobile phones that have been released, the first batch of oppo find n is 30000 units, and the whole network has been sold out. On January 10, oppo announced that the reservation volume of its folding screen mobile phones oppo find n exceeded 1 million, while the sales volume of Samsung Z flip3 released earlier reached 700000 units in 39 days.
the future competition of folding screen mobile phones lies in software and services
Folding screen mobile phones have been born for several years, but at present, folding screen mobile phones have begun to become popular and popularized.
On the whole, folding has become the focus of competition in the current mature mobile phone industry. In the past, enterprises generally competed in the fields of camera, charging, chip and so on. From the perspective of the competition of folding screen mobile phones, at present, various companies mainly focus on the hardware of folding screen mobile phones, such as hinges, creases, weight of mobile phones, fall resistance, etc. how manufacturers can make the screen free of creases and how to reduce the cost of screen replacement for customers. However, in the future, the competition in the field of folding screen mobile phones will focus on software and services.
\u3000\u3000 "I think the future commanding height or key competitive point of folding screen mobile phones lies in software experience and services. The company's folding screen mobile phone software is discussed one app at a time, and the team has received a lot of feedback and is constantly following up. The proportion of products is customized based on user experience, and many innovations have been made. In the future, everyone will still converge on hardware, perhaps in terms of texture, etc Make a difference, but the future competition of the folding machine is mainly how to really bring different innovations in software and experience. " Recently, an insider of a Chinese mobile phone manufacturer admitted to the reporter of the securities times · e company that at present, the software ecology behind an enterprise making a folding screen mobile phone needs to re negotiate and customize with the software enterprise. The cost and investment are very large. The company even suspected itself halfway. At present, this situation requires Android to find a way to solve the problem in the software architecture, The company also puts forward corresponding needs. Personally, I think it needs some things from the eco manufacturer.
Glory seems to have seen the importance of software to folding screen mobile phones. At the Magic V press conference of glory folding screen mobile phones on the evening of January 10, glory CEO Zhao Ming spent nearly 40 minutes introducing the software of glory magic v. Zhao Ming said that without an excellent software system and system, it would be unrealistic for the brand to go to the high-end market, Moreover, software system is a very important part that can build consumers' unique experience. Glory must go its own way.
In Zhao Ming's opinion, folding products are a strategic part of glory's impact on the high-end market. Making a folding screen mobile phone is equivalent to the difficulty of making a series of flagship phones. However, folding screen mobile phones represent a breakthrough in some basic and systematic capabilities of glory, which is more helpful for Rong Yaojin to enter the next new field, equivalent to solving the problem from 0 to 1, The problems from 1 to 2 and to 3 will become much easier.
Zhao Ming believes that 2022 will be the first year of large-scale folding screen mobile phones and a year of massive and rapid expansion of the whole market.
"Why do you pay attention to folding screen mobile phones? I think folding screen is the embodiment of more scientific and technological strength. You can see more scientific and technological sense and experience thinking. It is a beautiful answer sheet of scientific and technological power. Here, many high-end consumers also have some strong curiosity and just need for such products." Xu Qi, vice president of realme, President of China and President of global marketing, said in an interview with reporters.
The research report from DSCC, a panel supply chain research and adjustment organization, shows that in the third quarter of 2021, the shipment of folding screen mobile phones reached 2.6 million units, with a month on month increase of 215% and a year-on-year increase of 480%. It is expected that the shipment of folding screen mobile phone market will reach 17.5 million units by 2022. In 2019, the shipment of folding screen mobile phones was only more than 500000 units, and in 2020, it was only 3 million units. However, in 2020, the global shipment of smart phones was 1.292 billion, and the proportion of folding screen phones is still very small.
the industry will develop towards high-end and cost-effective
It is worth mentioning that behind the competition of various enterprises for folding screen mobile phones, it is not only the high-end market competition of mobile phone enterprises, but also the stock competition game among mobile phone enterprises.
\u3000\u3000 "The whole of China is using mobile phones, and the pursuit of traffic growth has been unable to rise. At this time, all mobile phones have become stock. The peak of mobile phones in 2017 was 470 million in the Chinese market. So far, the latest market stock is only about 300 million. The whole competitive environment is different. We have entered the era of stock competition, which is not the largest manufacturer, but the largest user." Li Jie, President of Yijia China, told the reporter of securities times · e that mobile phones belong to the category of low-frequency purchase and high-frequency use, which determines that the mobile phone market will develop towards high-end and cost-effective in the future.
Li Jie believes that after experiencing high-end products, high-end users will be more willing to buy high-end mobile phones in order to continue this experience and dilute the impact of price on their purchase intention. High end mobile users are not affected by economic factors. As long as the products are good enough, they will still pay the bill. The target groups in the low-end market do not blindly pursue low prices without considering the performance of mobile phones. They are also more in pursuit of cost performance. Such customers also have the ability to distinguish products and hope that mobile phones can be used for a long time.
Li Jie revealed that at present, the market share of mobile phones at the price of 2000 yuan has reached more than 60%, and this trend will rise. The real changes in market capacity are reflected in the shrinkage of the low-end market. In addition, the average cycle of user replacement exceeds 24 months, and this cycle tends to increase gradually.
According to GfK data, in 2017, the global smartphone retail volume reached a historical peak, the market was close to saturation, and then the smartphone retail volume continued to decline. 2020 is the fourth year of continuous decline in global smartphone retail sales, with global smartphone sales of 1.267 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%.
In the Chinese market, according to IDC, an international research institution, the overall shipment of mobile phones in the Chinese market in 2020 was about 326 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%. Huawei, vivo, oppo, Xiaomi and apple ranked among the top five. In addition to Apple's year-on-year growth, the other four manufacturers all decreased by varying degrees.
What do enterprises think of mobile phone shipments in China in 2022? "At present, the shipment volume of China's mobile phone market is indeed gradually declining. We predict that the shipment volume of China's mobile phones will drop to about 290 million and 280 million next year. Now the players are strong, and the competition in the Chinese market will be more intense." Xu Qi told reporters.
On the other hand, although the competition in the mobile phone market is extremely fierce and the scale of the industry market continues to shrink, some cross-border people still enter or return to the mobile phone field in 2021, such as Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Geely Group, Coolpad, etc.
In this regard, Xu Qi said that the mobile phone market is first of all a very high-quality market, because the mobile phone market grasps the future of the whole Ecology (IOT, etc.) and is a very strong traffic entrance. Therefore, although it is difficult, it will attract some players. Secondly, the barriers of the mobile phone market are still very high. It is difficult for enterprises to establish a mobile phone brand from scratch. There are strong barriers from the upstream supply chain to the market, channel and brand construction, so there will be few new players in the industry.
However, Xu Qi believes that from the perspective of the global market, there is still a lot of room for development in the mobile phone market, such as Europe and India. Therefore, when realme was founded three years ago, it first chose to base itself abroad, and then slowly cultivate in the Chinese market. According to the reporter, Yijia mobile phone, realm, Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co.Ltd(688036) and other mobile phone enterprises have developed well in the overseas market.
it is worth mentioning that in 2021, affected by the covid-19 epidemic, China's mobile phone industry was once short of cores in the whole industry, which affected the mobile phone shipment. What is the current chip supply situation in the industry?
"The current situation in the industry is that there is a shortage of middle and low-end chips, but there is no shortage of middle and high-end chips, but the first wave of high-end chips is always in short supply, because the products and heat of the first wave are very high, and the main shipments and users\' demand are relatively high. The investment cycle of the whole chip is two years, even at that time (early 2021) The fastest time to invest is by the end of 2022 or 2023. " Li Jie told reporters.
